Bitfinex Accused of Fraud & The Market Follows My Analysis!
Welcome friends, to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Let's dive right in to what just happened today. First and foremost, I want to give this warning. Don't let anyone fool you with the suggestion that today's selloff was due to futures expiration. Futures expiration has been in effect all day, and the selloff triggered immediately after the Bitfinex news was released.
To those who don't know, Bitfinex, one of the world's largest crypto exchanges, has been accused of fraud by the New York Attorney General's office. They're alleging that "Bitfinex lost $850 million and subsequently used funds from affiliated stablecoin operator Tether to secretly cover the shortfall." So, what the NYAG office is alleging, is that Bitfinex is essentially involved in a pyramid scheme behind the curtains. That is a POWERFUL allegation that is sure to put the breaks on the market, at least until there is a bit more clarity on the issue and whether or not investor funds are at risk with Bitfinex or potentially on other exchanges. As I commented on Twitter, I am of the opinion that this is a function of an unregulated financial market. This is WHY we need regulation. Assuming the allegations are true, we need to have measures in place to ensure that our investments are safe. How can we be comfortable when our hard earned money is (potentially) in the hands of a company like Bitfinex, that is engaging in illegal accounting practices? It's just not a good sign, and it's a black eye for the crytpto space right now. We really need to find out more about the situation, and learn what is really going on at Bitfinex.
Aside from that, I'm always amazed at how news will come out, that triggers the market to move in a way that fulfills my previous analyses. I mean, you can't make this stuff up, and it happens over and over again. It just goes to show that the market KNOWS things ahead of time. For example, I've seen huge head and shoulders patterns developing, and right when it's about to break to the downside, a critical piece of news hits the market and causes the move to explode. That's a function of big money and insider trading. More often, I believe that the market moves in a purely technical way, but every now and then I see the setup before the news, and today was one of those days.
From a technical standpoint, today's move shows that price is continuing to move as expected. If you recall from the last analysis, I told you that we would likely fail at the weekly 50 MA (in black,) because the indicators were showing exhaustion, and we were rejected at the first test of it in 2015. I also told you that "we have what looks like half of a head and shoulders pattern right now, with a possible left shoulder, leading in to what could be the head." Today's move down has defined the head almost exactly how my arrow on the previous chart projected. Now, we have to see how price will develop from here. On the four hour chart, price is still in an uptrend channel. However, I think the damage has likely been done, and that the top is in for this move. I know that we have a lot of support below us, such as the 50 and 200 MAs, the 4700 and 4200 levels etc, but I believe that the real prize could be much lower around the 4100 area, which is the 61.8% retrace from the bottom to this recent top. Personally, I'm looking for Bitcoin to complete a head and shoulders pattern here, and then head toward the downside target. Understand that the arrows on my chart are a rough example of where price is projected to go. Obviously, if we trend lower, we could see a bounce on the golden cross area, or a number of other areas for that matter. Regardless, I think there is a high probability that Bitcoin could retest the 4100 level. With that said, if Bitcoin takes the most unlikely course, and closes above the black trendline, then we could see a potential run for 6000. Until then, I don't see that as a possibility right now. I think we are far more likely to test the 4100 level, before rallying into the major overhead resistance around 6000.
Good luck trading everyone!
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
To those who don't know, Bitfinex, one of the world's largest crypto exchanges, has been accused of fraud by the New York Attorney General's office. They're alleging that "Bitfinex lost $850 million and subsequently used funds from affiliated stablecoin operator Tether to secretly cover the shortfall." So, what the NYAG office is alleging, is that Bitfinex is essentially involved in a pyramid scheme behind the curtains. That is a POWERFUL allegation that is sure to put the breaks on the market, at least until there is a bit more clarity on the issue and whether or not investor funds are at risk with Bitfinex or potentially on other exchanges. As I commented on Twitter, I am of the opinion that this is a function of an unregulated financial market. This is WHY we need regulation. Assuming the allegations are true, we need to have measures in place to ensure that our investments are safe. How can we be comfortable when our hard earned money is (potentially) in the hands of a company like Bitfinex, that is engaging in illegal accounting practices? It's just not a good sign, and it's a black eye for the crytpto space right now. We really need to find out more about the situation, and learn what is really going on at Bitfinex.
