XBTFX

Bitcoin: just a short reversal?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Crypto regulation was the main word on the crypto market during the previous week. On one side there has been adoption of MiCA regulation in the EU, which was generally perceived as a positive move from EU regulators when it comes to setting rules for crypto businesses within 27 EU member states. Still, the game spoiler was a testimony of SEC Chair Gensler, who noted that there is probably not going to be any kind of new regulation in the US specifically targeted on digital-asset businesses, but crypto firms would need to comply with currently existing Securities Law in the US. For markets, this concretely means that it could be expected more scrutiny from SEC toward the crypto business in the US. Several companies already mentioned the possibility to move their businesses outside from the US, while the crypto market entered into short term price corrections.

BTC started the previous week by testing a $30K resistance line. Due to negative news, there has not been market strength to clearly break this level, and the BTC ended the week some 10% lower, around $27.5K. Two weeks ago, RSI reached a clear overbought side, when some short correction was expected. During the previous week RSI was pushed below level of 50, ending the week around 43. This is indication that the market is currently eyeing the oversold side and some potential that the price could go lower from this level. On a positive side is that the moving average of 50 days continues to diverge from MA200, still supporting the Golden cross.

Charts continue to point to the 25K support line as a level which could be tested in the future period, in order for BTC to start a new cycle to the upside. At the same time, charts are pointing to a higher time frame for this level to be reached, so such a move is unlikely to occur during the week ahead. Level of $28K was historically a short term stop for BTC`s price on a road toward $30K resistance or 25K support line. In this sense, it could be expected that BTC will start a week ahead by testing $28K. At this moment there is a lower probability that this level might be clearly breached, but might lead to oscillating moves around 29K , and down to $26K.

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