The Truth. Higher Bitcoin Prices Coming.
My purpose in making these charts is to use reason to dispel doubt. Our Key indicators will always be the 50 Day Moving Average and also the 200 Day Moving Average. When one looks at the 50MA they can see that the direction is clearly biased to the upside, so the path of least resistance is UP. This does not mean that we won't have down drafts in the short term, but the 50 is probably one of the strongest indicators for primary trend direction.
The 200 MA is simply a drop dead "Get Out" indicator and if prices fall and CLOSE below that and the 50 is slanting downwards then we can expect a long bear market, but we would be out WAY before that from other indicators. I used to use a simple 200 day moving average method, and invested in mutual funds when the S&P closed above the 200 MA. I would buy and not sell until the index fell and closed below the 200. This gave me an average "compounded" gain of 20%+ every year over a 5 year period, essentially doubling my portfolio each and every 4-5 years, keeping me out of recessions and downdrafts that could seriously hurt my wealth. We are so far above the 200 day MA, that I don't see this drop dead sell date anytime soon, and that IS a good thing. We have plenty of room to breathe.
That being said, we are way ahead of the game at this point and this retrace is helping us to let out the steam that made everything so frothy.
Therefore keep your eye on that 50MA, and if it evens out and goes sideways or slants down, then we may be in for a bigger long term retrace, but until then, the directional pressure will be UP! I can not emphasize this enough. That 50MA is key!
OK, other indicators....... The stochastic is pointing down showing some continued weakness, and the MACD Momma/Poppa lines (green/red) are converging. In addition the MACD histogram is getting closer to that zero line showing a shift in momentum. We do, indeed, have the S.A.R. Parabolic under the candles and that shows momentum is still to the upside. I am carefully watching the Momma/Poppa, the histogram, and the parabolic. A crossing of the Momma/Poppa, the histogram moving below zero or the S.A.R. switching sides would be a stronger indicator of us moving further down. That is an objective outlook, based on reason and years of watching and trading futures, options, stocks, indexes, mutual funds and YES, cryptos.
However, unless that 50 MA flattens or turns, no matter what happens here, we will eventually go higher. We may dip. We may dip more than usual, BUT we will recover to the upside and move to All Time Highs as long as that 50MA does it's thing as it's been doing for several years now, continuing to angle UP!
It seems that the major support will be that .786 fib line at 16850.
Keep calm, HODL, and BTFD. It may be scary, but remember most technicians were looking at 8,000-10,000 by the end of 2017 to signal higher prices for 2018. If we dipped to the .786, the .618, or even the .50, we'd still be way, WAY ahead of the game for those predictions.
Conclusion: Expect downdraft to be limited to perhaps the 21st of December to Christmas, then a move up into 2018. Conservative estimate is $45,000 by end of 2018, but probably more like $70k-$80k. In addition, I am still HODLING all forks which are currently BitcoinCash and BitcoinGold. These are evening out the losses currently experienced in Bitcoin itself. Any change in the Momma/Poppa, the Histogram, the S.A.R. are not indicators of selling as much as they are of buying the dip when they bottom and change direction showing upward momentum again.
If you wanted a dip, this is it. However, I expect it to be short-lived.
Breathe.
My purpose in making these charts is to use reason to dispel doubt. Our Key indicators will always be the 50 Day Moving Average and also the 200 Day Moving Average. When one looks at the 50MA they can see that the direction is clearly biased to the upside, so the path of least resistance is UP. This does not mean that we won't have down drafts in the short term, but the 50 is probably one of the strongest indicators for primary trend direction.
The 200 MA is simply a drop dead "Get Out" indicator and if prices fall and CLOSE below that and the 50 is slanting downwards then we can expect a long bear market, but we would be out WAY before that from other indicators. I used to use a simple 200 day moving average method, and invested in mutual funds when the S&P closed above the 200 MA. I would buy and not sell until the index fell and closed below the 200. This gave me an average "compounded" gain of 20%+ every year over a 5 year period, essentially doubling my portfolio each and every 4-5 years, keeping me out of recessions and downdrafts that could seriously hurt my wealth. We are so far above the 200 day MA, that I don't see this drop dead sell date anytime soon, and that IS a good thing. We have plenty of room to breathe.
That being said, we are way ahead of the game at this point and this retrace is helping us to let out the steam that made everything so frothy.
Therefore keep your eye on that 50MA, and if it evens out and goes sideways or slants down, then we may be in for a bigger long term retrace, but until then, the directional pressure will be UP! I can not emphasize this enough. That 50MA is key!
OK, other indicators....... The stochastic is pointing down showing some continued weakness, and the MACD Momma/Poppa lines (green/red) are converging. In addition the MACD histogram is getting closer to that zero line showing a shift in momentum. We do, indeed, have the S.A.R. Parabolic under the candles and that shows momentum is still to the upside. I am carefully watching the Momma/Poppa, the histogram, and the parabolic. A crossing of the Momma/Poppa, the histogram moving below zero or the S.A.R. switching sides would be a stronger indicator of us moving further down. That is an objective outlook, based on reason and years of watching and trading futures, options, stocks, indexes, mutual funds and YES, cryptos.
However, unless that 50 MA flattens or turns, no matter what happens here, we will eventually go higher. We may dip. We may dip more than usual, BUT we will recover to the upside and move to All Time Highs as long as that 50MA does it's thing as it's been doing for several years now, continuing to angle UP!
It seems that the major support will be that .786 fib line at 16850.
Keep calm, HODL, and BTFD. It may be scary, but remember most technicians were looking at 8,000-10,000 by the end of 2017 to signal higher prices for 2018. If we dipped to the .786, the .618, or even the .50, we'd still be way, WAY ahead of the game for those predictions.
Conclusion: Expect downdraft to be limited to perhaps the 21st of December to Christmas, then a move up into 2018. Conservative estimate is $45,000 by end of 2018, but probably more like $70k-$80k. In addition, I am still HODLING all forks which are currently BitcoinCash and BitcoinGold. These are evening out the losses currently experienced in Bitcoin itself. Any change in the Momma/Poppa, the Histogram, the S.A.R. are not indicators of selling as much as they are of buying the dip when they bottom and change direction showing upward momentum again.
If you wanted a dip, this is it. However, I expect it to be short-lived.
Breathe.