milobowman
Long

Bitcoin: the most probable scenario 2018-2022, boring but likely

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
This is assuming the market psychology is the same now as it was after the 2014 bubble/crash. If the market cycles in bitcoin work like this - bubbles of speculative exuberance followed by crashes and long reversals - then this is what we'll see going forward. And, in all probability, this is the single most likely scenario. It won't be exact but it is the most likely at this point. I saw someone claim that bitcoin has had 9 bubbles in total and i think that's just the way this market works! It's prone to bubbles! So, in all likelihood, this is what we'll see going forward. I've just drawn roughly what happened between 2014-2018 onto the end of where we are now, 2018-2022

There's plenty of space for bitcoin to grow: ETFs, institutional involvement, infrastructure developments, regulation hurdles, and when all of this affects the price, the next wave of retail investors see it going up, get FOMO, and then it gets out of hand and that could easily be the next bubble.

It took 3 years from the end of the 2014 bear market to get to the bubble we saw in december 2017. So, i'd advise against predicting 50k by the end of the year. I'd love it, but in all likelihood, it will probably be another 3 years until we see the next top, and that will probably be 250-300k in late 2021/early 2022. Sorry to be slow and boring, i know we all want 20k in the next 2 months but let's be honest, we have to consider the most likely scenarios here and having a huge upwards spike now would be strange. Possible, but not the most likely scenario.

I'd also advice AGAINST thinking that the market has bottomed already. It's possible, but that would be a comparatively short bear market. In 2014, it lasted for about a year before it hit the bottom. That means we could well see one more move down to 5k (or a bit less) in around october. It could be over now, and it could be just a very short bear market, but again, that's not the most likely scenario. So be careful not to get too cocky too soon!

In short; it's probably best to ignore those that say we're retesting 20k in the next few months. Unfortunately it's likely to be slow and boring for the next year. And the year after that. But if you take your time there's still plenty of opportunity ahead. It's possible that the market has sped up and we've bottomed already and we'll see the next peak earlier, but that will still be at least 2 years away.

Dull and uneventful for the next year, but that's how markets work.
Don't believe this unless you want to miss out on a lot of money.
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tameablecobra tameablecobra
@tameablecobra, This ignores all the new knowledge of BTC. Things will happen much faster now. Likely, run-ups and pullbacks.
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You s stole my idea...but you worded it it quite better than I.
Well done.

Liked what you had to say. I agree.
And this endorsement comes form the guy who came into
crypto at 18K with the plan of making big money.
...you can laugh now.
Cheers !
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With all due respect, this isn’t 2014. It’s 2018 and bitcoin has seen a price that blew anyone’s mind who watches markets. Just look at how much infrastructure, attention and “legit” attention crypto now receives. It’s nothing even remotely compared to 2014. You have some of the best tech minds in the biz moving to crypto, top financial execs moving out of traditional finance into crypto, south east Asia going insane over crypto, and huge moves stateside with companies such as Goldman, Morgan Stanley, and even Blackrock. Regulatory messages thus far have been positive. Other than people wanting to stick to fractals as if they are the holy grail it makes ZERO sense in a FA basis why 2018 Crypto would do such a thing. My confirmation bias doesn’t want it to do that but even my bearish side says that just doesn’t make sense.
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milobowman xxxSALTHEART
@xxxSALTHEART, Completely agree, but your point doesn't make sense. It's way higher than it was in 2014. It's at 8k now, the bottom of 2014 was like 200. All that attention is priced in, hence the price being 8k not 200!!! I'm not implying it's the same as 2014, i'm implying the movement is the same as 2014.

"It’s 2018 and bitcoin has seen a price that blew anyone’s mind who watches markets". Dude, i was there in 2014. It blew everyone's minds back then. It was crazy, everyone was talking about it, people were going mental over it. But, less people. That's why the price was lower. Organisations were being built around bitcoin then, there were new startups and exchanges coming in and that was CRAZY news. Now, it's the EXACT SAME THING ON A BIGGER SCALE. The bigger scale is why the price is at 8k not 200!

It's not the same as 2014, it's way bigger, and that's why the price is way bigger now too. That doesn't affect the way the price CHANGES.

The next bubble won't be a few news stations covering it as an end-of-show side piece like it was in november/december, it will be MASSIVE. It will be EVERYWHERE. And it will have to be, because it will have to justify a price of 250k. As the price gets higher, the required attention must get higher too, that's why this is the same as 2014 but on a bigger scale, and the price action is the same as 2014 but with bigger numbers.
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xxxSALTHEART milobowman
@milobowman, ok, I hear you and btw apologies if I came off as hostile haha. You’re saying the price is baked in. I just don’t see it. Yes, compared to 14’ sure, but reality is, 70% of the money in crypto is from Asia...2% of Americans currently own crypto, western money isn’t remotely in it yet.....there’s a 1:20 or 1
;25 dollar to market cap ratio. 250b crypto market cap is really only about 25 billion actual dollars...(See @fundstrat Thomas Lee for more on that) ...ETF’s WILL get approved sometime between Aug 17th to Feb of 2019...those ETF’s have to OWN bitcoin ...supply is limited...once one is approved it will cascade...once one major player goes in, others will follow....we are on cusp. There’s huge underswell of momentum behind all this...I just don’t see as practical or reasonable at all that we need to play out some 2014 fractal scenario just because. If anything I see 3-5 huge bull runs over next 6 years with a lot of rinse/repeat behavior. Just my 2 cents.
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milobowman xxxSALTHEART
@xxxSALTHEART, I'm with you brother, it's going up. It's definitely at a good price right now for all of these things, it's below where it should be. But at the equivalent point in 2014 it was the same, equally undervalued. In fact, paypal got involved in sept 2014, and microsoft accepted bitcoin as a payment in december 2014. That was absolutely HUGE, relatively speaking, for a $200 coin. People couldn't believe some of the biggest corporations in the world recognized bitcoin! They were saying the same thing, once one major player goes in, others will follow. And they did, but it takes time! I think in 2015, 100,000 places on the internet accepted bitcoin as payment. There were bitcoin hedge funds like pantera capital, so much talks of venture capital involvement. Price still didn't go above 400 before 2016! The reason, i think, is psychology. If you ask an average joe whether they want to buy bitcoin right now they'd take one look at that chart and say no; people only want to buy things that are ALREADY going up! People buy on FOMO and greed, not logic and reason and sound investment decisions. And that's what's stopping new people coming in and buying bitcoin. Psychology is the same no matter the situation, that's what this prediction is based on.
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xxxSALTHEART milobowman
@milobowman, good stuff and you’re right about those details. I think the current activity is significantly more primed to actually show movement but I see what you’re saying and learned something from that. Have some books on crowd psychology etc I need to dig into, and of course on trading In general I’m still a total noob...9-10 months, but thanks for the dialogue and perspective. Great reminder that my reality isn’t the same as everyone else’s. Haha. Thx again
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milobowman xxxSALTHEART
@xxxSALTHEART, Ah realities are always different haha. I enjoyed hearing your perspective, it's nice to hear confirmation of how good things are looking for cryptos! all the best.
+1 Reply
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