We've seen the break out from the falling wedge and we are currently on 8.9k after the recent rally to 9040 and now I'm starting to see an ascending wedge telling me that we are probably going to see a correction before another wave up. I expect BTC to hit somewhere around 9250 (0.23 retracement from bearish structure) before that correction comes, maybe after a failled attempt of rally through it and than a break below 8.9k, possibly leading to 8.3k, target of the ascending wedge and where we have our first strong support... But if the next rally attempt doesn't come soon we may start falling from this level already, as 8948 (0.382 retracement from minor bearish structure) seem to be holding strong resistance.
My plan here is to watch carefully the two points where I think we have most possibilities for a reversal (9.2k and 8.3k) and manage my position (long from 8.2 and 8.5) according to those reversals. If we break the ascending wedge at any point (down) I plan to sell most of my position and wait for either a reversal at 8.3k or a break of 9.2k (in case we turn around below the wedge). If we don't find support at 8.3k or break through I think the most likely is a fall below 8k (7.6k and 7.2k). The falling wedge target is still in play and set to 10.7k, a little above the log downtrend channel that we are fighting since december. I have no idea if this time we will have enough strenght to break thorugh it, specially right now, but it's not impossible to break it next week (which would likely lead us to a longer term bullish scenario) and actually not that hard to hit somewhere around it before we start falling again, if we start falling again. So I'll be watching carefully for a break out or reversal at this level too.
Of course a break above the ascending wedge (9.2k right now, 9.4-9.5k next days) would change the whole figure.
My plan here is to watch carefully the two points where I think we have most possibilities for a reversal (9.2k and 8.3k) and manage my position (long from 8.2 and 8.5) according to those reversals. If we break the ascending wedge at any point (down) I plan to sell most of my position and wait for either a reversal at 8.3k or a break of 9.2k (in case we turn around below the wedge). If we don't find support at 8.3k or break through I think the most likely is a fall below 8k (7.6k and 7.2k). The falling wedge target is still in play and set to 10.7k, a little above the log downtrend channel that we are fighting since december. I have no idea if this time we will have enough strenght to break thorugh it, specially right now, but it's not impossible to break it next week (which would likely lead us to a longer term bullish scenario) and actually not that hard to hit somewhere around it before we start falling again, if we start falling again. So I'll be watching carefully for a break out or reversal at this level too.
Of course a break above the ascending wedge (9.2k right now, 9.4-9.5k next days) would change the whole figure.
Comment:
After hiting 9150 on an exausted rally we started falling hard. 8920 right now, after a little bounce from the fib level at 8950. Already broke ascending wedge line. Still have to confirm but I'm now waiting for a correction with reversal or a break of 9.4k before going long again.
Comment:
dip to around 8750 and now at 8872. Now I see a bear flag, so I believe we will indeed go deeper (8.5k than 8.3k?)
Comment:
8400, got into the reversal zone I draw but I don't think it looks strong enough to reverse right now... maybe the buyers are waiting for 8300... anyway, I'll be watching for now
Trade active:
To be honest I did not trust my call. Thought we would break 8.3k but seems like we reversed there. I'm waiting for a break above the channel or a dip to start my longs.