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Psychology of Tilt: Losing Tilt
Reaction 1. The desire to recoup with increased risk
It's difficult to find a market player, who has never had a strong desire to recoup and didn't go on rash actions because of this.
When we using the term "tilt" most often we mean precisely this reaction. We can say, that it's the main variety of tilt. And that was given the greatest attention in scientific research, including the desire to recoup is the basis of pathological gambling.
Among the factors contributing to the emergence of the desire to recoup can be identified:
📌- Dispersion of the game
📌- Bet size
📌- game speed
📌- Frequency "near misses"
The last factor needs clarification. “Near Missing” (near misses) is the outcome of a bet in which the player was defeated, but was close to winning.
“Near misses” are less pleasant for a person, than losing without a chance of winning, but at the same time cause a desire to continue the game.
1. Explanation through the theory of perspectives
According to this theory, the function of the subjective value of wins and losses has a specific form, and after losing a person falls into that area of the function, which is characterized by a desire for risk. This is easier to show on the chart.
Suppose, after losing, the player gets to point A.
Due to the features of the left side of the function, any further loss (further movement to the left side) will have less subjective significance for it than a gain (reverse movement to the right side) of the same size. And since potential gains become more significant than potential losses, the desire for risk increases.
This function of subjective value is an empirically established pattern.
Features of the perception of losses and wins are also characteristic of a person's perception of other phenomena.
In other words, a person’s perception of gains and losses in the manner described by them is simply a property of the human psyche. Thus, the desire for risk after losses caused by such a perception is also simply a certain basic characteristic of a person.
2. Explanation through a player error.
Player error is a common misconception in understanding random events. A person who is prone to this error believes that the more often a random event occurred in the past, the less likely it will happen in the future and vice versa. This mistake is based on the belief that random manism should not generate extended series of the same type.
Due to this mistake, the player after a series of failures will consider that the probability of his future wins has increased and as a result will continue the game with special persistence.
It is difficult to argue that the player’s mistake contributes to the desire to recoup with an increased risk.
3. Explanation through the threat of "I".
The emerging threat of "I" causes various protective reactions. One of these defensive reactions is the desire to recoup with increased risk: quickly returning the lost money, the player will retain the idea of himself as a fairly strong plus player.
It is also worth considering that the threat of “I” is a well-known trigger of anger. And anger mobilizes a person’s energy, instills in him a feeling of confidence and strength, and prepares for an attack.
Summing up the consideration of various approaches to explaining the desire to recoup with an increased risk, it is worth noting that these approaches are not mutually exclusive. They rather complement each other. In other words, most people may indeed have some basic tendency to increase risk after losing, which is reinforced by the player’s mistake and perceiving the loss as a threat to “I”.
Reaction 2. A sharp risk reduction
Not all players are characterized by an increase in risk after a significant loss. Having suffered serious losses, some traders can continue trading, but use only the most reliable strategies,
Speaking about the desire to recoup, they almost always assume that this desire is associated with increased risk. However, it is important to understand that lowering the risk does not necessarily mean a complete rejection of attempts to recoup.
A reason for avoiding risk after a defeat may be a hot hand fallacy error. A “hot hand” error is another misconception in understanding random events. The essence of the error lies in the fact that after observing a long series of events of the same type, people cease to believe in random outcomes and predict that a series of events of the same type will continue.
As a result of this mistake, a player after a series of defeats may begin to think that under the circumstances, his chances of winning are objectively underestimated (“they started a twist against me”) and make a logical decision about the need to reduce the risk.
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