Bear option: 2 hour close below 5100 will see continuation sell off to 4650 before pausing and possibly reversing. 4200 better area though.
Bull option: Looks unlikely, but a 2 hour close above 5300 or 5350 to be safe and we will see cascade short liquidations (there is certainly enough) to 6k+
The annual Finex FUD is just FUD until it's not. If you want to trade bitcoin you have to accept the risk that one day without warning, you could be rekt. Basically if the US wants to fuck them, they will fuck them.
In both scenarios, people will be feeling the pain in the next month.