I will admit that my idea is speculative at this point, but hear me out.
While studying BTC charts across different time frame, I came to the realisation that there is a real possibility that we may be heading towards a longer term bear marker for BTC.
There are a few factors to consider when making our assessment.
1. The 50 week MA is currently climbing and will continue to climb for the next 16 to 20 weeks unless we see a huge sell off of BTC towards the $11k price in a very short timeframe. This is obviously unlikely to happen. Therefore, we accept the fact that the 50W MA will continue to inch higher for a few months
2. Based on the current trends. 50W MA is likely to be around the 35k price level in about 1 to 2 weeks from now.
3. Even though we hit a recent high of $42,700 in recent weeks, it will be premature to call it a bullish reversal as the price level is squarely within the 382 retracement level from ATH to swing low of 29K.
4. Given that the $42700 level was rejected. The possibility of retracing back to the 29K price level remains open.
5. If BTC price is to fall below 35k in the next 14 days, it would be the first time BTC trades under the 50W MA since May 2018. During that time, it signalled a longer term bear market which lasted a full year.
In the short term, given that we are likely to test the 35k price level pretty soon, that makes it the most pivotal moment for BTC price trend. If BTC is to fail this support level, there is a very strong possibility that the price then gets trapped under the 50W MA with the 35K price forming a formidable resistance level.
Given that buying volume has shown sustained weakness for months, failing the 35K support level is a real possibility.
On the other hand, if the 35k support level is passed, the next step will be to re challenge the 42K resistance level, hopefully with volume returning to break the resistance in a convincing manner.
Need to watch the market closely for the next 2 weeks.
While studying BTC charts across different time frame, I came to the realisation that there is a real possibility that we may be heading towards a longer term bear marker for BTC.
There are a few factors to consider when making our assessment.
1. The 50 week MA is currently climbing and will continue to climb for the next 16 to 20 weeks unless we see a huge sell off of BTC towards the $11k price in a very short timeframe. This is obviously unlikely to happen. Therefore, we accept the fact that the 50W MA will continue to inch higher for a few months
2. Based on the current trends. 50W MA is likely to be around the 35k price level in about 1 to 2 weeks from now.
3. Even though we hit a recent high of $42,700 in recent weeks, it will be premature to call it a bullish reversal as the price level is squarely within the 382 retracement level from ATH to swing low of 29K.
4. Given that the $42700 level was rejected. The possibility of retracing back to the 29K price level remains open.
5. If BTC price is to fall below 35k in the next 14 days, it would be the first time BTC trades under the 50W MA since May 2018. During that time, it signalled a longer term bear market which lasted a full year.
In the short term, given that we are likely to test the 35k price level pretty soon, that makes it the most pivotal moment for BTC price trend. If BTC is to fail this support level, there is a very strong possibility that the price then gets trapped under the 50W MA with the 35K price forming a formidable resistance level.
Given that buying volume has shown sustained weakness for months, failing the 35K support level is a real possibility.
On the other hand, if the 35k support level is passed, the next step will be to re challenge the 42K resistance level, hopefully with volume returning to break the resistance in a convincing manner.
Need to watch the market closely for the next 2 weeks.