BTCUSD short to 2400 - when is bull on the daily MACD crossover?
While we are waiting for the big bull setup to come true, last days a bearish butterfly(?) or something like that harmonic shape has formed. Long story short, when doing Fibonacci retracements of last ups and downs the current XABCD shape snaps on perfectly to the .382, .786 and .618 levels of past retracements which overlaps with past structure to the left of highs and lows.
This is Hourly chart - next couple days trade setup here.
All flags are bearish, in prepping for the perfect bull in some days when the daily MACD and RSI is negative and MACD hopefully crosses over.
The current price action will take its usual Elliott ups and downs zig-zagging down to the shorter structural supports/resistances typically with legs of about $50. I'm just not going to play in that game.
The short target for me is the .618 of the last bull impulse leg up of the harmonic shape. Let's see - EMA and Ichimoku clouds will be your helper here if there is a break out, if we push back up through a red cloud / up on top of EMAs that's a profit taking signal as well.
Right now its a short and the potentials profit targets based on the retracements of the last up leg are:
2490 @ .382
2450 @ .5
2400 @ .618 TARGET
2350 @ .786
The .618 @ 2400 is just what historically has been the pain point/re-entry of investors. Remember its summer vacation, folks are closing out their positions to go on holidays, ICOs have been a bit too hot with flash crashes as a result, GDAX and Kraken are being sued etc. etc. - regardless of various good news, investors / humans are loss averse above all so there.
When looking at the daily chart and doing a retracement from about 3000 to about 2000 you'll see 2520 or so pop up as a .5 retracement, so there's some psychology price action going on there but I won't be fooled by that ;-) ... Interestingly this main retracement has a .618 at 2405 so that's a double up ;-)
If we look at the daily chart we were just about to have a MACD cross over and go bullish, but now we got a pullback and its not going to happen for some days. When...?! I really think its going to be from when this bearish harmonic shape has played out and the long will go to at least 2770 once that happens based on past retracements and major resistance.
Remember - trading is a probabilistic game, trade responsibly, put in your stops and good luck :-)
BTCUSD
This is Hourly chart - next couple days trade setup here.
All flags are bearish, in prepping for the perfect bull in some days when the daily MACD and RSI is negative and MACD hopefully crosses over.
The current price action will take its usual Elliott ups and downs zig-zagging down to the shorter structural supports/resistances typically with legs of about $50. I'm just not going to play in that game.
The short target for me is the .618 of the last bull impulse leg up of the harmonic shape. Let's see - EMA and Ichimoku clouds will be your helper here if there is a break out, if we push back up through a red cloud / up on top of EMAs that's a profit taking signal as well.
Right now its a short and the potentials profit targets based on the retracements of the last up leg are:
2490 @ .382
2450 @ .5
2400 @ .618 TARGET
2350 @ .786
The .618 @ 2400 is just what historically has been the pain point/re-entry of investors. Remember its summer vacation, folks are closing out their positions to go on holidays, ICOs have been a bit too hot with flash crashes as a result, GDAX and Kraken are being sued etc. etc. - regardless of various good news, investors / humans are loss averse above all so there.
When looking at the daily chart and doing a retracement from about 3000 to about 2000 you'll see 2520 or so pop up as a .5 retracement, so there's some psychology price action going on there but I won't be fooled by that ;-) ... Interestingly this main retracement has a .618 at 2405 so that's a double up ;-)
If we look at the daily chart we were just about to have a MACD cross over and go bullish, but now we got a pullback and its not going to happen for some days. When...?! I really think its going to be from when this bearish harmonic shape has played out and the long will go to at least 2770 once that happens based on past retracements and major resistance.
Remember - trading is a probabilistic game, trade responsibly, put in your stops and good luck :-)
BTCUSD
Comment:
...and on MACD / RSI: even though we are super oversold, just check what happened last we crossed through EMA on the 1hr chart:
...yeah, so there's that.
...yeah, so there's that.
Comment:
That means first stop is something like 2480-90, bounce up to 2530 and then back down to 2400 IMHO
Comment:
Yeah - catch the train down from 2530 in my opinion unless you wanna do really high risk 2510 - 2480 but thats just too risky for me. And I might not do any of this and just wait until 2400 and go long
Comment:
Wauw - just double checked how this all fits with the triangle we broke out of a week or so ago. The trending support snaps on perfect with 2400 in the near future.
Comment:
Ups - the last up leg retracement wasn't precise enough. The right bounce and levels are:
.618 at 2420. Bounce at 2540.
Comment:
So:
Down to 2495
Up to 2540
Down to 2420, possibly with a stop at .5 retracement
Down to 2495
Up to 2540
Down to 2420, possibly with a stop at .5 retracement
Comment:
Something along these lines:
That said, with the multiple tests of 2600 lately and bearish flags all over - ahhh... lets go down and test .618 retracement at 2400 shall we. Then bull bounce up to 3000 and beyond please ;-)