BTCUSD medium-term downtrend and coiling?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
BTCUSD seems to be following a downtrend begun on the 17th December. Barring the effects of any forthcoming market news events, the apparent coiling associated with that downtend could continue, breaking sometime before the 14th February.

The current cycle may have already bottomed at $13200, but if not it will probably bounce up off the $12600 support. In either case its rise will likely meet resistance at $14700 sometime on the 16th January, then either breakthrough and get up to $16000 a couple of days later, or bounce back down. Either way, if it cannot break above $16000 by the 18th then I think that is a futher sign that BTCUSD is coiling for something.

The immenent concern to watch for in the next couple of days is that the price falls through the $12600 support, there appears to be no other support to catch it, and only the gravity of the current centre trend line to pull it back up.
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