Hello all,
So we have dropped out till 7030 and now moving sideways around 7100-7150. I have 3 scenarios in mind:
- We will drop to 6900-7000 range, we bounce back, rise and shine to 9000s (35%)
- We will drop to 6900-7000 range, we bounce back till 7300-7400; then we test 6900-7000 again. (40%)
- We will drop to 6900-7000 range, we do not bounce back :( (25%)
My heart is with the first option just like most of the people here, but I would place my bet to the second option. So why critical days ahead?
Obviously the support level is coming. In my view, the bearish momentum has diminished in the past 4-5 days. So a bounce up from here can be reasonable. My question is "are we ready to destroy the resistances?"
The bulls seems to be not ready, but who knows.
Ichimoku cloud is getting thinner for the coming 2-3 days in the 2hour time frame, buy the 4 hour time frame is just horrifying. If the bull manage to gather their strenght, the coming 2-3 days we might breakthrough even 8000. Wouldn't that be something? Otherwise, I believe we will not be able to make it through 7700 easily and fall back to the support line once again.
I am not opening big positions these days, I wait for the confirmation for the reversal. Maybe, some day trading while drinking a glass of wine, but that's all.
I wish you all good luck and good fortune.
Cheers!
Alper
So we have dropped out till 7030 and now moving sideways around 7100-7150. I have 3 scenarios in mind:
- We will drop to 6900-7000 range, we bounce back, rise and shine to 9000s (35%)
- We will drop to 6900-7000 range, we bounce back till 7300-7400; then we test 6900-7000 again. (40%)
- We will drop to 6900-7000 range, we do not bounce back :( (25%)
My heart is with the first option just like most of the people here, but I would place my bet to the second option. So why critical days ahead?
Obviously the support level is coming. In my view, the bearish momentum has diminished in the past 4-5 days. So a bounce up from here can be reasonable. My question is "are we ready to destroy the resistances?"
The bulls seems to be not ready, but who knows.
Ichimoku cloud is getting thinner for the coming 2-3 days in the 2hour time frame, buy the 4 hour time frame is just horrifying. If the bull manage to gather their strenght, the coming 2-3 days we might breakthrough even 8000. Wouldn't that be something? Otherwise, I believe we will not be able to make it through 7700 easily and fall back to the support line once again.
I am not opening big positions these days, I wait for the confirmation for the reversal. Maybe, some day trading while drinking a glass of wine, but that's all.
I wish you all good luck and good fortune.
Cheers!
Alper
Comment:
My 7550-7600 resistance range seems to be in play. The price held quite long here, so it gives me confidence that the price will not drop below 7000 in short notice. I do think that there is still room to grow, it can go lower a little bit till 7350-7400 and raise till 7650-7700 within 2 days.
Still, I think risk/reward is low; it is a no trade zone. If you are mad enough, I would go short with tight stop loss limits.
Still, I think risk/reward is low; it is a no trade zone. If you are mad enough, I would go short with tight stop loss limits.
There is a big chance that this was just a short squeeze. My expectation was the price to drop 6900 where there were a lot of buyers waiting (I am one of them as well) and with that momentum break through 8000 in just 2 days. Right now I have some doubts.
The ichimoku clouds in the 3 hour is just to thick. The rally seems to be cooling off and if there isn't any more buyers left, the bears will take over. The max price that it can get seems to me 7550 today and tomorrow.