Bitcoin drop to 9800, than towards 12K (trading updates!)

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I think we are going to drop towards the 9800. With this move, the right shoulder of the big inverse H&S that many are talking about, would become much stronger and have a better basis to go forward. Now, to be clear, i really don't expect we will even get that far, getting above the 13K , but i am not going to fight it of course. I shorted BTC at 10770 a half hour ago (see my previous chart).

I will post another chart in an update, where you can see the trigger for me to have shorted it now. Look at the orange area, it's not exactly the same as the previous 2, but it did drop out that channel and has been trying to get in again. If i am right, we could drop towards the 10200/10400 but probably even towards 9800, to retest the previous resistance as a big support now, it would really fit this picture, of the blue circle, making another high low at the 9800

Comment: Probably now making a small bear flag, below that trading channel where it fell out. The flag could be seen as a retracement of that channel, will probably fall another 100 points in the next 5 minutes.
Comment: Zoom in
Comment: If they can extend this flag to the yellow area, than (i have seen this move a thousand times already with BTC), than it will just move slowly higher again. I already have 100 points, if it does not drop soon, i will lower my stop towards the entry level for a free trade
Comment: Okay thank you :)
Comment: It should not get above that red area again, otherwise my thought about this move was (partially) wrong
Comment: I have added at 10710, with a stop around 10770 for my complete short position
Comment: It's taking to long, i am out around at money
Comment: Could be seeing a small spike up now, since the market clearly does not want to go down and make a healthy correction
Comment: And there is the spike up i predicted would happen. Lets see if it can make a flag and push another 200 points further. What a funny market it actually is sometimes :)
Comment: I think i will start to build up a big short position from the 11.100 to 11.400. Not sure yet, depends on what kind of moves it will make the rest of the day.
Comment: Change of plan, I think we are going up from here now
Comment: Something like this now, think it will stay within this yellow area, it should start to make higher low now

Comment: It should stay above 10300/10350, otherwise it will drop towards the 9900/10000
Comment: Get ready for some wash trading, 400 BTC between 10430 and 10450, 3 different sell orders :). I would be surprised if it does not push through it
Comment: Guess i was wrong about this one :)
Comment: Seems like the original plan will be seen today, the first chart i mean. But i have another bigger plan in mind for a few days now, you will see part of it in this picture. My expectation for the med term, is a big drop again towards the 6K low. I think we will go above the 11K again, somewhere around the 11.200/11.400, and from there on we will see a big drop towards the 6K. So the big inverse H&S where many people are talking about, will not be completed and will fail. Mostly when that happens, you see an acceleration to the opposite side. I will post this in another chart later on
Comment: This one
Comment: If it gets to that yellow area, i will short it again
Comment: Closing in now
Comment: Thats it already i guess, exactly around the breakout level, the first ones were in, the rest i opened on the way down, my stop is around 10650
Comment: Look at the similarities, i have lowered my stop to that red area,

Comment: I have seen this exact same candle a week ago, around 10250, when it threatened to drop. It was 1 big buy order, pushing the price up 80 points in a blink, and still had 250 BTC left in the bid at that 80 point higher price. That was a 100% rescue operation order, which did work perfectly. Because from that point on it moved slowly sideways and up

Comment: So chances have increased allot that we see something like this. I will try to see if i can find the one i saw a week ago
Comment: I hope my last few updates have convinced you that this market is manipulated to maybe extreme levels. I have seen many charts and pictures in my 20 year TA life, but it's only the Crypto market showing me new ones :). Everything pointing down, almost 100% (on the 1 and 5 min chart) but still we go up. I have seen these moves so many times already with Bitcoin, you learn after a while, when you burn yoursef the first few times
Comment: I have loaded up with short positions, the last ones just went in

Comment: Clearly i jumped in to early, i though i saw some weakness but i was wrong. I have shorted it again just now around the 11.000. I am going to build up a short position up to 11.400. with a wide stop around 11.700

I see 2 options for now, we turn around here with a max of 11.100, of we can go towards the 11.400 and turn down again.
A third option, i think is less likely but could also happen of course, a an up wave towards the 12.000/12.500 making a bull trap with that big inverse H&S everybody is looking at
Comment: The left one is what i thought it would do at that moment (small H&S), i think it will make it here :)
Comment: Still showing strength , almost looked like it would form a small H&S, but it did not even come close to completing the right shoulder (yellow area). Wich shows reall strength, i only got 40% in at 11000 and around 11100. But i wont be adding and lowered my stop to just above the 11100. IF it breaks through, i will stay flat and wait for new signs
Comment: Thats it for today, another bad trade, minimize the loss, stayed within that channel and pushed through the previous high. No real saying to where this can go, i will stay flat and wait
Comment: It's not really pushing through yet, if it's going to make a rising wedge, i will short it again, otherwise gonna stay on the side line. But i will for confirmation first
Comment: Each exchange shows a slightly different picture, this one is from Bitstamp, not the best wedge but has some characteristics. I hope for one last push just above the high, if it does, i will probably short it around 11.200. It has to fit the timeframe, otherwise i wont do it
Comment: I am going short again, a bigger position. Taking to long pushing forward, highs getting less high
Comment: It should not get above the 11.100 now, and especially not above the 11.200, otherwise my theory about this pattern is wrong
Comment: UNless this bull flag is a reall one, we should see an acceleration. If it does not really rally up from here, still means there is to much hesitation to go further
Comment: My theory stand for a part of it, that this wedge is the high for now. As you can see it did reach it's target eventually. But it has to stay below that red area for the wedge to be end of the last move up
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IT follows the main chart pretty well. Might be near 12k when Monday comes around
botje11 Miral_Gandhi
Yes it does, but i think it will fall out of it around these levels. If it breaks the 11.200, than yes chances increase allot that we go towards the 12K
@botje11, Just broke 11.2. Looking good bullish now, But things can change in matter of seconds with btc lol
Thanks, great as always!
OBV Is picking up nicely, I think we will go up.

Cup and Handle 5 min chart
botje11 Miral_Gandhi
@Miral_Gandhi, Yes it looks like it, turned it into one, i thought it would drop below the 10800, but it worked as a support. So i am changing the plan a bit
short already, to what target?
Aamir66 Aamir66
@Aamir66, everything looks positive to me, except that other cryptos aren't quite confirming the move up. they seem to be hesitating.
botje11 Aamir66
@Aamir66, Thats 1 of my main reasons, why i am shorting now, the Alts staying behind. They represent the average sentiment. Bitcoin is mostly a tool! For now i just expect a drop towards 10.000, but depends on what happens there, if we see another wave up or just go down further
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