Hey, folks. I found some interesting data on the effect that the first 2 halvings had on the price of Bitcoin. I found that BTC moved up by about the same factor both times, and then dropped by about the same factor both times.
So I took those up and down factors and multiplied them by the current price to get some projections. If the first 2 halvings followed this pattern, maybe the third one will too.
Leave your feedback below. I'd be interested in hearing what others have to say about this pattern, and whether or not it will repeat for a third time.
Here is the article I was reading that gave me the idea. www.forbes.com/sites...he-price-of-bitcoin/
This paragraph in particular was what I made my projections on:
"Using CoinDesk data," the author worte, "I analyzed bitcoin prices through this April and found that large volatility events seem to occur around 12-18 months after each halving. The first time, BTC went from around $11 to around $1,100 and back down to $220. The second time, BTC went from around $230 to around $20,000 and back down to around $4,000."
So I took these number and laid them out in a table like this:
1st halving = Start: $11 High: $1,100 Low: $220
2nd halving = Start: $230 High: $20,000 Low: $4,000
Here are the multiplication factors:
1st halving = Start x 100 = High. Then, High x 0.2 = Low
2nd halving = Start x 86.95652174 = High. Then, High x 0.2 = Low
What I found really interesting was that in both halvings, the low was 0.2 times the high. A perfect match. And the factors from Start to High were very close to each other too.
So I took these factors and applied them to the current price, like this:
3rd halving = Start $8,655 x 93.47826087 (average between 100 and 86.95...) gives us a High of $809,054.3478. Then, multiplying that High by 0.2 gives us a Low of $161,810.8696.
Now we must remember it took around 12 to 18 months for the high to be reached after each of the first 2 halvings. So these projections would take us to the second half of 2021, since the next halving is expected this May.
What do you all think? Write below.
So I took those up and down factors and multiplied them by the current price to get some projections. If the first 2 halvings followed this pattern, maybe the third one will too.
Leave your feedback below. I'd be interested in hearing what others have to say about this pattern, and whether or not it will repeat for a third time.
Here is the article I was reading that gave me the idea. www.forbes.com/sites...he-price-of-bitcoin/
This paragraph in particular was what I made my projections on:
"Using CoinDesk data," the author worte, "I analyzed bitcoin prices through this April and found that large volatility events seem to occur around 12-18 months after each halving. The first time, BTC went from around $11 to around $1,100 and back down to $220. The second time, BTC went from around $230 to around $20,000 and back down to around $4,000."
So I took these number and laid them out in a table like this:
1st halving = Start: $11 High: $1,100 Low: $220
2nd halving = Start: $230 High: $20,000 Low: $4,000
Here are the multiplication factors:
1st halving = Start x 100 = High. Then, High x 0.2 = Low
2nd halving = Start x 86.95652174 = High. Then, High x 0.2 = Low
What I found really interesting was that in both halvings, the low was 0.2 times the high. A perfect match. And the factors from Start to High were very close to each other too.
So I took these factors and applied them to the current price, like this:
3rd halving = Start $8,655 x 93.47826087 (average between 100 and 86.95...) gives us a High of $809,054.3478. Then, multiplying that High by 0.2 gives us a Low of $161,810.8696.
Now we must remember it took around 12 to 18 months for the high to be reached after each of the first 2 halvings. So these projections would take us to the second half of 2021, since the next halving is expected this May.
What do you all think? Write below.
So the starting point for this upcoming 3rd halving is not the current price of ~$8,650, but is actually $4,000, which is the low of the 2nd halving.
This means the high should be around $4,000 x 93.47826087 = $373,913.0435. And the low after that should be around $74,782.6087.
Oh, well. I guess I'll just have to settle for 10 car garage instead of a 20 car one.