WEEKLY BTC/USD
Hi guys, i have been away for a while. Sorry about that, Its just bc find it very difficult to trade and post analysis at the same time ( yes !, im also lazy ). The thing is, the market reality changed so much and i need constantly to be in concentration on my trading, i decided to just trade more on the swings more frequently and less position trading for the longer term, knowing by now this market became a traders market instead of a Hodler one.
There is a few things i want to disclaim. I decided to sell 80% of my crypto on the last run up to 10K. I just did not had the confidence we would be breaking those levels, by technical reasons ( deathcrosses) and by the fundamental reasons of Crypto being overhyped, and overvalued( IMO). The uncertainties are big , to start with the ICO regulation coming anytime, high valued pipeline dreams, over-leveraged markets, illiquid sh**coins on insolvent exchanges, Tether and Bitfinex uncertainties, just to name a few. All of this leaves me to think that this market is over saturated for now, and even with the MSM attention, like the CNBC fast Money shills and events like consensus and other conferences, besides the amount of institutional interest , the price of BTC showed weakness all along.
-All in all , i do hope im wrong, bc i hate to short BTC, but to make a living i need to look objectively an realistically to what the charts are telling me, and work with that.
I will go some quick analysis on the weekly, keeping it as simple as possible.
Recap:
Bearish :
Price broke for the 3rd time the .618 Fib level of the last Bullrun and atm we are inside a Symm. triangle ( some are drawing desc. triangles- but im considering the wicks, and not only the bodies of the candles) although in a Symm. triangle is usually a no trade zone on higher timeframes, knowing they can break in either direction, This pattern tends most of the time to be a continuation pattern. On the other hand, the 50 weekly MA is still support and might give us the necessary for a bounce inside the triangle. especially if price manages close next Sunday the weekly candle above the 50 MA, than i expect some bullish activity to at least 8000. to add to that, Based on of my fav. indicator , the TD seq, BTC gave a nice short entry the moment it broke the 7 period MA and the red 2 started trading below the red 1.
- On a eventual breakdown , the Bearish Target to be met is at the long term channel top trend line. Its yet to be seen if another bearish continuation pattern might occur to re-evaluate the continuation of the bear trend. but those green boxes can give you an idea of where price will most likely reverse or bounce( the 128, 200 MA are also great references) if the previous level do not hold. The worst case scenario will be prob. a retest at the last ATH at 1.3 K. which would in theorie ( f it doesn't break) have us still in a long term bull market on a macro level.
Indicators: MACD, RSI, Stoch RSI, lost momentum, all trending down, far from oversold with a lot room for more downside. , with the MACD getting into a more neutral position.
Volume: Trending down.
Bullish:
On the weekly, its hard to see anything Bullish tbh. The only bullish thing i can see is short term, with a close above the 50 MA. Or, the Sym. triangle being invalidated by some mid term sideways action or breaking upwards due to some short covering that might start another rally.... However, comparing shorts vs longs, its quite balanced so, its very unlikely to happen. ( nice wishful thinking though..)
that was it for now.. Happy trading.
Hi guys, i have been away for a while. Sorry about that, Its just bc find it very difficult to trade and post analysis at the same time ( yes !, im also lazy ). The thing is, the market reality changed so much and i need constantly to be in concentration on my trading, i decided to just trade more on the swings more frequently and less position trading for the longer term, knowing by now this market became a traders market instead of a Hodler one.
There is a few things i want to disclaim. I decided to sell 80% of my crypto on the last run up to 10K. I just did not had the confidence we would be breaking those levels, by technical reasons ( deathcrosses) and by the fundamental reasons of Crypto being overhyped, and overvalued( IMO). The uncertainties are big , to start with the ICO regulation coming anytime, high valued pipeline dreams, over-leveraged markets, illiquid sh**coins on insolvent exchanges, Tether and Bitfinex uncertainties, just to name a few. All of this leaves me to think that this market is over saturated for now, and even with the MSM attention, like the CNBC fast Money shills and events like consensus and other conferences, besides the amount of institutional interest , the price of BTC showed weakness all along.
-All in all , i do hope im wrong, bc i hate to short BTC, but to make a living i need to look objectively an realistically to what the charts are telling me, and work with that.
I will go some quick analysis on the weekly, keeping it as simple as possible.
Recap:
Bearish :
Price broke for the 3rd time the .618 Fib level of the last Bullrun and atm we are inside a Symm. triangle ( some are drawing desc. triangles- but im considering the wicks, and not only the bodies of the candles) although in a Symm. triangle is usually a no trade zone on higher timeframes, knowing they can break in either direction, This pattern tends most of the time to be a continuation pattern. On the other hand, the 50 weekly MA is still support and might give us the necessary for a bounce inside the triangle. especially if price manages close next Sunday the weekly candle above the 50 MA, than i expect some bullish activity to at least 8000. to add to that, Based on of my fav. indicator , the TD seq, BTC gave a nice short entry the moment it broke the 7 period MA and the red 2 started trading below the red 1.
- On a eventual breakdown , the Bearish Target to be met is at the long term channel top trend line. Its yet to be seen if another bearish continuation pattern might occur to re-evaluate the continuation of the bear trend. but those green boxes can give you an idea of where price will most likely reverse or bounce( the 128, 200 MA are also great references) if the previous level do not hold. The worst case scenario will be prob. a retest at the last ATH at 1.3 K. which would in theorie ( f it doesn't break) have us still in a long term bull market on a macro level.
Indicators: MACD, RSI, Stoch RSI, lost momentum, all trending down, far from oversold with a lot room for more downside. , with the MACD getting into a more neutral position.
Volume: Trending down.
Bullish:
On the weekly, its hard to see anything Bullish tbh. The only bullish thing i can see is short term, with a close above the 50 MA. Or, the Sym. triangle being invalidated by some mid term sideways action or breaking upwards due to some short covering that might start another rally.... However, comparing shorts vs longs, its quite balanced so, its very unlikely to happen. ( nice wishful thinking though..)
that was it for now.. Happy trading.