4xForecaster

#Bitfinex Acts As Forecast; Still Intent On 260.00 #bitcoin $BTC

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
As forecast last week, price is set into motion, jumping towards probability levels:

1 - High = 260.00

2 - Moderate = 270.50

and

3 - Low = 285.22


Background geometry acting as the principal engine. The larger picture remains under bears control (see prior analysis here:
Predictive/Forecasting Model Eyes 405/575; So Do Market-Geos.
)


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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@4xForecaster

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David Alcindor
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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
21 APR 2015 - Update:

Hello TV'ers,

At the request of several traders, you may have noted that as of today (21 APR 2015), I have started to assign a thread for each Forex pair, so that it facilitates following the analyses. Therefore, from here on, I will make sure to develop a chart for each of the Forex pair, although I will also start posting individual index, stock, and commodities.

If there is a particular chart you'd like to share, please, do not just post the link. Simply use the icon in the right upper corner of the writing window, and cut/paste its URL. If there is a chart you'd like to bring up from another thread, simply right click on it, chose "Copy Link Location", then within that icon in the writing window, paste it, then click "Insert" ... It will show up as the URL address (i.e.: https://www.tradingview.com/xyz123 ... ) framed by  within your text, but it'll show up as an image once "Post Comment" is clicked. If only the URL is posted without a visible chart, I am not likely to open it, nor would others, since we all go through so many of these charts in any given day. Make it easy for the sake of those who would enjoy your posting, comments and astute charting.

One last thing: If at all possible, try to make your chart as simply looking as possible. There is no need to mention your directional opinion, your feelings about a direction, or what you believe price should do, especially when supported by a myriads of complex and colorful indicators. Charting should never have to reveal the tools you used to arrive at an analysis. It should simply point to the bare essentials, stating a cause/effect, a before/after, or a single, simple point of discussion. I strive to deliver my charts to you in as simple a presentation as possible. The complexity of the predictive model, the technical tools, and other abstract elements are usually removed out of sight, not so much to keep it clean, but to have less "stuff" between you and me, so as to appear that I am here with you, and intentionally sharing something in the clearest and closest fashion as can be delivered.

My goal is nothing short than to introduce you to a different approach, look and activity surrounding charting, technical analysis and predictive analysis. But I want it to be of benefits to the largest number of other readers, students of the market as we all are, daily and incessantly.

I very much appreciate your following thus far, and look forward to more challenging queries.

Best,


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
This is how I can see the fibs of these successive movements aiming for similar targets
snapshot
Back on Feb 26 (start of last rally) we saw RSI, MACD in the exact same positions.
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO ronfkingswanson
2 years ago
@ronfkingswanson - Yes. Most definitely. A Fib cluster would add relevance to any level for sure.

David
+2 Reply
22 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$BTCUSD speaks Bullish breaking > 2-4 Resist.; Forecast in force, eyeing 260.00:

snapshot


$BTC #bitfinex #bitcoin #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
So what we should be looking for here is a CLOSE below the 1-3 line to change the bullish sentiment. If this candle closes above the 1-3 line we are still on target for point 4. Am I on the right track?
snapshot
Reply
manipuflated Chartistry
2 years ago
Holding out 100% for 260 was a mistake on my part. Got back in 230's. Not sure what to do now...I don't think 1089 CNY could come that fast, could it?
Reply
sprks55 Chartistry
2 years ago
that would be quite something to get a close >1-3 ... that would some extreme price moves...
Reply
Chartistry PRO sprks55
2 years ago
That price action was pretty emphatic. I think i found the answer to my question
Reply
BTC-e decided to go it alone and spike all the way to $269. I call that a nice target hit ;-)
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO ronfkingswanson
2 years ago
@ronfkingswanson - Nice.

Thank you.

David
Reply
noto1235 4xForecaster
2 years ago
excellent thanks David ...
+1 Reply
Macainian
2 years ago
Hey David, I was just wondering if there was any way to tell, or something that might suggest, whether or not we will hit the moderate or low probability targets.

I suppose what I really mean is, has there been a change in the probabilities since the original forecast, such that the moderate is now a high and the low is now a moderate, and if so what could have caused this? If not, what could cause this change in prediction?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Macainian
2 years ago
Hello Macainian,

There has not been a change in any of the forecasts so far.


