This could turn into a , but is less likely, because it dropped to much from the high. Idealy it drops towards 9400/9500 to make a higher low. If it could get above 11K from there on, than this extreme will be over and things will cool down. But don't expect this down trend is over, there is just to much fear in the market, to much uncertainty doubt!
In my last update of the previous chart i pointed out the low of the day through a decending , went long on 9500 and added at 9350, with almost 90% certainty it would make a spike upwards. This does not mean the down trend is over now, only for the short term. 13K is probably the turning point now between en scenario. Long term (days/weeks) i expect even lower prices, but things can change any minute ofcourse.
When BTC was still trading around between 13K and 14K , it did look like it would go up again towards the 15K , but it's obvious the market was much weak and to much fear. I did mention that the Bitcoin is game over. I don't think we will ever see a new ATH again.
The drop from the 20K was hurtfull for many people, but because the Alts were making insane profits, nobody really cared because most were people were probably still making big wins. But this is the second big dump (without making a new high) but this time many people lost even more with the Alt coins. I dont hear anybody talk about these facts. But this whole market is based and hope and expectations, maybe even 95% of it, so when trust and confidence gets damaged like happaned now, even the most insane people wont put there money in so easily.
Here you can see the bearish H&S and the bullish flag.
I know some people will be dissapointed, but i mentioned this a month ago, my followers and likes are staying behind, that's the main challange for me, for positing these charts and updates. The last few weeks i have not posted so much, i will try to make time to post some more, but if the followers do not increase, i will probably stop posting and updating.
Target around 10450
Market looks stronger than i though, was almost sure it would make another small wave down before going up. Alts are also going up now, probably gives confidence for everyone,
It is still lokking really strong, turning every small H&S into a bullish pattern. Selling volume is still higher than buying, so that's a weakness. Overall it's still tricky now
No more worries, everything is forgotten :). Looking realy strong, chances are getting bigger we will see the 12K very soon
final bullish triangle
I only expect a short term drop, not a new low (yet)
Target around 10.700/10.800
It is looking very weak now, but if you take the BTC charts of the other exchanges, it looks much better. Everything is possible ofcourse, but i dont think they will let it drop now.
I have added at 11.010 (all small positions, risky trades)
Bitfinex chart looks much weaker, with a clear resistance at the 11.800 level
I have added some more at 10.900, I have a wider stop around 10.750, cause it''s a small position!
It should above the 11.00 now, than it could make a small H&S with target 11.350
moved my stop to 11.100 for at least 100 points profit
Just as i predicted, it looked like a certain drop because of the weak signs i talked about earlier, but they just wont let it drop to much, there is to much at stake now!. People just have to think the drop of last week is just a correction!
looking much better, has made a solid bottom now
I did not see this drop comming, there is just no volume buying. And again, it's almost a certainty that it will make drops, when Bitfinex is about 400 point lower than Bitstamp.
I see some big orders in the bid book, but it does not work, 500 btc at 11.000, at 10.900 and at 10.800. They are being sold, i cant tell if it's wash trading or people really dumping this time.
There still just aint no real buying volume. I am having second thoughts now about it being able to reach the 12.500ish levels.
So this is what i thought would happen, that we would see a quick upwards correction, alle the buying greed of people thinking this is a lifetime opportunity discount, go towards the 12.500ish level, idealy max of 12.800, and from there on slowely turning down to crash later on
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Yeah we certainly need a wave up past 12k.. to feel in somewhat normal territory, but structure is still quite bearish at the moment. Maybe take another few days to get through to that.
Also it would be helpful if you can discuss a bit in a broader context, and where you see it moving from here in the medium term, than predicting small price movements. my 2 cents..