Is the bear market over?
Only one year ago BTC was trading at a price of ~ $2000..Prior to a 1,000% run-up in just 200 days.
We then saw a 70% draw-down from the top in only 53 days..
Bitcoin is still up 230% YTD and currently trading around $7000 (These kinds of returns are unheard of in traditional markets)
1. Fundamentally:
In the past few months a ton of money has left the market and we've seen a huge drop off in trading volume--
There have been no signs of new-money entering the market and many people who bought in near the top
have completely given up and left the space
Some looming threats are the uncertainty with Tether, and the possibility of a large exchange being hacked, like what happened with
MT. GOX.
*One major sign of a bear market being over is that bad news does not have a drastic effect on price.. this is certainly not the case
with the current Crypto market.*
People in the Crypto space are always talking about how institutions and banks are dying to get into Crypto - expecting
them to market-buy huge sums of BTC.. which will pump the price to new all-time highs so they can buy a Lambo from
their initial $1000 investment... If you believe this will happen you're sadly mistaken
-Crypto exchanges are (currently) not capable of handling massive trading volumes (which these institutions would bring)
-The liquidity does not allow for large sums of bitcoin to be bought or sold without skyrocketing or crashing the price.
-I believe that some bigger-players have been testing the liquidity using large orders.. which is why we see these "bart" patterns..
although these are most likely not institutions, rather some individual or small group with large sums of BTC.. taking money
from retail traders- like stealing candy from a baby.
*Not to mention- there is absolutely no chance an institution would permit their traders/investors to operate in an unregulated market*
If banks and institutions wanted to get a share of the Crypto market and begin trading it, they would first need to accumulate a sufficient supply,
allowing them to move the price in the direction they want.
"Smart Money", as people often call it, wants to obtain the most supply possible at the lowest price possible.
One way to do this without moving the market-price is through OTC buying which is certainly happening on a large scale.
In order to gain even more market share these larger players could buy huge sums of Bitcoin OTC, and then use this supply to:
Suppress price--> Accumulate--> Push price up--> Distribute .. rinse & repeat
This is done on both small & large time frames..
-In order for the bear market to end, we need to see a bigger period of accumulation. Some may argue that it's going on right now,
but if you had enough capital to move this market would you be accumulating at these prices (+230% YTD)? I sure wouldn't..
-In my opinion we won't see another major bull run until this happens, until every last hand is tested and most have given up, 95%
of these new margin traders are liquidated, all of these scam ICO tokens and useless erc-20 money grabs are gone, and people
believe Crypto is dead forever.
2. Technical Analysis: BTC USD 3D (Linear Scale)
I think the best possible scenario for Bitcoin at this point is to have a large decrease in price as fast as possible.
At this point, slowly grinding down forming lower highs on each bounce attempt is only prolonging the bear market.
On my chart I have a few key support and resistance areas marked, along with the volume profile on the right.
Short-term I would be looking to long the upper 6k levels, and I'm watching for a possible fake break-out/stop run
of the recent lows made on April 1st.. If this level breaks with weak momentum I would consider going long in that area with a tight stop-loss.
cont..
Only one year ago BTC was trading at a price of ~ $2000..Prior to a 1,000% run-up in just 200 days.
We then saw a 70% draw-down from the top in only 53 days..
Bitcoin is still up 230% YTD and currently trading around $7000 (These kinds of returns are unheard of in traditional markets)
1. Fundamentally:
In the past few months a ton of money has left the market and we've seen a huge drop off in trading volume--
There have been no signs of new-money entering the market and many people who bought in near the top
have completely given up and left the space
Some looming threats are the uncertainty with Tether, and the possibility of a large exchange being hacked, like what happened with
MT. GOX.
*One major sign of a bear market being over is that bad news does not have a drastic effect on price.. this is certainly not the case
with the current Crypto market.*
People in the Crypto space are always talking about how institutions and banks are dying to get into Crypto - expecting
them to market-buy huge sums of BTC.. which will pump the price to new all-time highs so they can buy a Lambo from
their initial $1000 investment... If you believe this will happen you're sadly mistaken
-Crypto exchanges are (currently) not capable of handling massive trading volumes (which these institutions would bring)
-The liquidity does not allow for large sums of bitcoin to be bought or sold without skyrocketing or crashing the price.
-I believe that some bigger-players have been testing the liquidity using large orders.. which is why we see these "bart" patterns..
although these are most likely not institutions, rather some individual or small group with large sums of BTC.. taking money
from retail traders- like stealing candy from a baby.
*Not to mention- there is absolutely no chance an institution would permit their traders/investors to operate in an unregulated market*
If banks and institutions wanted to get a share of the Crypto market and begin trading it, they would first need to accumulate a sufficient supply,
allowing them to move the price in the direction they want.
"Smart Money", as people often call it, wants to obtain the most supply possible at the lowest price possible.
One way to do this without moving the market-price is through OTC buying which is certainly happening on a large scale.
In order to gain even more market share these larger players could buy huge sums of Bitcoin OTC, and then use this supply to:
Suppress price--> Accumulate--> Push price up--> Distribute .. rinse & repeat
This is done on both small & large time frames..
-In order for the bear market to end, we need to see a bigger period of accumulation. Some may argue that it's going on right now,
but if you had enough capital to move this market would you be accumulating at these prices (+230% YTD)? I sure wouldn't..
-In my opinion we won't see another major bull run until this happens, until every last hand is tested and most have given up, 95%
of these new margin traders are liquidated, all of these scam ICO tokens and useless erc-20 money grabs are gone, and people
believe Crypto is dead forever.
2. Technical Analysis: BTC USD 3D (Linear Scale)
I think the best possible scenario for Bitcoin at this point is to have a large decrease in price as fast as possible.
At this point, slowly grinding down forming lower highs on each bounce attempt is only prolonging the bear market.
On my chart I have a few key support and resistance areas marked, along with the volume profile on the right.
Short-term I would be looking to long the upper 6k levels, and I'm watching for a possible fake break-out/stop run
of the recent lows made on April 1st.. If this level breaks with weak momentum I would consider going long in that area with a tight stop-loss.
cont..