With Bitcoin's continued rally, and failure to flush out bullish sentiment during its August detour, we are left with the potential for a very bearish pattern to near completion. The yellow box shows the region for an 'ideal' retracement area, with my preference being for the log scale fib 1.0 extension which equals the presumed a wave of the first half of 2019. However do note that in terms of linear scale for those fib extensions, we are just $200 away from the 1.0 linear fib extension and that is just $60 below the 0.886 log scale level. Like Technical Analysis, Elliott Wave is not a science. So while I prefer to use log scale Fibonacci measures, seeing how the linear scale might also line up is worth noting, especially if it shows confluence like that here with the 0.886 log and 1.0 linear closeness.
Regardless, we are nearing a very key target region (yellow box) for completion of this bearish pattern. Notice also how overbought the weekly RSI is while the MACD remains quite muted. If BTC reaches this target region and then begins to turn down, simply be aware of this pattern! It doesn't mean panic sell, it means monitor the price closely and determine where you want to set your stoploss levels so that you don't wake up to BTC having dumped a few thousand overnight.
The alternative in purple is that the March lows were the final completion of the longer-term correction with a (very) truncated C wave and BTC is in some sort of ugly impulse upwards. The structure of the move off the March lows does not lend credence to this perspective, and therefore it remains the unlikely alternative view. If however a move downwards off the current highs were to be corrective and hits the 0.382 / 0.5 retracement levels while then making a strong move up off those levels, the purple alternative would need to be taken much more seriously.
Significantly exceeding the 17505 level (+500 or so and holding above it) reduces the probability of this scenario playing out significantly. It however does not remove the potential from play, as B waves can extend beyond even a 1.0 retracement...
If BTC had made decent retracements during this rally off the March lows, this scenario would also have been reduced in probability. Unfortunately BTC has chosen to move in a much more direct fashion which is typical of c waves.
Another thing worth noting is that sentiment is getting into greed levels again: alternative.me/crypt...ear-and-greed-index/
Do not get caught unaware here.
Risk management is highly personal, but for me I would sell a small amount of my position here already, more at the 17500 level assuming it gets there, and then moving my stoploss up to a price level I am comfortable with.
Understand your own personal situation, and why you (want) to own Bitcoin. If it's for calamity insurance, I don't know why you're on a trading site. Insurance isn't something you trade unless you're a banker. I personally think Bitcoin over the longer-term (5+ years) has much, much, much higher to go. But I don't think that's the case for the immediate future. Ultimately what I think doesn't matter though, only price action matters.
Regardless, we are nearing a very key target region (yellow box) for completion of this bearish pattern. Notice also how overbought the weekly RSI is while the MACD remains quite muted. If BTC reaches this target region and then begins to turn down, simply be aware of this pattern! It doesn't mean panic sell, it means monitor the price closely and determine where you want to set your stoploss levels so that you don't wake up to BTC having dumped a few thousand overnight.
The alternative in purple is that the March lows were the final completion of the longer-term correction with a (very) truncated C wave and BTC is in some sort of ugly impulse upwards. The structure of the move off the March lows does not lend credence to this perspective, and therefore it remains the unlikely alternative view. If however a move downwards off the current highs were to be corrective and hits the 0.382 / 0.5 retracement levels while then making a strong move up off those levels, the purple alternative would need to be taken much more seriously.
Significantly exceeding the 17505 level (+500 or so and holding above it) reduces the probability of this scenario playing out significantly. It however does not remove the potential from play, as B waves can extend beyond even a 1.0 retracement...
If BTC had made decent retracements during this rally off the March lows, this scenario would also have been reduced in probability. Unfortunately BTC has chosen to move in a much more direct fashion which is typical of c waves.
Another thing worth noting is that sentiment is getting into greed levels again: alternative.me/crypt...ear-and-greed-index/
Do not get caught unaware here.
Risk management is highly personal, but for me I would sell a small amount of my position here already, more at the 17500 level assuming it gets there, and then moving my stoploss up to a price level I am comfortable with.
Understand your own personal situation, and why you (want) to own Bitcoin. If it's for calamity insurance, I don't know why you're on a trading site. Insurance isn't something you trade unless you're a banker. I personally think Bitcoin over the longer-term (5+ years) has much, much, much higher to go. But I don't think that's the case for the immediate future. Ultimately what I think doesn't matter though, only price action matters.