David
Reply
Macainian 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thanks for the response David.

I should have stated it more clearly. Sorry long day of work :)

I meant to say what kinds of things could cause a change to the prediction and how do you spot them?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Macainian
2 years ago
@Macainian - I see. The geometries I use are background patterns that provide a correlation to the Predictive/Forecasting Model. The Model itself tells me what is the probable direction, strength, as well as extent of price attainment (target), and whether the target would impose a retracement (numerical target: TG-1, TG-2, ..., etc.) or a reversal (nominal target: TG-Hi/Lo and TG-Hix/Lox).

Right now, there is nothing about these $BTC that will change the probability of attaining the levels defined, and the overall direction remains bearish. Only when the Model indicates otherwise that I will have something to contradict the current analysis. Basically, as designed, the Model is based on high-probability conditions, and until there is discrepancy or a firm change, there is no change.


David
+3 Reply
Macainian 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Oh ok, I understand. Thanks as always David.
+1 Reply
G_Man 4xForecaster
2 years ago
any thoughts on the shape of the current movement? do you think we'll test the lows again before approaching your high probability targets?

thanks
Reply
G_Man 4xForecaster
2 years ago
just having a play with ideas and wondered if a pattern like this would hold any siginificance?

snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO G_Man
2 years ago
Hello @Gary_The_Astronaut - If the point of origin to the right were Point-1, and the point that is not seen up above were Point-2, and your current "1" were Point-3, thena geo might develop with a Point-4 that has room to grow or could fold from here, and a Poin-5 along that speculative 1-3 Line. This also mean that a 5-prime would occur significantly the 1-3 Line at a depth defined by the angle of the speculative 2-4 Line originating off of Point-3 (your "1" in the chart which you posted).

David
+2 Reply
08 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$BTCUSD remains open to probability levels as forecast. Longer-term remains bearish:

snapshot


$BTC #bitcoin #bitfinex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
G_Man 4xForecaster
2 years ago
any comments? not sure how to number multiple shapes, or if they are at the right angles :)

snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO G_Man
2 years ago
Hello @Gary_The_Astronaut, simply ask your self one question:

Are both lines sloping up or down? If not, then you are not dealing with the geo.

In your chart, the large dashed lines are in opposite slopes.

Also, I would recommend to stick with only one geo, rather than attempting to superimpose and then making some speculative connections with the two. Whether it occurs or not is not the point at this level. What matters is whether your mind's eyes can start seeing the nascent geo before your your own eyes can. By layering and complicating the task of passive assimilation, you may possibly delay or incorrectly assimilate the whole movement. The last thing you need is unlearn, which is more difficult that the simple task of learning 2 lines ... which all that geo is.

David Alcindor


David
Reply
G_Man 4xForecaster
2 years ago
yes I see from your previous reply in the AU thread what my mistakes are, thanks
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO G_Man
2 years ago
Great.

David
Reply
17 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$BTCUSD hit target defined on 21 APR 2015; Bulls remain in charge:

snapshot


$BTC #bitcoin #bitfinex $USD #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
29 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$BTCUSD hit, now retests high-prob target;Eyes 270.50; Mulls 285.22:

snapshot


$BTC $USD #bitfinex bitcoin #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
02 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$BTCUSD / #bitfinex under Geo's Off-Set Rule, sparing lower prob. tgts; Bears in charge:

snapshot


$BTC $USD #bitcoin #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
06 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$BTCUSD / #bitfinex hit mod. prob. target, validates 5', eyes 251.95 per Geo's Off-Set Rule:

snapshot


$BTC #bitcoin #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
06 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$BTCUSD / #bitfinex rolled from 5' as per predictive analysis; Eyes 251.95 per forecast:

snapshot


$BTC $USD #bitcoin #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
eYou 4xForecaster
a year ago
Hi David,

Your point 2 (BLUE) in this chart is 10 dollars lower and is the same as your update on the Bitstamp chart with validates also 5', calls for Geo's Off-Set Rule: Eyes 240.50 as high-prob target (see your Bitstamp chart from 06 July 2015).

snapshot


Your point 2 (BLUE) in this chart from Bitfinix is part of a bigger WolveWave, as illustrated on the Bitstamp chart. So, which of the two targets (point 4 (BLUE) of the smaller WW or point 4 of the larger WW, i.e. point 2 (BLUE)) has the highest probability?

