stanosky

I was wrong...

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
...Bitcoin cannot fall all the time. Even a mountain climber coming down from a peak sometimes has to climb a smaller mountain to find a safe way down. I think that's what's happening on the chart right now. We are going up because the bulls have smelled the green candles in the air and are following them like crazy.

However, I don't think this is the end of the declines. Looking at the highs and lows of previous cycles, we are still a couple of months before the likely date of final capitulation. Moreover, looking at the chart I noticed an interesting thing. The formation of a bearish flag on the weekly chart has most likely begun. Yes, the previous flag was just a prelude to a larger structure. From the beginning it looked somehow strange to me. The price did not move inside in a textbook fashion.

As you can see on the chart, the price of bitcoin is moving in a blue downtrend channel and has only bounced off its middle line. This to me suggests that we will see another leg up, all the way to the area of $25-27k (purple rectangle) where further increases should be stopped by strong resistance. In turn, this will trigger the start of a final decline, which I believe will end somewhere between December and January.

This is not financial advice.
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