PRICE ACTION
It’s show time for the bulls.
The 5m chart has been filling higher lows for the last 5 days; and RSI is now moving to spending most of its time above the 50.0 line. There has been a step up above the trend line though; so true support may still be back around $8600. RSI is currently cooling from an overbought position – which isn’t great for trying to break a line as important as $9000...
The 1D has finally finished testing the 28D moving average; and – probably on the back of Binance FUD – has moved up strongly. But the problem here is that RSI looks terrible. The indicator is now showing a third lower high against what is shaping up to be a new local high on price action. BTCUSD is in a bearish divergence. Shorters are seeing this too; and there has been a cross over of shorts exceeding longs on Bitfinex. It’s a small variance – but it exists.
1W also remains overbought; with last weeks pullback being eclipsed by the current candle. To be clear, this is not a ‘buy me’ chart. We could see any number of bearish patterns form here – my money would be on a head & shoulders forming up.
The 4H chart gives us some of the most interesting data. We can see that $7500 is a strong support; and also, the recent movement has indicated the $8000 bears are largely dried up. What is left is a critical test of the $9000 for the bulls to really show that they are in charge. If this movement fails to break through – a strong setup for a double top is created. The $1500 gap between the neck and peak gives a short target back to $6000.
Shorts @ $9000 have a 50% profit incentive to push price lower. What do the bulls have left?
OPEN INTERESTS (BITFINEX)
Long: 2.03 Days
Short: 2.13 Days
RELATIVE STRENGTHS
ON BALANCE VOLUME
KEY PRICE AREAS
Resistance: 9000
Support: 8300, 8225 (28D MA), 7500
PREVIOUS ANALYSIS
It’s show time for the bulls.
The 5m chart has been filling higher lows for the last 5 days; and RSI is now moving to spending most of its time above the 50.0 line. There has been a step up above the trend line though; so true support may still be back around $8600. RSI is currently cooling from an overbought position – which isn’t great for trying to break a line as important as $9000...
The 1D has finally finished testing the 28D moving average; and – probably on the back of Binance FUD – has moved up strongly. But the problem here is that RSI looks terrible. The indicator is now showing a third lower high against what is shaping up to be a new local high on price action. BTCUSD is in a bearish divergence. Shorters are seeing this too; and there has been a cross over of shorts exceeding longs on Bitfinex. It’s a small variance – but it exists.
1W also remains overbought; with last weeks pullback being eclipsed by the current candle. To be clear, this is not a ‘buy me’ chart. We could see any number of bearish patterns form here – my money would be on a head & shoulders forming up.
The 4H chart gives us some of the most interesting data. We can see that $7500 is a strong support; and also, the recent movement has indicated the $8000 bears are largely dried up. What is left is a critical test of the $9000 for the bulls to really show that they are in charge. If this movement fails to break through – a strong setup for a double top is created. The $1500 gap between the neck and peak gives a short target back to $6000.
Shorts @ $9000 have a 50% profit incentive to push price lower. What do the bulls have left?
OPEN INTERESTS (BITFINEX)
Long: 2.03 Days
Short: 2.13 Days
RELATIVE STRENGTHS
- Micro (5m): Overbought
- Short Term (4h): Overbought
- Mid Term (1D): Bearish Divergence
- Macro (1W): Slightly overbought
ON BALANCE VOLUME
- Mid Term (1D): Flat
- Macro (1W): Rising
KEY PRICE AREAS
Resistance: 9000
Support: 8300, 8225 (28D MA), 7500
PREVIOUS ANALYSIS
Comment:
Big volume expansion of the 5m candles once $9000 was breached. Taking the indicators out from the 1D chart, we can see a clearly view of the rising channel. Bulls will want to get through the middle quickly.
