user100000
Long

Elliott Wave Analysis of BTCUSD/BITSTAMP; 4H

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
647 18 8
The final c wave up of this expanding diagonal is underway. Orange wave ii seems to have completed recently.

I just want to clarify, the pattern since the 152 low isn't a correction as many seem to think. It's a leading diagonal wave (a) of a large multi-year expanding diagonal pattern. This wave will be much more explosive than previous "bubbles" because it is the fifth wave (longest) of an expanding diagonal

I have already projected wave 5/C in one of my old charts and I'm certain the bear market is over. I hope you were able to accumulate during the past several months. This sideways phase will not last much longer.
rivet.popper
2 years ago
So the bubble starts around July 4th, with a straight shot to 21k from 316?

Can you please explain why this didn't happen in March as given in your previous predictions?
+1 Reply
user100000 rivet.popper
2 years ago
I'm showing the basic wave structure of what the market should do. Right now, the c wave is underway to complete the diagonal. Once that is complete we get a green wave (b) correction. The price levels are not exact because I have no idea where will green wave (a) end up. I am showing the basic layout of the waves with the date I already have. All price level fibs have to be adjusted as the market completes each part. For timing info you could use the cycle duration chart I posted earlier; it needs updating. Please ignore time unless it's related to cycle lows.
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rivet.popper user100000
2 years ago
Well it was a big adjustment from the original moon scenario you gave for march 27th. Can you explain what went wrong please?
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user100000 rivet.popper
2 years ago
Which chart please?
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rivet.popper user100000
2 years ago
wave 5 of expanding diagonal update


These were missed targets in Feb:

diagonal update


most accurate forecast


Here's 8K by March missed:
8K by March 2015?


This was 6 months ago:
Wave 5 of C update


Here you said April 3rd:
Wave (1) update


I'm just wondering if you could please explain your errors there.
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user100000 rivet.popper
2 years ago
wave 5 of expanding diagonal update

the b wave correction was deeper and longer in duration but the overall expanding diagonal pattern is still intact.

diagonal update

wave a and wave b taking more time. nothing wrong with it if you ignore the time. the overall pattern is still the same (expanding diagonal)

most accurate forecast

the basic pattern is correct (expanding diagonal) but the timing is wrong. i don't remember how i chose the time. i didn't know much about how cycles work at the time

8K by March 2015?

at the time, there was no overlap between wave 1 and 4. once that happened it became a diagonal. the market is more predictable now as a diagonal

Wave 5 of C update

that was wave 5 of C. I think I was showing the basic impulse wave. of course I had no way of knowing where will it end. I haven't thought of projecting wave 5 at the time. This was something I recently learned about.

Wave (1) update

at the time, I thought it was a diagonal but the pattern changed

I feel I have improved greatly and learned a lot more about EW and cycles since then.
+2 Reply
rivet.popper user100000
2 years ago
I really appreciate your explanations here. I do see your counts improving a lot.
+1 Reply
oaksacorn rivet.popper
2 years ago
:-)
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oaksacorn user100000
2 years ago
Indeed you have. Nice work.
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oaksacorn rivet.popper
2 years ago
rivet?
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rivet.popper oaksacorn
2 years ago
The market can only go up or down. It is easy for one to pretend to know what's going to happen next if they just choose one direction and keep saying the same thing.

I don't think User100k is doing this but I also don't want to gloss over the EW count errors, this way we can all learn something!

It's a bit easy to just explain EW miscounts as "my timing was off for when the big moonride starts". This is a big problem with EW: too easy to wriggle out of mistakes. So I think I have a right to check on the integrity of the poster.
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oaksacorn rivet.popper
2 years ago
Yes EW is a pain in the ass. So be it. From an EW standpoint, 100K is doing a great job. It is useless to grill the issue to death. I have only chosen one direction since posting because I am focusing on the bigger picture while guarding against zero and I have only been posting since major Monthly indicators have maintained oversold conditions.
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oaksacorn rivet.popper
2 years ago
Fundamentally and technically, if bitcoin is anything, then levels go much higher. If bitcoin is crap, then it goes to zero. We are testing that binary reflection point with monthly indicators way oversold. Larger EW counts show potential turning points and higher levels also. Panet X could do a drive by and cause an EMP and shove this to zero in a heart beat....along with everything else.
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rivet.popper oaksacorn
2 years ago
I would enjoy reading your counts and predictions then whenever you post these. It would be nice to see counts that agree for a change (another problem with EW: too many interpretations of the same patterns)...
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alteredend
2 years ago
Have you ever posted a chart shorting?
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user100000 alteredend
2 years ago
I don't see any opportunity to short at these levels. It's really pushing your luck
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oaksacorn user100000
2 years ago
If you are that nibble, you should be preoccupied with nurturing your longs from 167 and not messing with shorts!
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oaksacorn alteredend
2 years ago
If you are short from strong levels and you still have 15% on then so be it. Good for you. That said, I am not sure why you would be beating the drum on short scenarios with the 9,3,3 stochastic flat lining for 5.5 months outside of nurturing the remaining shorts you have on?
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