Bitcoin has now repeatedly breached all-time-high resistance and now is holding above.
In the first instance this triggered a big sell off which got many bears hopefully dreaming up an instant crash scenario.
But the sell off was caught by a fast recovery with buyers eating up the area.
The retracement of the bounce recovery exceeded the 0.786 ratio; signalling that a full recovery was underway.
Notice that the dump was a SRP Shakeout Reversal Pattern through the long term median line.
Computers never forget these landmarks and they are all "pockets" of higher liquidity that the market movers are attracted to dip into, trigger many limit entry & exit orders, only to then swing price back the other way to shakeout those traders or leave them underwater.
Worth noting that this trendline is much more significant than others since it dates back to 2015 and taking the pivot lows of the previous two cycles.
Since it is of such significance, it will likely be the key liquidity landmark in a mid cycle top.
Bitcoin is already above the long term median line and so this area above is the area of high liquidity.
If it falls from this area then the liquidity tapping shakeout will be complete.
After hitting a major liquidity landmark, we may see a major correction.
Its not entirely clear at this point but I would suggest that from wherever it tops, a 50% crash is not outside odds.
It is on the table.
But it could also be a more shallow pull back; we will see...
Looking at the chart again; after the second ATH breach there was much less sell action and this signalled that the higher liquidity above ATH had been significantly depleted.
The following recovery was rapid as before.
...
These two sell offs have printed a running 3 wave correction.
This is typically a bullish correction.
It is bullish because the third wave is weaker than the first; signalling that the bearish impetus is waning.
Notice that only the first dump temporarily moved the trend away from the upward trajectory.
And actually these dumps look like they have hardly disrupted the trend at all, which continues to push higher.
They were momentary blips that did not really affect the uptrend.
And now, today Bitcoin has pushed up above ATH resistance but on this occasion there is no selling reaction at all!
...
So this all looks very bullish and Bitcoin looks set to make another wave up.
If that happens, the news will go wild and the FOMO will be incredible.
But you know how the story goes right?
As the dumbest money steps in, that is when we are getting close to a rug pull.
But it doesn't happen immedietly...
Rather, there is an amount of time that passes to allow dumb money to get comfortable, enjoy making profit and start taking wild risks, telling their friends and family to buy, buying with margin etc.
And that is generally when the hammer falls.
In crypto, the bullish end of the trend is where the most profit is available before it all goes over a cliff as altcoins reach dizzying highs before collapsing back down.
...
Remember also that Bitcoin ETF buyers have had a very easy ride so far and many of them will have been buying more as the trend moved up; getting greedy and making themselves vulnerable to bearish action.
Generally the markets and especially Bitcoin do not facilitate easy rides and this could well be a trap.
So market movers may have set the trap to also smash ETF buyers and their buttocks may be tested down the road.
The low of the various ETFs will be around Bitcoin $38K and so there is high liquidity below that point.
There are many ETF and Bitcoin buyers that will capitulate below that low.
So I am not saying that it certainly will get back there.
There are many permutations and possibilities.
But it is an attractive landmark for market movers to shakeout many traders.
And one that I will be aware of moving forward.
...
My eventual target for Bitcoin is still a minimum of $174 by the end of the cycle
But we may see a rug pull at some point in the not too distant future.
I am not releasing my topping targets to free websites such as TradingView at this point.
But I will say that I think that the most probable outcome is that a prolonged bearish phase is in the pipeline.
And newly arriving traders will get smashed.
But before that I think we will see some more pump action.
It could get extremely wild 🚀.
Not advice
In the first instance this triggered a big sell off which got many bears hopefully dreaming up an instant crash scenario.
But the sell off was caught by a fast recovery with buyers eating up the area.
The retracement of the bounce recovery exceeded the 0.786 ratio; signalling that a full recovery was underway.
Notice that the dump was a SRP Shakeout Reversal Pattern through the long term median line.
Computers never forget these landmarks and they are all "pockets" of higher liquidity that the market movers are attracted to dip into, trigger many limit entry & exit orders, only to then swing price back the other way to shakeout those traders or leave them underwater.
