week3 / march / last leg up on PHASE 1 for BITSTAMP:BTCUSD by MacroTradingE

매매일지

Comment:

possible 2 range that gives time major alt to follow up.

Comment:

yes we will eventually fill the gap, but this time i expect btc to finish leg up and full retrace back later to liquidity void and fill the gap on that retrace.
shake out early monday morning, and shoot back up next week (green week)

Comment:

also poc doesn't really effect hard on this new range since we broke ATH,
but if you looking to enter new long position, 59908 - 60200 would work.

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in bull market, real alt bull market comes when dominance below 60

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and 2nd option

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ETH

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small bidding here

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50x long taken out, 25x ? don't think so

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time for major Alts maybe ?

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still think we won't fill the CME gap, market will pushed thru derivatives, and fill the void later with spot sells.

Comment:

Btc - Buy vs Sell (Spot vs Derivs)

Price: $58,999

Spot Vol.
　Buy: $122.4M
　Sell: $138.2M

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: $768.7M
　Sell: $1B

USDT Vol.
　Buy: $35.6M
　Sell: $29.4M

(Latest 1 hours of data)

i ve bid more on this level 59200

Comment:

cme gap below , lots of untouched liquidity , fresh shorts
if co wants to push market with derivatives, they need a fuel
and it should be a good one.
so no directional bias, sure we can grab liquidity below 57k ish.
but think y are the CO that moves market, if you can push market with derivatives thru short closing = buying back (spot) , easily to upside and y can unload some spot btc on the better place, also it would make a big liquidity chunk below that can support their re accumulation or distribution. its a theory.

Comment:

viceversa - there is many demand on around cme gap that can bring bounce quick, so y can sell bit of stocks to pull the price down lower to get better bounce.

reason why i do not think this way is, there is no real supply at market on this moment, market is moving with derivatives now, then CO must close long position to sell the stocks, see the funding rates ( viewbase.com ). i don't see there is much closing on long positions.

Comment:

so when btc bounce on this range, and head to 65k or over.
we will see that moves pushed thru derivatives (volume) and ironically funding won't go too high from now ( because CO will close their position on the uprise )
ppls won't calling for high funding rate ( because its been there, and its a BULL market lol ) and we will face rough retracement to this range or dipper ( 42-57 )

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and funny that CME isn't selling, if it fills , it should be way dipper than 57.4 it could be.

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cme gap not filled, but look at spots.. its already there

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cme gap not filled, but liquidity void taken

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didn't expect it lol.
54k is next liquidity zone

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case #2

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case #3

taken out all liquidity void near by. 50k

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better we get support here, since 3day candle has strong support.

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NY open will be something cool?

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see the liquidity void

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consolidate below poc, possible one more wick down.

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in a bigger picture, btc should bounce on 52.7 with closing all the liquidity void.
if we go lower i will worry.

Comment:

Btc - Buy vs Sell (Spot vs Derivs)

Price: $54,496

Spot Vol.
　Buy: $354.6M
　Sell: $352.9M

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: $1.9B
　Sell: $1.9B

USDT Vol.
　Buy: $45.2M
　Sell: $41.8M

(Latest 1 hours of data)

volume on monthly vwap

Comment:

heavy bidding on monthly vwap

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note

it's not time to be bearish, and expecting reversal.
don't marry with your bias

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Buy vs Sell (Spot vs Derivs)

Price: $55,931

Spot Vol.
　Buy: $182.9M
　Sell: $140.6M

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: $1.1B
　Sell: $926.3M

USDT Vol.
　Buy: $29.8M
　Sell: $23.8M

(Latest 1 hours of data)

Comment:

most calling for this bearish divergence on weekly/daily/4hour

다이버전스는 그 인디케이터의 high/low 가 컨펌이 되야 하는 것입니다.
한마디로 주봉상/일봉상 rsi low 가 나오기 전까지
weekly bearish / daily bearish div 는 온전히 추측일 수 밖에 없습니다.

Comment:

if y want to sell the market, y can sure do that.
but y would do sell the market without confirmation.
confirmation will give you entry as well.

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lets see what NY brings us

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Buy vs Sell (Spot vs Derivs)

Price: $55,387

Spot Vol.
　Buy: $156.3M
　Sell: $135.1M

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: $782M
　Sell: $911M

USDT Vol.
　Buy: $27.6M
　Sell: $39.1M

(Latest 1 hours of data)

Comment:

+funding rates ...
its coming

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While it may seem small, the ripple effects of small things is extraordinary. ...

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bounced on local eq, and above poc now.. should squeeze follow soon

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so far so good, consolidation between previous weekly vwap and daily vwap.

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fresh 3day candle, previous candle close in bullish contiunation.

Comment:

Btc - Buy vs Sell (Spot vs Derivs)

Price: $56,553

Spot Vol.
　Buy: $158.3M
　Sell: $139M

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: $1.1B
　Sell: $928M

USDT Vol.
　Buy: $27.5M
　Sell: $15.9M

(Latest 1 hours of data)

Comment:

Btc - Buy vs Sell (Spot vs Derivs)

Price: $55,586

Spot Vol.
　Buy: $67.2M
　Sell: $65.4M

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: $508.8M
　Sell: $624.7M

USDT Vol.
　Buy: $14.2M
　Sell: $18.4M

(Latest 1 hours of data)

Comment:

Took full profit on Hbar

Enj , Hbar seems breaking down parabolic structure.
Major alt seems pretty good especially XRP

Comment:

ETH, XTZ, XRP , DOT , LTC in my alt bag.