Thank you for the updates! Great work as always.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO eYou
a year ago
Hello @eYou.

I'm away from my chart at this point (using my phone to reply).

Either one of the charts would naturally return to their respective geometry's Point-4 level.

I hope I am addressing your question adequately.

I'll look into the charts whenever I get access to a screen.

David
+1 Reply
eYou 4xForecaster
a year ago
Hi David,

Thank you. I understand, but the patterns in both charts are the same. Therefore, I asked myself why you differentiated between the two charts (Bitstamp and Bitfinix) with two forecasts. In this Bitfinix chart 240.73 is the point-4 level (point 2 in BLUE) for the larger Wolve Wave you illustrated well in the Bitstamp chart, but can be seen here as well in the Bitfinix chart. Therefore, it is not totally clear from the perspective of the geometries alone which of the two levels is the most probable, the 250 zone or 240.

Rgds.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO eYou
a year ago
@eYou - Let me post both charts for illustration, and then I will use the "Reply" to respond to your question ... i'm simply too visual and I really want to answer your question the best I can ...


$BTCUSD - Bitstamp/H4:
snapshot



$BTCUSD - BitFinex/8-hour:
snapshot


David
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
@eYou - Each $BTC has a different target.

In the BitStamp exchange, the geometry developed in a way that it remains submissive to the Geo's OffSet Rule, just as the chart does in the BitFinex, HOWEVER, they each have different plots - Regardless of the corresponding price level, the will BOTH reach the same geometric point. It's just that they have evolved to with a separate Point-4 value, such that:

1 - BitStamp's Point-4 = 240.50

and

2 - BitFinex's Point-4 = 251.95.


David
+1 Reply
eYou 4xForecaster
a year ago
I see, David, but is there not also the same larger Wolve Wave in the Bitfinix chart as you draw it in the Bitstamp chart, where you start with point-1 (BLACK)?

If you do an overlay with this "larger" Wolve Wave geometrie in the Bitfinix chart as well, you also end up with a point-4 level of 240.73 in the Bitfinix chart.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO eYou
a year ago
@eYou - I see what you mean. Yes, I have not included that larger WW/Geo, as it still remains very speculative. Right now, the Geo rule is applying to these smaller (internal) geometries.

I would say, just looking at the BitStamp and BitFinex, that they each could still accommodate their own larger (engulfing) WW or Geo, as well. What will direct whether the price of the larger geometries does is if they reach their respective Point-5 (in which case, price would aim for that larger 1-4 Line) or reach Point-5', where the Geo's Off-Set Rule would define a higher probability of attainment defined by level of Point-4.

I lost my charts this morning, but I'm prettty sure I saved them up somewhere. I will look at the versions where the larger (BLUE) geometry is drawn.

David
+1 Reply
eYou 4xForecaster
a year ago
David, I truly appreciate your time and effort. Thank you.
+1 Reply
abail 4xForecaster
a year ago
David you also had a chart some months ago with some sub 150 targets, are those still legitimate?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO abail
a year ago
@abail - The LONG-TERM outlook still remains unchanged, which is BEARISH.

In the mean time, I have offered targets that were bullish, but limited to the top-side. We are now at these targets, and things will play out the way it would.

However, the pPredictive/Forecasting Model, which produced the bearish targets across a narrow, yet bearish range, remains intact.

Following is the WEEKLY chart I have just posted, reflecting more technical-based outlook, with a bearish biased based on unchanged Predictive/Forecasting Model:

====================
$BTCUSD #bitstamp Stomped, Mulls Decline:

- http://bit.ly/1HM52Hl

$BTC $USD #bitcoin #forex
====================


David
+2 Reply
manipuflated 4xForecaster
a year ago
Do you see a return to MOD & LOW after target?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO manipuflated
a year ago
@manipuflated - It's not what the Model predicts. It offers a line up of targets in decreasing probability strength. Once it reverses (not retraces), it is not expected to reach any further.

David
+2 Reply
10 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$BTCUSD / #bitfinex hit all probability targets; L/T out remains bearish per Predictive Model:

snapshot


$BTC #bitcoin
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
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