BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Since everyone wants to see BTC -3.97% on the rise, and sometime soon as well, I thought I´d publish my idea here. Mainly because I am interested in how right or wrong I might be and where I would end up sticking to this.

BTCs 1.88% projected price is way inflated, and I believe we are not only in a correction, we also are still way too high in value. If I was to judge on all those sentiments and strategies I have read over the past 2 weeks, then I believe it is highly likely that we bottom between 5000 and 6000. Why? Personally I don´t think we will see fantastic growth over next few month, more a consolidation to the upper side into what would call "realistic value" of BTC -3.97% . Second I think there is now too much distrust; a lot of people surely got burned during the last 2 months, stepping too late into the game.

So I don´t think there will be a significant amount of trade volume to see the spikes we had last year. If Moore´s Law can successfully applied to BTC -3.97% in terms of value evolution over time, then we might see it around 8000 at the end of May, as long as it doesn´t get blown up as it was before Xmas -0.59% 2017. Furthermore, I don´t believe there will be fast rise as some would like to see; I don´t think it is possible to see it inflate to 10000 or 15000 until September.

I would appreciate any input from experienced traders. Helpful comments invited!
Trade active: We are 4 weeks into June, and I am updating my idea.

BTC did not move as fast down as I expected it to in February, but we are now below the channel I drew. This channel was based on the assumption, that BTC would follow Moore´s Law - for that to come true it should not be above 8000 USD by May 30, which it wasnt.

What we are probably now seeing is a drop below the axis, which happened the years before as well, as BTC isn´t linear nor following the ideal path of Moore´s Law.

If BTC heads up into the drawn channel and extends above, then I suspect the chance of a longterm bullish outlook might be good.
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