Just wanted to share this updated version of my previous idea "Bitcoin - Still in the sandbox" which you can find in my profile (can't link it because I am not a PRO member...)
I added fibonacci levels to locate some keys levels in the chart apart from the 30k support which I think will hold for sure. Also, I'm posting this on Aug 31 because I do expect a negative month of September and because I am mainly posting these for self reference. I would be happy if this idea is helpful to someone else, but it is not financial advice and I would urge you to do your own research.
So to sum up:
I think BTC is going down in September. Too many signs for this. You can see how this recent pump is showing very similar bearish divergence compared to the last one from Q1/Q2. Massive resistance from log growth curves and trendline (which I slightly adjusted compared to the last idea). Also September is historically the worst month for crypto. As for price targets, I want to see 30k so that I can accumulate there, would be happy at 37k fib level as well and I think it is the more likely bottom this time. Bull market support band and fib level at 42k is a big area of confluence and potentially a good buy zone but once we get there I would like to see if we hold it as support for some time before going in heavily. I expect BTC to spend more time in the triangle pattern before testing ATH early next year. Hence I am inclined to believe that 42k support will not hold and we will test and hold the bull market support band in the 30k's region.
If somehow BTC breaks 51k from here without going down, I'd still be happy because my bags are loaded. However, I'd be happier to see a healthy market that takes its time before going parabolic again.
Thanks.
I added fibonacci levels to locate some keys levels in the chart apart from the 30k support which I think will hold for sure. Also, I'm posting this on Aug 31 because I do expect a negative month of September and because I am mainly posting these for self reference. I would be happy if this idea is helpful to someone else, but it is not financial advice and I would urge you to do your own research.
So to sum up:
I think BTC is going down in September. Too many signs for this. You can see how this recent pump is showing very similar bearish divergence compared to the last one from Q1/Q2. Massive resistance from log growth curves and trendline (which I slightly adjusted compared to the last idea). Also September is historically the worst month for crypto. As for price targets, I want to see 30k so that I can accumulate there, would be happy at 37k fib level as well and I think it is the more likely bottom this time. Bull market support band and fib level at 42k is a big area of confluence and potentially a good buy zone but once we get there I would like to see if we hold it as support for some time before going in heavily. I expect BTC to spend more time in the triangle pattern before testing ATH early next year. Hence I am inclined to believe that 42k support will not hold and we will test and hold the bull market support band in the 30k's region.
If somehow BTC breaks 51k from here without going down, I'd still be happy because my bags are loaded. However, I'd be happier to see a healthy market that takes its time before going parabolic again.
Thanks.
Comment:
And here we are. New ATH on Oct 20. BTC beat my expecatations as it often does. Congrats to anyone who held through summer. Onwards and upwards! dyor
I posted this on Aug 31 when BTC was at 48k or so, and even went on to hit 52.7K before dropping about 20% to a low of 39.5K. Didn't hit my PT of 37k, but I am still pretty happy I could accummulate at 40k levels.
I really hope someone read this and found value. Now let's see if we test ATH early 2022. Since BTC just broke out of a falling wedge, which also serves as a bull flag to the August r rally, I wouldn't be surpised to see a new ATH in 2021. I'll be happy whether right or wrong though.
Take care, manage risk and DYOR. Will update this once at ATH.