BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: No Signs Of Selling. Yet.

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
BTCUSD Update: 7530 all time high is reached as this relentless rally continues. The question is what is how much higher can it go?

One extension is taken out after another. The next price target based on an extension projected from the bottom of the most recent bullish structure is 8271 (the 2.618 extension). Yes it is hard to believe price can make it that high, but this market does not care what we believe.

At the moment, there is not much on the chart that shows any signs of immediate weakness. Pull backs are shallow and no where near any major support levels. This is why I have been saying in order to trade this market and keep your risk low, it is important to stay focused on the smaller time frames where you can make adjustments quickly. There are opportunities both long and short if you have the plan and the agility.

As far as shorts go, this market reminds me of the Dow futures back in 2007. At the time, the market was relentlessly strong and I felt that the strength was simply unjustified. So I was shorting it and getting hammered over and over. It was pushing 14k which were all time highs. Eventually the market sold off, that was some time in 2008. I was a little early.

The lesson that I learned besides not to short a market pushing new highs is this: If you are going to short the bigger picture, at least wait for some form of structure like a double top on a large time frame like a 4 hour or above.This may require a ton of patience, but even if you are wrong, and the market still goes higher, your chances of a profitable outcome are much better.

Shorting a market on new highs because you feel "how much higher can it go?" is a bad reason to be short. If you want to see a great example of a market that offered structure for bigger picture shorting? Look no further than the EURUSD on a 4 hour or larger time frame. Head and shoulders after head and shoulders . That is what a bigger picture short looks like.

Now if you are day trading than you can get away shorting as long a you are taking your profits quickly. A shallow retrace for this market is 300 points, which offers plenty of opportunity for this type of strategy.

As far as my plan for this market (since I am looking for longs only), I would like to see IF price can retrace back to 6567 which is now the .382 of the recent bullish swing. While a break of that level can take prices to the 5798 area which is the .382 of the broad bullish structure. IF the market retraces to either one of these levels, that is where I will look for bullish reversals for a possible swing trade long. I do not expect a retrace of that magnitude until after the upcoming fork is out of the way. Also remember that in order f or a retrace like this to unfold, something will have to surprise the market. Just like the Chinese government nonsense over a month ago. Remember that? Yeah neither does this market.

In summary. strong markets like this are not driven by logic, and as one trader wrote in a previous comment, "Noone wants to buy the top" so it tough not to get involved one way or the other if you let your emotions get the best of you. Taking swing trades at these levels is high risk long or short (unless you don't mind taking 1k points of pain). Day trading is where the best opportunities are because you are looking for small profits (30 points is small). In terms of proportion, this market can see the 8k level, especially since there is no real selling signals to speak of. My plan as I have written before is to wait for a retrace back to one of my projected levels and look for reversal from there for a swing trade long. No need to get emotional, just a matter of waiting.

Comments and questions welcome.
Marc Principato, CMT |Author: Analyze Any Financial Market Like The Pros Using Price Action| | Cofounder (S.C.)

Great thoughts, thanks! One of this events that can return price to down may be Segwit2x.
> Remember that? Yeah neither does this market.

Haha :D
Yes I agree with your position. Too many times have I shorted this market. I'm beginning to realize that Bitcoin is still undervalued and has yet to receive the appreciation it deserves. Really the big thing to figure out now is what will crash this market to fold in price?
+1 Reply
Great analysis, both on chart and understanding of bitcoin, you sir gonna be very successful in life, that two skills together are a very rare and valuable combination. To be honest i only see here people angry about bitcoin going so high and shorting it for emotional reasons and i spend my time laughing at them. The truth.. Bitcoin is still a niche and might become a real deal. ATHs will happen more and more, corrections less and less...
Thanks again for the great commentary.
I'm totally out of this market for now watching the price unfold.

Like you said, the market doesn't care what you think or feel...and neither will I have any attachment to the market.

Let's see where this insanity goes. Haha.
@f1dust, great, that is the way to think.
Thanks for the info and your perspective. Great insight.
Marc, great analysis. Curious about your wav count. Any consideration we could still be in wave 3 and not 5? If not, why not?
@psykic0ne, I see 5 of 5. Too much to explain here.
Take the profits and run !
+2 Reply
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