BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Today we are looking at the H4 time frame where you can clearly identify a falling wedge & downtrend channel !
BTC is currently below the clouds resistance area (33500-34000) in this 4 hours chart and also below 2 important levels which are, respectively :
1) MBB @ 32'822
2) Kijun-Sen @ 33'133
and slightly above Tenkan-Sen @ 32'384 (very shy !)
So what next ?
Well, I do not change my view about further development to come which is calling for further downside towards, firstly to the former low @ 31'589 and if it is the case, I would suggest to watch carefully on intraday time frames, at the technical indicators and mainly to the RSI to potentially detect some bullish divergence (s) which could trigger a tactical recovery supported by the base of the falling wedge pattern.
A failure to hold above the support line of this pattern would then confirm further downside in the cards calling for 30'300 ahead of 30'000 as already mentioned in the past.
My strategic target remains 27'169, this level being the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the big 3850-64895 rally; once this level will be reached, situation will be reassessed :-)
On the upside, first significant resistance @ 33'500-34'000 and only a sustainable move above 34'000 would force to a view reassessment of my expected bearish scenario.
All the best and take care
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Comment: As expected BTC went down and nearly reach my first target of 30'300 (low being 30'555, so far)
Watch intraday time frames to get clues and detect a signal of a potential bullish divergence which would trigger a short term recovery and provide tactical long exposure opportunity in keeping in mind a disciplined risk & reward approach (trailing stop loss) as it is not a STRATEGIN trend reversal yet, but ONLY A CORRECTIVE MOVE IN A BROAD BEAR TREND CALLING FOR LOWER LEVELS !
Watch carefully price action around the psychological support level of 30'000 ; a failure to stay and hold above that level would put the focus on the 27'000 area ( - 10% !)
Have a nice week
Kind regards