pkb6698
Long

Reaching last 2017 peak VS 2020 Halving

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
0. The above chart was made in view of the possibility that the four-year cycles of BTC is likely to change to three-year when BTC reaches the 2017 peak before 2020 Halving. If you look at the main chart, you can easily understand. Therefore, the explanation is omitted. This article is not for sell or buy. If you liked this idea, please, 'Thumbs up', 'Follow', 'Comment'~^^

< 2014 ~ 2017 > F1( 11488% ), A1( 87% ), B1( 43% ), C1( 54% ), D1( 66% ), E1( 1606% )

< 2018 ~ 2020 > F2( 2430% / 10359% ), A2( 71% ), B2( 38% ), C2( 57% ), D2( 69% ), E2( 305% / 1580% )


1. the comparison of indicator : 50MA, 100MA, 200MA



2. Current Coin Market Status
- Coin Market Cap : $ 325 Billion
- Bitcoin Dominance : 62.2%
- Volume by National Currencies : USD( 74.8% ), JPY( 14.7.0% ), KRW ( 5.8% )


3. The Comparison of Coin Market Cap
- Coin Market Cap : $ 325 billion
- Stock Market Cap around the world : $ 50 trillion / 0.68%
- Korean Stock Market Cap : $ 1760 billion / about 18.5%
- Samsung Electronics Cap : $ 230 billoion < Coin Market Cap


4. Futures Expiration date
- CME : On the last Friday of every month at 4 pm
- CB0E : X


5. Korean Premium
- BTC (3.5%), ETH(3.5%), XRP(3.5%), *** GTO (28.0%), STORM(7.5%), GNT (5.5%)


6. Other Long-Term BTC Forecasts
- A similarity with the 2015 bottom &Influence of halving


- The rising curve by pattern


- A similarity with the 2015 double bottom

Comment: Comparison : 2018. 11. ~ 2019. 04.

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Comment: Long-term trend line, 50MA, Fibonacci 0.168
Comment: bear markets or adjustment? On large frames, It can be seen that the bear markets in 2018 is continuing after rising due to technical rebound in 4K floor, and taking the resistance at Fibonacci 0.618. On my personal basis, If BTC price keep just 9.7K(bottom on July 2) until the next CME expiration date (July 27th), I believe that it will be a -30% adjustment, which was commonplace bullish markets in 2017.
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Large volatility on July CME expiration date after flag pattern
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By 2020, 20K or 7K?
Comment: or Alts season like Dec 2015?
Back. It dropped as you expected, but seeing the speed at which it dropped, what is your take on that? Still 9.6k or we're really crashing? Or is it neutral, like 50/50?
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pkb6698 pablo36
@pablo36, bear markets or adjustment? On large frames, It can be seen that the bear markets in 2018 is continuing after rising due to technical rebound in 4K floor, and taking the resistance at Fibonacci 0.618. On my personal basis, If BTC price keep just 9.7K(bottom on July 2) until the next CME expiration date (July 27th), I believe that it will be a -30% adjustment, which was commonplace bullish markets in 2017.
+1 Reply
it can also mean it will drop back to the red curve and follow its natural 4 year course, not the tether pumped course.
+1 Reply
pkb6698 nagihatoum
@nagihatoum, Thanks for comment, I agree with you. I think 4-year-cycle based on the Halving is basic setting, but I thought Why is it so fast, so made two perspectives. I think if history repeat, BTC is able to walk sideways for a long time.
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@pkb6698, sideways is good for alts
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pkb6698 nagihatoum
@nagihatoum, I think that for the Alts to rise, BTC's Sideway is good, but it's also important for BTC to break the peak(20K) of 2017.
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When altcoins season is going to start?

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