botje11
Long

Possible short term low set for Bitcoin, bullish flag and H&S

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Now there are 2 options (always is ofcourse LOL :)).
This H&S could turn into a bullish flag , but is less likely, because it dropped to much from the high. Idealy it drops towards 9400/9500 to make a higher low. If it could get above 11K from there on, than this extreme bearish trend will be over and things will cool down. But don't expect this down trend is over, there is just to much fear in the market, to much uncertainty doubt!
In my last update of the previous chart i pointed out the low of the day through a decending wedge , went long on 9500 and added at 9350, with almost 90% certainty it would make a spike upwards. This does not mean the down trend is over now, only for the short term. 13K             is probably the turning point now between bearish en bullish scenario. Long term (days/weeks) i expect even lower prices, but things can change any minute ofcourse.
When BTC             was still trading around between 13K             and 14K             , it did look like it would go up again towards the 15K             , but it's obvious the market was much te weak and to much fear. I did mention that the Bitcoin             is game over. I don't think we will ever see a new ATH             again.
The drop from the 20K was hurtfull for many people, but because the Alts were making insane profits, nobody really cared because most were people were probably still making big wins. But this is the second big dump (without making a new high) but this time many people lost even more with the Alt coins. I dont hear anybody talk about these facts. But this whole market is based and hope and expectations, maybe even 95% of it, so when trust and confidence gets damaged like happaned now, even the most insane people wont put there money in so easily.
Comment:
Here you can see the bearish H&S and the bullish flag.

I know some people will be dissapointed, but i mentioned this a month ago, my followers and likes are staying behind, that's the main challange for me, for positing these charts and updates. The last few weeks i have not posted so much, i will try to make time to post some more, but if the followers do not increase, i will probably stop posting and updating.
Comment: It was really flirting with that support trend line ater it broke out, it has finaly making a a move up now with some volume!
Comment: Looking short term bullish now, if it stays withing this pattern
Comment: There it is, now it could slow down a bit. everything above 10.200 is good
Comment: Iam out at 10550, waitin for another entry
Comment: Now i am shorting it at 10.730, stop at 10.900, short trade
Comment:
Comment: Went higher than i thought, stop now around 10780 for an almost free trade
Comment: Shorting it again at 10930, buying volume is not convincing, no conviction!! stop of about 200 points (small position!)
Comment:
Target around 10450
Comment: Stop lowered to just below 10900 (right shoulder)
Comment:
Market looks stronger than i though, was almost sure it would make another small wave down before going up. Alts are also going up now, probably gives confidence for everyone,
Comment:
It is still lokking really strong, turning every small H&S into a bullish pattern. Selling volume is still higher than buying, so that's a weakness. Overall it's still tricky now
Comment: It shold stay above the 10.600,
Comment:
No more worries, everything is forgotten :). Looking realy strong, chances are getting bigger we will see the 12K very soon
Comment: The target of the H&S from the bottem with the neckline at 10.400 has been reached! This could mean it could drop some from here, but it could just as well stay above the 11K. It should not drop below the 10.400 anymore
Comment: I think this is the final upwave for, probably reach around 11.800, in that are i will start to short it in 3 small orders, starting at 11.700
Comment:
final bullish triangle
I only expect a short term drop, not a new low (yet)
Comment: I have the first ones in at 11650, seems to be weakening, maybe it wont even complete the triangle
Comment: Crap, i really thought it would make a last spike up to 11.800, now i only got a third of my position. I will close it around 11.200/11.300
Comment: I will close around 11.050, stop at 11.320 now
Comment:
Target around 10.700/10.800
Comment: Flag in the making, should stay below the 11.250 now!
Comment: Target reached
Comment: Last update for now, likes followers and views are staying behind to much!
Comment: I am long now at 11000
Comment: Bitfinex is doing the same shit it did a few weeks ago, pulling them all down. My guess is, if it is spoofy or some other whales, it's quite obvious some are really dumping at Bitfinex!That's why i am almost convinced we will make another drop to the 9K low or even much lower. So it was an very easy short again from the highs today, because it was just exactley the same as a few days ago. I still think we need to have another wave up again, to get the BTC higher but even more important, get the Alts higher, so everybody sees the big %gains again so they will put there money into the market again and the big guys can start selling again.

It is looking very weak now, but if you take the BTC charts of the other exchanges, it looks much better. Everything is possible ofcourse, but i dont think they will let it drop now.
I have added at 11.010 (all small positions, risky trades)
Comment: Bitstamp chart, looks like a bullish flag (consolidation).

Bitfinex chart looks much weaker, with a clear resistance at the 11.800 level

I have added some more at 10.900, I have a wider stop around 10.750, cause it''s a small position!
Comment:
It should above the 11.00 now, than it could make a small H&S with target 11.350
Comment: I have moved my stop to 10950 to minimize the loss, this H&S could fail, if so we will see a drop towards 10.600/10.700
Comment: No real buying volume,
moved my stop to 11.100 for at least 100 points profit
Comment: As i mentioned before, real buying volume was missing, so the small H&S did nor reach it's target, sign of weakness! So chances are bigger we will drop some more now, i wont short it at this level, because i still believe they wont let it drop, i have been surpsised to many times, to only look at the TA, i always keep in mind how these manipulative markets work!
Comment:
Just as i predicted, it looked like a certain drop because of the weak signs i talked about earlier, but they just wont let it drop to much, there is to much at stake now!. People just have to think the drop of last week is just a correction!
Comment:
looking much better, has made a solid bottom now
Comment: i am long now at 10850, small position!
Comment: i am out at 10800, thanks to spoofy
Comment: Stop just below the previous low,

I did not see this drop comming, there is just no volume buying. And again, it's almost a certainty that it will make drops, when Bitfinex is about 400 point lower than Bitstamp.

I see some big orders in the bid book, but it does not work, 500 btc at 11.000, at 10.900 and at 10.800. They are being sold, i cant tell if it's wash trading or people really dumping this time.
There still just aint no real buying volume. I am having second thoughts now about it being able to reach the 12.500ish levels.
Comment:
So this is what i thought would happen, that we would see a quick upwards correction, alle the buying greed of people thinking this is a lifetime opportunity discount, go towards the 12.500ish level, idealy max of 12.800, and from there on slowely turning down to crash later on
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waiting for you to do some good TA :D
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botje11 darepit
@darepit, I have posted a new trading idea
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I have been waiting for your updates actually. Normally you'd talk about a rising wedge being formed here but didn't hear from ya. Yeah your Bitfinex charts look a bit different from the one on Bittrex.

Yeah we certainly need a wave up past 12k.. to feel in somewhat normal territory, but structure is still quite bearish at the moment. Maybe take another few days to get through to that.
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botje11 Aamir66
@Aamir66, I was busy trading, and the followers/likes have to increase for me to keep updating so much
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darepit botje11
@botje11, We'll increase it for ya , keeo uo the good work , thanks
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botje11 darepit
@darepit, Haha thanks :)
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Aamir66 botje11
@botje11, well market is a bit dull and there is very little price movements, so don't expect too many cheery people on here for now. Surely you ll see a change in attitude when markets pick up.

Also it would be helpful if you can discuss a bit in a broader context, and where you see it moving from here in the medium term, than predicting small price movements. my 2 cents..
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botje11 Aamir66
@Aamir66, This is typical sideways movements, confusing both sides. I have mentioned my 'long term' view a few times. You should read my updates for that info :)
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Any updates for today big botje?
Reply
@Lyptus, hahaha I will post some soon :)
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