I have spent a lot of time studying past price action in relation to some benchmark periods, specifically 14 day, 50 day, 14 week, and 50 week. I have them loaded up on a 4H chart with BBs and Wave-PM. Past bull runs seem to respect almost perfectly the expanding 50 week 1.25 stddev distribution (PURPLE) as the bottom level of the upward trend on a macro level. It is nicely compressed and beginning an expansion, so I am looking at that as a level to determine macro trend. Here is the chart. Currently I think if we have support at the 14 day MA(GREENISH)/50 day MA(BLUE) confluence level and subsequently a break above the 14 day and 50 day upper 1.25, then parabolic upward trend will likely continue. Alternatively, a break below that will almost certainly see support at that major 50 week 1.25 upper band level.
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