Looks like only two ways bitcoin can play out in my book at this point.
1) The chart above
This is likely because volume has been consistent and not spikey, if volume continues to decreases from this point on, then this is highly likely that this will play out, with a bottom of 2800, no more sudden sell off. This would prove the market has natural strength in the next bull run.
2)
A more volatile outlook, Bitcoin could actually have a sudden spring selloff if support proves to be as weak as it has been, with the potential brief bottom of as low as 1850-2250. Then after the capitulation event, an automatic recovery would naturally happen to thrust the price back up to resistance levels, only to get rejected at at 5k and drop back down and recovered at 3300 as a last point of support (LPS) (Q2 2019) and eventually break 5k with conviction as a sign of strength (SOS) for next bull run. (Q3) This scenario will play out if players with deep pockets are suppressing the market heavily.
We will know if 1 plays out if volume decreases. Plenty of chances to buy and accumulate for the SOS break
We will know if 2 plays out if volume increases causing another massive selloff and the price naturally and seamlessly recovers, this would be the most rewarding scenario but also the most volatile.
Both are extremely likely, and I can't see things happening any other way.
Either way, we should expect a crypto bull run by End of Q2 or start of Q3 of next year.
1) The chart above
This is likely because volume has been consistent and not spikey, if volume continues to decreases from this point on, then this is highly likely that this will play out, with a bottom of 2800, no more sudden sell off. This would prove the market has natural strength in the next bull run.
2)
A more volatile outlook, Bitcoin could actually have a sudden spring selloff if support proves to be as weak as it has been, with the potential brief bottom of as low as 1850-2250. Then after the capitulation event, an automatic recovery would naturally happen to thrust the price back up to resistance levels, only to get rejected at at 5k and drop back down and recovered at 3300 as a last point of support (LPS) (Q2 2019) and eventually break 5k with conviction as a sign of strength (SOS) for next bull run. (Q3) This scenario will play out if players with deep pockets are suppressing the market heavily.
We will know if 1 plays out if volume decreases. Plenty of chances to buy and accumulate for the SOS break
We will know if 2 plays out if volume increases causing another massive selloff and the price naturally and seamlessly recovers, this would be the most rewarding scenario but also the most volatile.
Both are extremely likely, and I can't see things happening any other way.
Either way, we should expect a crypto bull run by End of Q2 or start of Q3 of next year.
Comment:
Here's an even longer outlook on BTC/USD we see were in a bigger channel according to bitstamp data.