The name of the game in crypto is when to bias BTC, Alts and Fiat.
An analysis on BTC.D, ETHBTC and other ALTBTC charts shows when was best to hold each category to maximise BTC stack.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing.
I do not intent to short BTC and bias into fiat during a bull market.
It is safer to preserve BTC stack and stomach -40% corrections.
It is much easier to increase BTC stack by identifying a good altseason than timing corrections.
One good altseason is all it takes to 5x a BTC stack.
An altseason is a shy creature but is very profitable if caught.
Identifying an altseason is more important than picking coins.
Altseason will pump most solid altcoins 3-5x vs BTC. An index of 5-10 liquid coins is all that is required.
Indicators for altseason include:
- BTC.D bearish
- ETHBTC bullish
- TOTAL (exclude BTC) more bullish than BTCUSD
- Major Alts vs BTC bullish
- No BTC-dominant events in near future (major hardforks, major institutional onramps, celebrities publicly buying BTC and not alts, govnernments allowing
bitcoin and banning/regulating alts). Fear in bull markets manifests itself in dumping alts, not btc.
- Some legitimate coins in top 300 start doing 20x
- The break of previous cycle ATH of 1.2k started the largest altseason we have seen so far (April - May 2017)
- Interestingly we had an altseason post the BTC top for most of January 2018.
- Twitter sentiment is not that useful because people will shill their bags whether altseason, btcseason or bearseason. However the shilling and boasting will
be noticable stronger during an altseason. There is no way to measure this and is not reliable.
- In the middle of the trend (the meat the potatoes) seasonality seems to go (ABCBABCBA) BTCseason, 35% correction, Altseason, 35% correction, BTCseason,
etc
- In the beginning and end of the BTCUSD trend (the risky part), seasonality tends to go (ABABAB) BTCseason, 35% correction, BTCseason
An analysis on BTC.D, ETHBTC and other ALTBTC charts shows when was best to hold each category to maximise BTC stack.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing.
I do not intent to short BTC and bias into fiat during a bull market.
It is safer to preserve BTC stack and stomach -40% corrections.
It is much easier to increase BTC stack by identifying a good altseason than timing corrections.
One good altseason is all it takes to 5x a BTC stack.
An altseason is a shy creature but is very profitable if caught.
Identifying an altseason is more important than picking coins.
Altseason will pump most solid altcoins 3-5x vs BTC. An index of 5-10 liquid coins is all that is required.
Indicators for altseason include:
- BTC.D bearish
- ETHBTC bullish
- TOTAL (exclude BTC) more bullish than BTCUSD
- Major Alts vs BTC bullish
- No BTC-dominant events in near future (major hardforks, major institutional onramps, celebrities publicly buying BTC and not alts, govnernments allowing
bitcoin and banning/regulating alts). Fear in bull markets manifests itself in dumping alts, not btc.
- Some legitimate coins in top 300 start doing 20x
- The break of previous cycle ATH of 1.2k started the largest altseason we have seen so far (April - May 2017)
- Interestingly we had an altseason post the BTC top for most of January 2018.
- Twitter sentiment is not that useful because people will shill their bags whether altseason, btcseason or bearseason. However the shilling and boasting will
be noticable stronger during an altseason. There is no way to measure this and is not reliable.
- In the middle of the trend (the meat the potatoes) seasonality seems to go (ABCBABCBA) BTCseason, 35% correction, Altseason, 35% correction, BTCseason,
etc
- In the beginning and end of the BTCUSD trend (the risky part), seasonality tends to go (ABABAB) BTCseason, 35% correction, BTCseason