Is Bitcoin price action about to print its seventh weekly red candle ever? Does look like it.
Such is my free time, looking left on weekly charts (above) price action has never printed 7 weekly red candles in a row before now.
The Bollinger Band is a useful indicator to identify how far a group of values is from the average. Think of the number of people walking through the entrance to a supermarket on a given day. There’s going to be period of time where numbers peak and fall from day beginning to end. A normal distribution (actually more Poisson distribution like) and a fairly deterministic example, however the point is made. Price action is either in or out of the band. 1 or 0. Yes or no. It turns out that a ‘no’ is like shoppers entering the supermarket at 6am or leaving at 11pm.
95% of all candles trade inside the band. Outside this price action is now 2 sigma from mean standard deviation. i.e 5% of all supermarket shoppers coming and going through the entrance.
Why is this significant? Even if you know nothing about statistics, alls you need know is price action interacts with the mean with some regularity, currently that mean is $43k.
There’s something else very interesting, and that’s just how far price action is outside the band since it left the band.
Today price action action is -32% since exiting the band. How does this compare with past events I hear you ask?
March 2020 -42% (3-weekly red candles)
November 2018 -42% (2-weekly red candles)
September 2014 -35% (4-weekly red candles)
And that's it, that is all the events price action history has to show this far outside the band on the weekly chart.
It is very clear reading those examples that price action is considerably oversold. Now the internet is all talk of a bear marker continuing until the year end with $20k and $13k lows. Ignore the emotion , follow the reason.
Bis bald!
Ww
Such is my free time, looking left on weekly charts (above) price action has never printed 7 weekly red candles in a row before now.
The Bollinger Band is a useful indicator to identify how far a group of values is from the average. Think of the number of people walking through the entrance to a supermarket on a given day. There’s going to be period of time where numbers peak and fall from day beginning to end. A normal distribution (actually more Poisson distribution like) and a fairly deterministic example, however the point is made. Price action is either in or out of the band. 1 or 0. Yes or no. It turns out that a ‘no’ is like shoppers entering the supermarket at 6am or leaving at 11pm.
95% of all candles trade inside the band. Outside this price action is now 2 sigma from mean standard deviation. i.e 5% of all supermarket shoppers coming and going through the entrance.
Why is this significant? Even if you know nothing about statistics, alls you need know is price action interacts with the mean with some regularity, currently that mean is $43k.
There’s something else very interesting, and that’s just how far price action is outside the band since it left the band.
Today price action action is -32% since exiting the band. How does this compare with past events I hear you ask?
March 2020 -42% (3-weekly red candles)
November 2018 -42% (2-weekly red candles)
September 2014 -35% (4-weekly red candles)
And that's it, that is all the events price action history has to show this far outside the band on the weekly chart.
It is very clear reading those examples that price action is considerably oversold. Now the internet is all talk of a bear marker continuing until the year end with $20k and $13k lows. Ignore the emotion , follow the reason.
Bis bald!
Ww
Comment:
8 weekly red candles. A new record for price action since... last week!
Comment:
9! 9 weekly red candles. This is a new record for all of Bitcoin’s history since last week at 8 red candles.
Will number 10 print today? And 11, 12 and so on after that?
A couple of observations:
1) Price action remains outside the Bollinger Band. Going all the way back to December 2010 you will not find price action outside the band for this length of time. Astounding. I know the ’mean’ must be tested at some point in the future, it is inevitable, price action cannot remains 2 sigmas from the ‘mean’ without end or it will hit $9k by the end of July! The mean is currently at $41k.
2) The weekly candle printing today is a ‘inverted hammer candle’. If the weekly closes as such, it is an indication of seller exhaustion. Confirmation is a must before trading this pattern. The following weekly candle must closes as green.
Will number 10 print today? And 11, 12 and so on after that?
A couple of observations:
1) Price action remains outside the Bollinger Band. Going all the way back to December 2010 you will not find price action outside the band for this length of time. Astounding. I know the ’mean’ must be tested at some point in the future, it is inevitable, price action cannot remains 2 sigmas from the ‘mean’ without end or it will hit $9k by the end of July! The mean is currently at $41k.
2) The weekly candle printing today is a ‘inverted hammer candle’. If the weekly closes as such, it is an indication of seller exhaustion. Confirmation is a must before trading this pattern. The following weekly candle must closes as green.
Comment:
The 10th weekly candle prints as green, hallelujah. This candle is an ‘inverted hammer’, the reversal is not confirmed until the following weekly candles prints green.
If it is confirmed? Then a reversal pattern is printed. This is very powerful. I wrote a tutorial on the psychology of what is happening, which you can find below. I strongly recommended taking your time reading this to understand just how powerful this signal is.
If it is confirmed? Then a reversal pattern is printed. This is very powerful. I wrote a tutorial on the psychology of what is happening, which you can find below. I strongly recommended taking your time reading this to understand just how powerful this signal is.
Comment:
Continuing on the Bollinger Band theme the next few days should be very interesting indeed.
On the 2-day chart below, the two blue circles, price action is squeezing between the Bollinger Band mean (red line) and price action support since December 2020. One way or another, up or down, this move will be significant. Can’t be much later than June 15th.
How significant?
If a break support occurs, a sell off to $20.5k should result taking price action back to where it was 5 years ago. If the mean resistance breaks a rally to $41k should occur. Time will tell!
Side note: Who would have thought price action could be at $29k? Just as it was in December 2020? At $29k today.. Had you bough the S&P 500 index tracker instead at the 2017 BTC peak you’d be up over 50%. Clearly Bitcoin price action does not follow the stock market, as many claim. Look left.
