Andy_N

BTC/USD time to make up your mind

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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This is my first publishing, so hello readers :)

As far as I see BTC is trading in a narrow channel the last few days and running up to the resistance trendline set at the December high.
Price action seems to react to the D25 EMA , but during the last 5 days, price action was really close, not ready to give an inch either way, same with the volume .
Bulls and bears both seem to be holding their respective grounds at this level, neither one giving in.

As far as candlesticks go, last few peaks gave clear signals, a nice shooting star at the first peak, followed by a "nice" hanging man at the next peak and 3 black crows .

About the hammer following the 3 black crows , these are trend reversal signals, they happen at the end of a (short term) trend, a small move up happened but generally we were moving down.
Just quick reminder that you need to look for trend reversal signals at bottoms/top and bottoms/top cannot be called until after they have formed.

about what's happening now, a spinning top , followed by a hanging man/hammer a day in between and now indecisive, this is what I think:

Volume: kicked up a notch, not decisive on any other way, but in an accumulation zone, which is good for break out
RSI: bouncing of the low end, are we going to see prices go to the low before bounce up, future-teller will tell
EMA: price is moving along EMA , not breaking EMA , instead it's bouncing of EMA to the low

Conclusion:

Am I bullish about BTC , yes, just not now...

Volume is signalling that there is buying pressure, the bulls are not allowing the price to drop much further, yet it is not enough to break the trend and the trend is your friend.
So taking my fortune teller cloack out of the closet, since the trend is down and not breaking anything, a drop to the 7k area wouldn't surprise me.
Given the notch up in volume , a spike afterwards is to be expected.
Though I am bullish about BTC a sideways move till July/August wouldn't surprise me.

If drop to 7k occurs, with a bounce on volume , I personally will go long till top of channel is reached, position is then to be reconsidered.
That said, at the moment I do nothing, it go either way and I throw darts more accurately, take position when the move is confermend.

Everything I say is to be considered as a talk trough of what I do. I take no responsibilities about any other trades, that is your trade...
What I do is what I do, this is for discussion of ideas only, I will never give any trading advice, nor will I be held accountable for any losses.

That said, happy hunting,

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