Is tether a black swan? Discussing Bitcoin price action

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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Though the tether news is scary and I personally cut, price action hasn't really confirmed much. I view tether as a black swan, but the market hasn't really shared that view thus far.

I'm using the ascending Triangle on the 3D as my guide.

Bull case: 3 day Close above 5470 confirms w/ a target of 6150

Bear case: Close below 4990 and busts w/ a target of 4350

This is not investment advice. I am sharing to seek comments and insight from others. Thanks.
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