BTC - The Battle Between Superbowl Bulls vs Inflation Bears
Some traders are nervous following the release of US inflation data this week. The degree to which that was priced in over the recent months is unclear. And given how severe inflation is ( inflation growing at it's fastest in 40 years), means the US Government will need to respond with a faster taper, which can be bearish for markets. Also some nerves rattled in terms of Russia and Ukraine, but I'm mixed on that since Russia also recently came out fairly supportive of crypto.
But with the Superbowl this weekend, bulls are feeling spicy . Some are hoping to see a little NFT action during the halftime show (half the presenters are active in the NFT space, in fact Snoop Dogg also has an entire DAO). Rumors also suggest some crypto commercials during the event, like Crypto.com. In any case expect volatility between the Superbowl bulls and the inflation bears.
In the near term I would -really- like to see bulls hold the line here on the 12h 20 EMA (currently around $42.1k) but failing that, we have a psychological and key support level at $42k, and the 38% fib retracement at $40.7k, the psychologically important $40k support and the 50% retracement at $39.4k.
❧ What does Papi expect? I'm leaning towards a macro bullish continuation, for now, and expect we will hold at least over $40k.
That said- the level of retracement in the coming week(s) will dictate if $30k or $50k is our next stop on higher timeframes. Dropping below the 50% retracement level starts bringing uptrend continuation into doubt and I will look for us to retest the lows from January.
On-chain looks healthy enough with most indicators bullish or neutral, with signs of continued accumulation. From a pure price action perspective, nothing on higher timeframes looks worrisome and this retracement (so far) is actually bullish . But macroeconomic factors are starting to spook more investors, sometimes for the right reasons. And we saw a late week rally by the US Dollar Index which generally leads to crypto downside.
❧ Whats Next? We will continue to watch all of the above, but at this time I'm inclined to say we have at least a little more upside and I'd be surprised if the market didn't test $50k again, it not higher. But I also see a possible shakeup to -all- markets, depending on how the US tackles inflation and whether it's successful, so I highly highly encourage you to run stoplosses, trade safely and don't overextend.
But with the Superbowl this weekend, bulls are feeling spicy . Some are hoping to see a little NFT action during the halftime show (half the presenters are active in the NFT space, in fact Snoop Dogg also has an entire DAO). Rumors also suggest some crypto commercials during the event, like Crypto.com. In any case expect volatility between the Superbowl bulls and the inflation bears.
In the near term I would -really- like to see bulls hold the line here on the 12h 20 EMA (currently around $42.1k) but failing that, we have a psychological and key support level at $42k, and the 38% fib retracement at $40.7k, the psychologically important $40k support and the 50% retracement at $39.4k.
❧ What does Papi expect? I'm leaning towards a macro bullish continuation, for now, and expect we will hold at least over $40k.
That said- the level of retracement in the coming week(s) will dictate if $30k or $50k is our next stop on higher timeframes. Dropping below the 50% retracement level starts bringing uptrend continuation into doubt and I will look for us to retest the lows from January.
On-chain looks healthy enough with most indicators bullish or neutral, with signs of continued accumulation. From a pure price action perspective, nothing on higher timeframes looks worrisome and this retracement (so far) is actually bullish . But macroeconomic factors are starting to spook more investors, sometimes for the right reasons. And we saw a late week rally by the US Dollar Index which generally leads to crypto downside.
❧ Whats Next? We will continue to watch all of the above, but at this time I'm inclined to say we have at least a little more upside and I'd be surprised if the market didn't test $50k again, it not higher. But I also see a possible shakeup to -all- markets, depending on how the US tackles inflation and whether it's successful, so I highly highly encourage you to run stoplosses, trade safely and don't overextend.
Comment:
Marked the area I'm watching
