Reason 1 is that the past 3 times the "touched" or broke below the 20% the price went up (brown arrows).
As an extra layer of safety I use the StochRSI that shows the "right moment" of entry,when the blue line crosses the red one upwards in oversold territorry.
Reason 2 we are at the apex of a downward triangle which usually means that the trend will change to either sideways or upwards. If you combine also the fact that there is a resistance at the 5400-5850 range makes this reasoning even stronger.
In my opinion the price will begin to rise after a couple of weeks for it needs to break the descending that comes from the top first, so there is a chance that the price will even go further down to the 5400-5850.
Resistance areas are around 9100 and then at around 11500 (fibo)
There is also a chance that before it goes up the price can form a cup with a handle, the handle between the said resistances.The reason that I am thinking this is that the is longer in the neutral zone than in previous cases and that the StochRSI has a small drawback during ascending (arrow).
Thats all, I would like to have your views, especially the ones that do not agree with mine. I am not a prof and I am learning constantly.