Djyo_the
Long

BTC rise and fall

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
The recent fall of BTC             value isn't similar to the previous one because the investors hypothesis and belief system have completely changed.
BTC             was first an obscure cryptocurrency before 2017 until it went mainstream.
BTC             speculating value then sustained on the investor's belief that it will become future's money.

But the peak of investment of December + seriously bad news in Asia have completely change the background causing the actuel cryptocurrency's fall.
The bubble is now exploding until BTC             value will reach back his 2017 value.

It's time to leave the ship.
Credit to JVC Finance Forum
Comment: It does seem that we are now closer to the optimistic hypothesis since right now investors are still believing in bitcoin future and HOLDing their share.
Bitcoin decrease's is limited by the lower curve: the investor don't expect the value to fall lower than the previous lower point, limiting their selling movement.

But the possibility that investor will suddenly realize their mistake and panic sell is still an eventuality if, for example, media coverage crush their faith or after a psychological barrier rupture. Then they will not expect bitcoin value to rise higher than the previous high point pushing bitcoin decreasing curve toward the pessimistic hypothesis.

How low will the bitcoin value fall to? We cannot really know but based on the previous rise explained on this graphic we can expect it to fall close to 2017 beginning value: when investor's motives were not immediate income: 1000 to 2000 dollar.
It does seem that we are now closer to the optimistic hypothesis since right now investors are still believing in bitcoin future and HOLDing their share.
Bitcoin decrease's is limited by the lower curve: the investor don't expect the value to fall lower than the previous lower point, limiting their selling movement.

But the possibility that investor will suddenly realize their mistake and panic sell is still an eventuality if, for example, media coverage crush their faith or after a psychological barrier rupture. Then they will not expect bitcoin value to rise higher than the previous high point pushing bitcoin decreasing curve toward the pessimistic hypothesis.

How low will the bitcoin value fall to? We cannot really know but based on the previous rise explained on this graphic we can expect it to fall close to 2017 beginning value: when investor's motives were not immediate income: 1000 to 2000 dollar.
Reply
joined just two hours ago to post this..well done..bye bye then
Reply
Djyo_the retiringsoon1
@retiringsoon1, Thanks! goodbye, see you at 2000
Reply
@Djyo_the, are you only bearish on BTC or ETH and other alts too? BTC had a slower and more conservative rise compared to ETH and others
Reply
Djyo_the devilninja777
@devilninja777, Every other crypto are linked to the BTC therefore they will suffer the same fate. They might at first constitute a refuge value during BTC crash but they suffer from the same macroeconomic problem right now:

- Most of actuel investors were seeking important short term profit. Based on today crypto's model new incomers are needed to feed the machine and increase theirvalue
- The incomers inflow was broken by: the limit of people who can afford to speculate and political bad news.
- Before then, mostly everyone investing on the crypto market was an easy winner. There were crisis but not at this magnitude.
Today cash flow from loosers, increasing in proportion, to winners (the smart and lucky ones). And loosers are realizing this as they leave the crypto wich value is decreasing.


Obviously the projection curves on this graph are based on pure visual, I cannot predict the rythm of disinvestment nor final crypto value but i'm sure it will fall badly in the next few month.
Reply
EN English
EN English (UK)
EN English (IN)
DE Deutsch
FR Français
ES Español
IT Italiano
PL Polski
SV Svenska
TR Türkçe
RU Русский
PT Português
ID Bahasa Indonesia
MS Bahasa Melayu
TH ภาษาไทย
VI Tiếng Việt
JA 日本語
KO 한국어
ZH 简体中文
ZH 繁體中文
AR العربية
Home Stock Screener Forex Screener Crypto Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Stock Charting Library Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing My Support Tickets Contact Support Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out