Worth noting that this trendline is much more significant than others since it dates back to 2015 and taking the pivot lows of the previous two cycles.
Since it is of such significance, it will likely be the key liquidity landmark in a mid cycle top.
Bitcoin is already above the long term median line and so this area above is the area of high liquidity.
If it falls from this area then the liquidity tapping shakeout will be complete.
After hitting a major liquidity landmark, we may see a major correction.
Its not entirely clear at this point but I would suggest that from wherever it tops, a 50% crash is not outside odds.
It is on the table.
But it could also be a more shallow pull back; we will see...
Looking at the chart again; after the second ATH breach there was much less sell action and this signalled that the higher liquidity above ATH had been significantly depleted.
The following recovery was rapid as before.
...
These two sell offs have printed a running 3 wave correction.
This is typically a bullish correction.
It is bullish because the third wave is weaker than the first; signalling that the bearish impetus is waning.
Notice that only the first dump temporarily moved the trend away from the upward trajectory.
And actually these dumps look like they have hardly disrupted the trend at all, which continues to push higher.
They were momentary blips that did not really affect the uptrend.
And now, today Bitcoin has pushed up above ATH resistance but on this occasion there is no selling reaction at all!
...
So this all looks very bullish and Bitcoin looks set to make another wave up.
If that happens, the news will go wild and the FOMO will be incredible.
But you know how the story goes right?
As the dumbest money steps in, that is when we are getting close to a rug pull.
But it doesn't happen immedietly...
Rather, there is an amount of time that passes to allow dumb money to get comfortable, enjoy making profit and start taking wild risks, telling their friends and family to buy, buying with margin etc.
And that is generally when the hammer falls.
In crypto, the bullish end of the trend is where the most profit is available before it all goes over a cliff as altcoins reach dizzying highs before collapsing back down.
...
Remember also that Bitcoin ETF buyers have had a very easy ride so far and many of them will have been buying more as the trend moved up; getting greedy and making themselves vulnerable to bearish action.
Generally the markets and especially Bitcoin do not facilitate easy rides and this could well be a trap.
So market movers may have set the trap to also smash ETF buyers and their buttocks may be tested down the road.
The low of the various ETFs will be around Bitcoin $38K and so there is high liquidity below that point.
There are many ETF and Bitcoin buyers that will capitulate below that low.
So I am not saying that it certainly will get back there.
There are many permutations and possibilities.
But it is an attractive landmark for market movers to shakeout many traders.
And one that I will be aware of moving forward.
...
My eventual target for Bitcoin is still a minimum of $174 by the end of the cycle
But we may see a rug pull at some point in the not too distant future.
I am not releasing my topping targets to free websites such as TradingView at this point.
But I will say that I think that the most probable outcome is that a prolonged bearish phase is in the pipeline.
And newly arriving traders will get smashed.
But before that I think we will see some more pump action.
It could get extremely wild 🚀.
Not advice
Comment:
Comment:
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Comments good or bad also welcome.
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Comment:
BTC
Reading ascending channels can be confusing because it can be a sign of weakness to the upside before the dominant trend takes over to the downside.
The textbook will tell you that they are typically bearish.
But here my read on this is the opposite.
And rather than it being weak, it is a corrective wave that is so bullish that it is drifting up rather than sideways or the textbook descending channel.
I think it is a complex running correction.
Similar to an Elliott Wave "Running Flat" but with complexity and layering.
I think this is leading to a wild pump.
Let' see 🧐.
Reading ascending channels can be confusing because it can be a sign of weakness to the upside before the dominant trend takes over to the downside.
The textbook will tell you that they are typically bearish.
But here my read on this is the opposite.
And rather than it being weak, it is a corrective wave that is so bullish that it is drifting up rather than sideways or the textbook descending channel.
I think it is a complex running correction.
Similar to an Elliott Wave "Running Flat" but with complexity and layering.
I think this is leading to a wild pump.
Let' see 🧐.
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Priority trades, round the clock updates and a 1 hour technical video per week 😼.
Get the "heads up" at critical moments - don't lose your shirt.
$50 per month 👍🏻.
Contact: t.me/dRends35
