As you may appreciate, price action is bullish, but basically constrained to a rising wedge.
Moreover price is already in touch with upper monthly BB, area of maximum resistance.
October volume so far looks unimpressive despite the upmove and BBs are slightly shrinking.
Overall all the above looks pretty bearish, of course.
We do have to keep an eye on key areas such as 10500-10800$ and 9000$.
Yet we shouldn't (yet) jump to conclusions and instantly bet on a bearish outcome.
On the contrary we'd better wait and see.
As you may notice RSI / Stock RSI aren't flashing red signals yet.
CMF looks still healthy, as well as MACD.
We should also consider that a hyphotetical breakout of upper BB confirmed on monthly close would be a very bullish event.
As well as a rejection of such a rising wedge, despite being against probabilities.
That would spark a sensible further upmove, eventually.
Finally we have to weigh in the fact we just had a monthly Parabolic SAR flipping, which is itself encouraging (as i posted elsewhere).
So we're at a crossroad.
My honest advice is the following: don't take any decisions now.
Ignore spikes and wait for upcoming monthly close.
Have a SL if you're in, give it a chance.
Moreover price is already in touch with upper monthly BB, area of maximum resistance.
October volume so far looks unimpressive despite the upmove and BBs are slightly shrinking.
Overall all the above looks pretty bearish, of course.
We do have to keep an eye on key areas such as 10500-10800$ and 9000$.
Yet we shouldn't (yet) jump to conclusions and instantly bet on a bearish outcome.
On the contrary we'd better wait and see.
As you may notice RSI / Stock RSI aren't flashing red signals yet.
CMF looks still healthy, as well as MACD.
We should also consider that a hyphotetical breakout of upper BB confirmed on monthly close would be a very bullish event.
As well as a rejection of such a rising wedge, despite being against probabilities.
That would spark a sensible further upmove, eventually.
Finally we have to weigh in the fact we just had a monthly Parabolic SAR flipping, which is itself encouraging (as i posted elsewhere).
So we're at a crossroad.
My honest advice is the following: don't take any decisions now.
Ignore spikes and wait for upcoming monthly close.
Have a SL if you're in, give it a chance.
Comment:
This is dangerous: back into rising wedge and close to upper BB:
Price needs to confirm the attempted breakout or things will get cumbersome from there.
Have a stop, don't play with fire here.
Price needs to confirm the attempted breakout or things will get cumbersome from there.
Have a stop, don't play with fire here.
Comment:
Still 3 days to monthly close.
Friday CME futures expiration.
Further volatility likely.
Friday CME futures expiration.
Further volatility likely.
Comment:
Yes, today is the day.
Let's see this monthly close.
Let's see this monthly close.
Comment:
Reached 14100$ resistance.
Comment:
Mission accomplished:
* Parabolic SAR reversal: achieved
* Close over upper monhtly BB. achieved
I'd expect very high volatility within 2 months and hopefully a strong impulse.
More insight within next analysis.
* Parabolic SAR reversal: achieved
* Close over upper monhtly BB. achieved
I'd expect very high volatility within 2 months and hopefully a strong impulse.
More insight within next analysis.
Comment:
Now IF bulls manage to breakout upper BB also on 2M (2 MONTH) timeframe in NOVEMBER we may achieve a moon setup.
You may appreciate the triangle as well as 10.000$ area acting as possibile last-stand support.
You may appreciate the triangle as well as 10.000$ area acting as possibile last-stand support.
Comment:
(Short term)
In the meantime, watch that rising wedge,
In the meantime, watch that rising wedge,
Comment:
*IF* that wedge triggers a quick dip to 12.300-12.000$ may happen.
So don't underestimate that.
Just a word of caution.
So don't underestimate that.
Just a word of caution.
Comment:
Watch it, on the edge of the wedge.
Over-extended, high TD count (exceeding 13 ).
Over-extended, high TD count (exceeding 13 ).
Comment:
While price still keeps some momentum the risk of a flash crash is still looming and probably nearing (within 7-10 days eventually).
Unless BTC manages to further breakout 16.000$ on volume the following scenario may come into play:
So you'd better carefully evalutate your options.
Unless BTC manages to further breakout 16.000$ on volume the following scenario may come into play:
So you'd better carefully evalutate your options.
Comment:
Pullback ongoing.
Comment:
Well, it's moving fast.
Typical flashcrash.
Typical flashcrash.
Comment:
Already got to the 14300$ area target i forecasted above.
It took just a few hours instead of 3/4 days.
It may have some more margin.
It took just a few hours instead of 3/4 days.
It may have some more margin.
Still 5 days to monthly close ...