Aside from that, I'm always amazed at how news will come out, that triggers the market to move in a way that fulfills my previous analyses. I mean, you can't make this stuff up, and it happens over and over again. It just goes to show that the market KNOWS things ahead of time. For example, I've seen huge head and shoulders patterns developing, and right when it's about to break to the downside, a critical piece of news hits the market and causes the move to explode. That's a function of big money and insider trading. More often, I believe that the market moves in a purely technical way, but every now and then I see the setup before the news, and today was one of those days.
From a technical standpoint, today's move shows that price is continuing to move as expected. If you recall from the last analysis, I told you that we would likely fail at the weekly 50 MA (in black,) because the indicators were showing exhaustion, and we were rejected at the first test of it in 2015. I also told you that "we have what looks like half of a head and shoulders pattern right now, with a possible left shoulder, leading in to what could be the head." Today's move down has defined the head almost exactly how my arrow on the previous chart projected. Now, we have to see how price will develop from here. On the four hour chart, price is still in an uptrend channel. However, I think the damage has likely been done, and that the top is in for this move. I know that we have a lot of support below us, such as the 50 and 200 MAs, the 4700 and 4200 levels etc, but I believe that the real prize could be much lower around the 4100 area, which is the 61.8% retrace from the bottom to this recent top. Personally, I'm looking for Bitcoin to complete a head and shoulders pattern here, and then head toward the downside target. Understand that the arrows on my chart are a rough example of where price is projected to go. Obviously, if we trend lower, we could see a bounce on the golden cross area, or a number of other areas for that matter. Regardless, I think there is a high probability that Bitcoin could retest the 4100 level. With that said, if Bitcoin takes the most unlikely course, and closes above the black trendline, then we could see a potential run for 6000. Until then, I don't see that as a possibility right now. I think we are far more likely to test the 4100 level, before rallying into the major overhead resistance around 6000.
Good luck trading everyone!
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
Comment:
I forgot to line my MACD up. It has been printing a bearish divergence...
Comment:
To everyone who has opposes regulation...
I love the free market, and I am a capitalist to the core, although I oppose the current fiat monetary system. I know that regulation is an essential part of ALL financial markets. You can oppose regulation if you like, but look at what has happened in this UNREGULATED market. We've had Mt Gox, this Bitfinex scandal, QuadrigaCX, and many other issues involving deception in the exchanges. Why wouldn't you want them to be regulated? It has absolutely ZERO impact on the core technology of Bitcoin, and it only helps to secure your investments. Whether you like it or not, regulation is coming, and as soon as we have a well regulated arena for big money to play in, it will come. Calling for no regulation is like calling for everyone to live without insurance. It's not safe or smart. I really don't understand the logic behind the arguments for no regulation. I chalk it up to mostly to ideological thinking.
I love the free market, and I am a capitalist to the core, although I oppose the current fiat monetary system. I know that regulation is an essential part of ALL financial markets. You can oppose regulation if you like, but look at what has happened in this UNREGULATED market. We've had Mt Gox, this Bitfinex scandal, QuadrigaCX, and many other issues involving deception in the exchanges. Why wouldn't you want them to be regulated? It has absolutely ZERO impact on the core technology of Bitcoin, and it only helps to secure your investments. Whether you like it or not, regulation is coming, and as soon as we have a well regulated arena for big money to play in, it will come. Calling for no regulation is like calling for everyone to live without insurance. It's not safe or smart. I really don't understand the logic behind the arguments for no regulation. I chalk it up to mostly to ideological thinking.
Comment:
Furthermore, isn't it a red flag that everyone always advises you to "keep your tokens off of the exchanges?" Why should I have to do that? Obviously, I do keep my tokens in cold storage, but I shouldn't have to. That's a commonly known hazard in crypto, and it is a product of an unregulated financial market.