Comparing some data from BTC's first 2 halvings seems to show a remarkable repeating pattern. Will it hold again?
1st halving: November 2012, around $40 at the time of the halving.
2nd halving: July 2016, around $600 at the time of the halving.
3rd halving: May 2020, around $9,000 at the time of the halving (where we are now).
Notice the spacing of time...
From 1st halving to 2nd halving = 3 years, 8 months
From 2nd halving to 3rd halving = 3 years, 10 months
We might thus project the 4th halving to be, say, 3 years and 9 months after the 3rd, or around February 2024.
Notice the multiple of the price...
From 1st halving to 2nd halving = $40 to $600 = 15x
From 2nd halving to 3rd halving = $600 to $9,000 = 15x
We might thus project the price at the 4th halving to be 15x higher than the 3rd = $9,000 x 15 = $135,000 by February 2024.
Of course, the price spiked much higher after the first two halvings.
1st halving, price spiked from $40 to $1,100 = 27.5 times higher
2nd halving, price spiked from $600 to $20,000 = 33.33 times higher
We might thus project the spike after the 3rd halving to be around 30 times higher than its 3rd halving price = $9,000 x 30 = $270,000.
When the next spike?
1st halving to 1st spike = 13 months
2nd halving to 2nd spike = 17 months
We might thus project the next spike after the upcoming 3rd halving to be around 15 months later, perhaps August 2021.
However, seeing as both prior spikes occurred in the month of December, the 3rd spike to $270,000 may happen as late as December 2021.
1st halving: November 2012, around $40 at the time of the halving.
2nd halving: July 2016, around $600 at the time of the halving.
3rd halving: May 2020, around $9,000 at the time of the halving (where we are now).
Notice the spacing of time...
From 1st halving to 2nd halving = 3 years, 8 months
From 2nd halving to 3rd halving = 3 years, 10 months
We might thus project the 4th halving to be, say, 3 years and 9 months after the 3rd, or around February 2024.
Notice the multiple of the price...
From 1st halving to 2nd halving = $40 to $600 = 15x
From 2nd halving to 3rd halving = $600 to $9,000 = 15x
We might thus project the price at the 4th halving to be 15x higher than the 3rd = $9,000 x 15 = $135,000 by February 2024.
Of course, the price spiked much higher after the first two halvings.
1st halving, price spiked from $40 to $1,100 = 27.5 times higher
2nd halving, price spiked from $600 to $20,000 = 33.33 times higher
We might thus project the spike after the 3rd halving to be around 30 times higher than its 3rd halving price = $9,000 x 30 = $270,000.
When the next spike?
1st halving to 1st spike = 13 months
2nd halving to 2nd spike = 17 months
We might thus project the next spike after the upcoming 3rd halving to be around 15 months later, perhaps August 2021.
However, seeing as both prior spikes occurred in the month of December, the 3rd spike to $270,000 may happen as late as December 2021.