BTCUSD- Breakout or retracement to sub-3000s?

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Am I bullish? I'd like to think I am, but data is making it hard for me to be convinced. I want to see us first break out of this falling wedge (red dotted lines), but from there, we have quite a heavy resistance to break (which by my count, it'll bring us to around 9800, and I would like to see on the 23rd). If we break up beyond 9800, I'm calling a breakout, in which I suggest opening a long and profit taking at 14400 for a nice 47% gain. As for the stop loss, I would call it around 8400. Let's take a look at the alternate, and unfortunately very plausible scenario.

If we don't break out of this downward channel , then I would consider us to be in the midst of an ABCD correction, and we're currently on the D wave. Using strict rules, if we use the same amount of days for the AB cycle (51), that should bring us to 4/24 to complete CD, which would bring us to around 3380 (assuming an equal length CD). A lot of people have been calling 3300 BTC , and I thought that sounded insane, but it really doesn't anymore.

I'm not saying the latter is definite, but I wouldn't rule it out. Please be very cautious with your trades, and set your stop losses accordingly.

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