First of all, little history about my current position in BTC. I had position in BTC till it fell down to 10k, and bought back at second dip at 6k range. Despite that I though that it couldn't break trough resistance level from early January (gray line) and sold my BTC at 8k. After it broke trough 8k, I was waiting to see if it could break 10k resistance and it couldn't, so I'm still waiting for good buy opportunity and in search of it I came with couple toughs, which I wanted to share with you.
If we look at 2014 year, we had first and biggest price breakdwon. Based on that, we can see three retracement levels in 2014: 1) 64%; 2) 72% and final 80%+ levels. Because of increased awareness and interest from institutional investors, I think we wouldn't reach third level of retracement, so we will focus on first two.
BTC has already tested (twice) first retracement level, despite bouncing from it it couldn't break trough 10k resistance level. So what's next:
1) 200 day EMA and 50 day EMA "death cross" - if we would stay in low 8k;
2) MACD bearish crossover - in action;
3) Upcoming G20 summit about crypto regulation - uncertainty and fair of summit, will show up at the end of Jun;
4) Seasonal, summer price breakdown - usually in July/August;
It seems that all of this events happening in same-short period of time and adding fact, that we still have to break trough such a psychological barrier like 10k, for me price breakdown isn't inevitable.
So for me personally, next BUY ZONE is between 5000 - 5'500, which is about second wave of retracement from 2014. But:
If BTC reaches this level, before G20 Summit, I would buy some portion of it and some after summit.
If BTC doesn't reaches this level before and during summit week, I would buy at what level BTC would be and hold till December.
If we look at 2014 year, we had first and biggest price breakdwon. Based on that, we can see three retracement levels in 2014: 1) 64%; 2) 72% and final 80%+ levels. Because of increased awareness and interest from institutional investors, I think we wouldn't reach third level of retracement, so we will focus on first two.
BTC has already tested (twice) first retracement level, despite bouncing from it it couldn't break trough 10k resistance level. So what's next:
1) 200 day EMA and 50 day EMA "death cross" - if we would stay in low 8k;
2) MACD bearish crossover - in action;
3) Upcoming G20 summit about crypto regulation - uncertainty and fair of summit, will show up at the end of Jun;
4) Seasonal, summer price breakdown - usually in July/August;
It seems that all of this events happening in same-short period of time and adding fact, that we still have to break trough such a psychological barrier like 10k, for me price breakdown isn't inevitable.
So for me personally, next BUY ZONE is between 5000 - 5'500, which is about second wave of retracement from 2014. But:
If BTC reaches this level, before G20 Summit, I would buy some portion of it and some after summit.
If BTC doesn't reaches this level before and during summit week, I would buy at what level BTC would be and hold till December.