"Bitcoin Goes to The Moon!!!" - Really?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I like to read posts and news with titles like "Bitcoin will be at 30 000 level soon", "Bitcoin will cost 50 000USD" "Bitcoin will reach 100 000USD in 2030", "Bitcoin will be 1 000 0000USD in 50 years", "Bitcoin starts a new bullish trend to The Moon" and something like this. They are so funny! Yes, a words combination like "Bitcoin Goes To the Moon" is powerful for crypto enthusiasts and attracts attention, but mainly it's too far from reality.

We must understand that trying to predict the cost of Bitcoin in 1, 2, 5, 10 years we just play a game. I can say that "Bitcoin will each 100 000USD in 5 years", but there is nothing behind this statement.

There are many factors which influence on any market. A longer period, more factors will be important for a market and they will change the demand and supply value differently. A longer period, more factors and more combinations of factors should be taken into consideration. It will push a market up and down. If you don't have a workable Crystal Ball, you won't be able to predict Bitcoin's price even in 1-2 years. What about longer periods of time? So, as a result, all statements like this become useless for using them in trading or investing.

Let's move closer to reality. We have Bitcoin market which moves sideways at the possible bottom. For reaching that highs from catchy titles, Bitcoin will have to pass several steps. The 1st step which must be done - starting a bullish trend . For this, we must get some factors supporting the market and increasing the demand in the medium and long run.

The 2nd step - reaching key levels. They are 6000.00, 10 000.00 and 20 0000.00 resistance levels. Only reaching these levels we can think about a further step.

The 3rd step - making a new All Time High. Only if the market can repeat the previous performance, only after reaching the previous ATH , we will be able to think about "To The Moon" or reaching 25 000, 30 000 or 50 000 levels. But that analysis will be based on the current performance and possible factors which will support buyers to reach new highs. Such prediction will cover a short period of time, and it will be closer to reality. It will possible to use this information for trading or investing.

Only in such way, these titles will make sense.

So, concluding, the long term prediction can be too far from reality. A longer period of time, more factors will influence on the market and move it in different directions. Without knowing all the important factors, it is very difficult to predict the market movements in the long run. Catchy titles like "Bitcoin Goes to The Moon" and something like this - are very good for catching people's attention but there is no value behind them. We should not use this information for trading or investing in the long run.

I share with you my thoughts about Bitcoin's and its possible future levels. If you have your own vision, please share it in comments. I will be glad to discuss with you.
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I agree that BTC should go up now to around 5k, not so sure about 6k though, but after this I see two very valid reasons in historical patterns why btc should make a new low to 1700-2400$


Not yet I think. First under 3000 and then will see...
DLavrov Martinezzz
@Martinezzz, the reasons for falling under 3000?
DLavrov Bulldragon
@Bulldragon, your Cystal Ball gives nice variants)
+1 Reply
DLavrov DLavrov
@DLavrov, Crystal Ball*
What a great exercise in tautology.

Catchy titles are useless but result in many likes. Let’s make one!

To summarize this beautiful post - many titles calling moon, check. Great revelation that before moon we must break a few levels and definitely need to establish a new ATH, check. Without knowing all the important factors, it is very difficult to predict the market movements in the long run, check.

By the way, on the day of the post there were more top TV predictions of btc going down and calls for shorts. The author chose to highlight the ones featuring Moon predictions. But no matter. Likes don’t smell.
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