Catching a fake out

With BTC I'd prefer to protect capital than enter a trade right now.
That said, there's a good short setup in the chart.
I see a chance that price will break above immediate resistance as market participants are increasingly looking for good news after crab season.

Not trade advice.
I hold no BTC

Comment:

DXY

Following a month-long bearish divergence, DXY looks to be consolidating.
A break above the flag/ falling wedge after new lows is likely.
I'm eye-balling the decline towards the lower boundary of the flag/ wedge to correspond with the short entry (21865 USD) and SL (22638)
Waiting to see if the monthly support is broken.

Comment:

Taking a look at SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) and BTCUSDLONGs

The decline in long positions from BTCUSD's September 21st low suggests early profit-taking. If September 21st was a double bottom, we should see less rate of change on the SOPR metric. This is not bullish and supports range lock until the narrative changes.

Comment:

EDIT: I should note SOPR is the average of ALL positions, not just Longs.
BTCUSDSHORTS have declined since September 21st.
Their loss has been netted in. If SOPR only measured Longs, the ROC would be greater than seen in the chart above.

Comment:

Okay lol the narrative changed pretty fast. Barring no more insolvencies, next target is 14k if we consider the log trendlines in the chart below. 400-week MA lines up too.

Comment:

BTC Open Interest tanked last hour. Waiting to see if price comes down with it.