alpacaboy
Long

A little further left to go

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Looking at the 4-hour chart there could be a little further left to run up to about $9,200-$9,400 (yellow line) since we passed both the 50 and 200 EMAs.

As far as the downtrend channel everyone is talking about, it might have shifted (pink lines) to have a less disastrous fall (while it might be nice to buy some BTC             at $2,000 or less... probably not going to happen). I do realize there are breaks above and below the channel during the first couple months of the bear market so only time will tell how accurate this is (not very reassuring, I know). However, once BTC             hits the top of the channel there is good history of a strong rejection and we might see the bottom of the downtrend channel in a couple weeks ($4,500-$5,000). In the meantime I think there are still a few short sellers to rout out who were expecting utter catastrophe with the large head and shoulders pattern (not shown here, but shouldn't be hard to find just by googling).

On another note, the MACD seems to have materially broken out of a triangle (green lines) that started with the height of the BTC             bull market back in December. No idea what this could mean... more volatility , a reversal of the downtrend, or absolutely nothing - but worth keeping an eye on. I haven't seen anyone else post about this so that probably just means it's meaningless.

So, there it is... Let me know if you have any questions, concerns, criticisms, attacks, etc. - especially about the triangle in the MACD . Good luck and most importantly, have fun!
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