On the 2-day chart below, the two blue circles, price action is squeezing between the Bollinger Band mean (red line) and price action support since December 2020. One way or another, up or down, this move will be significant. Can’t be much later than June 15th.
How significant?
If a break support occurs, a sell off to $20.5k should result taking price action back to where it was 5 years ago. If the mean resistance breaks a rally to $41k should occur. Time will tell!
Side note: Who would have thought price action could be at $29k? Just as it was in December 2020? At $29k today.. Had you bough the S&P 500 index tracker instead at the 2017 BTC peak you’d be up over 50%. Clearly Bitcoin price action does not follow the stock market, as many claim. Look left.
Comment:
Currently, on the daily chart, price action is -10% outside the Bollinger Band.
Now if you have forgotten what this means, look up..
Now if you have forgotten what this means, look up..
Comment:
** message for club 95% **
On my bullish idea 'The bottom is nearer than you think' the comments are easily 90% bearish. The statistics are laid bare for all. People I've been studying statistics for the last 20 years, if there's one think I dislike about the subject it is the idea we are not in control of the probabilities.
On the daily chart below price action is sitting outside the Bollinger Band by some margin. If you do not know why this is significant, look up, read the idea. Suffice to say the mean is around $28k.
At the same time price action is also sitting on the 200-week moving average all are talking about. The herd is massively bearish. Even though it was the herd that were talking about the 200-week SMA, they are now ignoring it!! You couldn't make it up. Price action is sitting on a loaded catapult and we're all bearish. Well except me of course.
Thank you for the 10k likes on tradingview by the by. As a thank you I've got a gift in the form of an idea that will come out soon. It's not a crypto.
On my bullish idea 'The bottom is nearer than you think' the comments are easily 90% bearish. The statistics are laid bare for all. People I've been studying statistics for the last 20 years, if there's one think I dislike about the subject it is the idea we are not in control of the probabilities.
On the daily chart below price action is sitting outside the Bollinger Band by some margin. If you do not know why this is significant, look up, read the idea. Suffice to say the mean is around $28k.
At the same time price action is also sitting on the 200-week moving average all are talking about. The herd is massively bearish. Even though it was the herd that were talking about the 200-week SMA, they are now ignoring it!! You couldn't make it up. Price action is sitting on a loaded catapult and we're all bearish. Well except me of course.
Thank you for the 10k likes on tradingview by the by. As a thank you I've got a gift in the form of an idea that will come out soon. It's not a crypto.
Comment:
Ha - look how far price action is below the log growth curve. Look left. If you new nothing about TA, would you think this is a selling opportunity or a buying one?
90-95% of market participants believe it is now time to sell.
90-95% of market participants believe it is now time to sell.
Comment:
Don't know if folks are still interested in learning about Bollinger Band - would you like me to keep this idea active? Say so below.
Thought this would be worth sharing. This particular formation occurring on the daily chart is well worth some attention.
Do you see the mouth of the Bollinger Band closing in on itself? I.e. the mouth grows smaller in size? This information is like finding hens teeth. It tells you:
1) The current move is weak. (i.e. fall price action).
2) There is about to be a very powerful move in price action.
It is point 2 that is worth the attention. Switch on the Bollinger Band if you don't have it already. Whichever direction price action starts to move as the mouth of the Bollinger Band opens... that will be a signal that this move in price action shall be very powerful.
Thought this would be worth sharing. This particular formation occurring on the daily chart is well worth some attention.
Do you see the mouth of the Bollinger Band closing in on itself? I.e. the mouth grows smaller in size? This information is like finding hens teeth. It tells you:
1) The current move is weak. (i.e. fall price action).
2) There is about to be a very powerful move in price action.
It is point 2 that is worth the attention. Switch on the Bollinger Band if you don't have it already. Whichever direction price action starts to move as the mouth of the Bollinger Band opens... that will be a signal that this move in price action shall be very powerful.
Comment:
Do we remember what price action outside the Bollinger Band means? The 4hr chart at this time:
Comment:
Always interesting to look at the Bollinger Band when extreme moves in price action occur. On the two 10-hr charts below I had to look all the way back to the Covid crash of March 2020 to find an example when last price action fell so far out of the band.
This correction has exceeded 2020.
Previously price action returned to the correction point in around 10 days. So, yeah, back over $20k in the not too distant future except this time without the sellers. Goodness forbid there’s demand.
Today
March 2020
Whilst I’m on the subject Bollinger Bands… this is the 8-day chart. Each candle is 8 days of data. Day-to-day noise is gone. Do you see? When the mouth of the Band is closing like this it informs us a massive move is coming.
This correction has exceeded 2020.
Previously price action returned to the correction point in around 10 days. So, yeah, back over $20k in the not too distant future except this time without the sellers. Goodness forbid there’s demand.
Today
March 2020
Whilst I’m on the subject Bollinger Bands… this is the 8-day chart. Each candle is 8 days of data. Day-to-day noise is gone. Do you see? When the mouth of the Band is closing like this it informs us a massive move is coming.
Comment:
The last time the BB printed like this.. see chart directly above!
Weekly
Weekly
Comment:
The Bollinger Band on the daily is tight, whichever direction the next move shall likely be energetic.
Comment:
Not since early March has prince action printed candles outside the BB. Look left. A terrific long signal.
Remember 95% of all candles trade inside the band and normally around the mean, which is currently a little over 28k
1-day
Remember 95% of all candles trade inside the band and normally around the mean, which is currently a little over 28k
1-day
BTC
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Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR
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Weblink: www.patreon.com/withoutworries
Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR
