Djyo_the

BTC rise and fall

Long
Djyo_the Updated   
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
The recent fall of BTC value isn't similar to the previous one because the investors hypothesis and belief system have completely changed.
BTC was first an obscure cryptocurrency before 2017 until it went mainstream.
BTC speculating value then sustained on the investor's belief that it will become future's money.

But the peak of investment of December + seriously bad news in Asia have completely change the background causing the actuel cryptocurrency's fall.
The bubble is now exploding until BTC value will reach back his 2017 value.

It's time to leave the ship.
Credit to JVC Finance Forum
Comment:
It does seem that we are now closer to the optimistic hypothesis since right now investors are still believing in bitcoin future and HOLDing their share.
Bitcoin decrease's is limited by the lower curve: the investor don't expect the value to fall lower than the previous lower point, limiting their selling movement.

But the possibility that investor will suddenly realize their mistake and panic sell is still an eventuality if, for example, media coverage crush their faith or after a psychological barrier rupture. Then they will not expect bitcoin value to rise higher than the previous high point pushing bitcoin decreasing curve toward the pessimistic hypothesis.

How low will the bitcoin value fall to? We cannot really know but based on the previous rise explained on this graphic we can expect it to fall close to 2017 beginning value: when investor's motives were not immediate income: 1000 to 2000 dollar.
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