Why I'm not bullish, yet | BTC analysis

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Good afternoon TradingView,
Been a while since I did a BTC analysis for y'all so here I am!

Things discussed in this analysis:
BTC 30m/1h/4h/1d
50/100 MA daily
BTC 1d bb bands
BTC Shorts lost some strength\u2028BTC Longs weak\u2028Coinbase s/r flip 4h
BTC fractal daily Coinbase

BTC weekly volume (50/100/200)
BTC weekly BB bands
Bars pattern Weekly for bottom/bull-run

Just remember that when you feel like fomo'ing or feel extra bullish do two things:
1. Look at chart on higher time frames
2. Zoom out + look to left of chart to show you where next support/resistance levels are


Let volume and price show you strength before you jump in. BTC has a strong resistance at $6575 on finex and $6500 on Coinbase. Massive resistance at $6800 across most exchanges. Don't be liquidity for whales pumping up the price and selling into retailer buy orders.
When in doubt zoom out and pick higher time frames. You will see that the current move is insignificant. Let volume, PA, and resistances give way for better, more confirmed buying opportunities. This is how you will be a good trader and investor.
On Monthly chart- we must not close below prev. monthly candle ($6303, Bitstamp price). This could signify more bearish momentum for coming months. An indecision or green candle by the end of this month could give way to some bullish momentum as relief to bears but remember that it must cross at least one significant resistance level $6800 or $7400.
ETH/USD showing signs of rejection by the 50MA + $216 (yellow line) horizontal s/r level
Keep an eye on how BTC reacts to that sideways small rectangular box underneath PA. If it moves up strongly and pushes out of descending parallel channel then you know that bulls are willing to defend their positions. If it falls through then you know bears are still in control.
30m chart shows lower highs but let's see if we can create a symmetrical triangle with the higher lows after this previous low
You can see why price is struggling to get through this current level. It's been a long held battle ground between bulls and bears for almost 10+ days. If we break above it cleanly then we can take a chance at $6800. If not, I'd expect a rejection from current red zone toward blue demand zone.
Moment of truth for fractal repetition
Smaller time frames (30m/1h) we're getting rejected by $6466 resistance
Bigger time frames (4h/12h) we're flagging here - somewhat bullish here
More neutral than bearish/bullish here. The odds are on your side for bullish momentum in the shorter terms as long as the PA stays above this red block
Just remember that if price reaches that 50% fib of this OB (~$6700) and gets rejected, this is a sell signal as price could easily go back to $6100-6200 or lower.
BTC analysis showing us we're in an ascending channel here on the 2h chart and flagging. Keep in mind of my analysis above regarding order block resistance of $6700
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Nice analysis bro
Cryptosomniac LukeSkywalker
@LukeSkywalker, Thank you, brother! Appreciate you commenting
I just don't really agree tho with the bottoming out of the market and your historical comparison... I don't see it going much lower. but only time will tell....
+1 Reply
@nilux, I'm not adamant on my analysis. I'll also never try to force technicals onto a chart. Unless I see $7400 then $7900 broken, this range is slightly more bearish than bullish.
nice one!
ok, master of many circumscribing words, when is the right time to buy bitcoins?
@ReallyMe, I'd wait for a break above $7900 or below $5500. I've explained this in my OB (order block analysis) few weeks back.
+1 Reply
ReallyMe Cryptosomniac
@Cryptosomniac, fair enough. although personally I'd probably buy above $7200 and would not buy at all, but rather wait on the sidelines below $5900
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