Comment:

CHZ,Theta still in parabolic and no signs of weakness yet.
BAT started Parabolic, this usually goes stronger than expectation.

Comment:

Buy vs Sell (Spot vs Derivs)

Price: $56,003

Spot Vol.
　Buy: $79.4M
　Sell: $81.9M

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: $659.8M
　Sell: $662.9M

USDT Vol.
　Buy: $12.7M
　Sell: $9.8M

(Latest 1 hours of data)

note

still demand < supply in volumewise,
but price consolidated and made bounce = ?

Comment:

many short liquidity around ath, and possible path, trap more shorts ? or break through and push up higher with liquidation cascade.

Comment:

Btc - Buy vs Sell (Spot vs Derivs)

Price: $56,350

Spot Vol.
　Buy: $81M
　Sell: $82M

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: $575M
　Sell: $480.8M

USDT Vol.
　Buy: $19M
　Sell: $14.4M

(Latest 1 hours of data)

derivative apes season coming

Comment:

Btc - Buy vs Sell (Spot vs Derivs)

Price: $55,791

Spot Vol.
　Buy: $78.6M
　Sell: $78M

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: $486.2M
　Sell: $473.2M

USDT Vol.
　Buy: $20.3M
　Sell: $29.3M

(Latest 1 hours of data)

Comment:

still consolidating between previous weekly vwap and daily vwap.
if breaks down 50-51k would be good bidding

Comment:

filling inefficiency

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Btc - Buy vs Sell (Spot vs Derivs)

Price: $55,066

Spot Vol.
　Buy: $120.7M
　Sell: $104.6M

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: $721.2M
　Sell: $702.6M

USDT Vol.
　Buy: $23.2M
　Sell: $30M

(Latest 1 hours of data)

Comment:

Btc - Buy vs Sell (Spot vs Derivs)

Price: $54,841

Spot Vol.
　Buy: $97.1M
　Sell: $96.7M

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: $759.1M
　Sell: $786.8M

USDT Vol.
　Buy: $16.6M
　Sell: $14.6M

(Latest 1 hours of data)

neutral again, market need a trigger

Comment:

Btc - Buy vs Sell (Spot vs Derivs)

Price: $55,183

Spot Vol.
　Buy: $192.6M
　Sell: $184M

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: $1.5B
　Sell: $1.4B

USDT Vol.
　Buy: $17.1M
　Sell: $19.3M

(Latest 1 hours of data)

note

There is an announcement today at FOMC that everyone is concerned about,
i think the good news and the bad news that everyone knows is priced in already.
was it priced in good or bad ?
+ bond rised , stocks been sideway and pulled a bit, btc followed us100.
my bet Powell won't speak about any good or bad thing, after that it will push market up again without concerns.

Comment:

if we break this supply chain, there is no stopping zone for short term.
70k + in one week prob

Comment:

this move barely made change on rates,
more squeeze ?

Comment:

Price: $58,928

Spot Vol.
　Buy: $224.8M
　Sell: $191.5M

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: $1.4B
　Sell: $1.2B

USDT Vol.
　Buy: $19.7M
　Sell: $25.1M

(Latest 1 hours of data)

Comment:

volume on spot is most important since btc heading towards ATH.
market is mostly pushing by volume on derivatives, which could be a concern.
but yes, i will wait and see when btc breaks ATH 61k, 65k will be a good point to watch if supply pops up.

Comment:

if we hit supply on 63-65k ish, and see if there is signs of weakness.
btc prob gonna feel all the liquidity void below 39k , 44k.

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possibility like this

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again, its a one of possibilities, there is no signs of weakness yet.
and local bottom , volume expanded ( accumulated ).

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참고(교육) 자료.

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st , liquidity = 56.9 - 57.1

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57.3 = 50x long liquidation

Comment:

Btc - Buy vs Sell (Spot vs Derivs)

Price: $58,161

Spot Vol.
　Buy: $95M
　Sell: $95.4M

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: $501.3M
　Sell: $629.4M

USDT Vol.
　Buy: $16.8M
　Sell: $16.8M

(Latest 1 hours of data)

spot neutral , derivatives more sells.

Comment:

Btc - Buy vs Sell (Spot vs Derivs)

Price: $58,100

Spot Vol.
　Buy: $149M
　Sell: $145.2M

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: $871.9M
　Sell: $915.2M

USDT Vol.
　Buy: $25.9M
　Sell: $32.8M

(Latest 1 hours of data)

reversion

Comment:

some supply pop , im laddering my order on low 56

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Im bidding 30% here 56.5

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deviation happen when there is liquidity to take out.

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st , liquidity = all taken, building a position

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volume expanded on local bottom, consolidate above poc , funding neutral.
facebood ? apple ? 64k would be good target on next spike up.

my stops on b.e , enjoy the wknd

Trade closed: target reached

Comment:

Spot Vol.
　Buy: $148.9M
　Sell: $138.6M

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: $1.1B
　Sell: $1.1B

USDT Vol.
　Buy: $19.3M
　Sell: $20.2M

(Latest 1 hours of data)

Comment:

stepping on stone, enjoy the short squeeze on ny open.