4xForecaster

TRADING STRATEGY - Fibonacci and Hennessy Wave Count | #forex

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
3177 35 13
Traders,

I am merely cutting & pasting a discussion I posted on the Predictive Analysis/Forecasting Room (https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#5eHLst6YxeVqGlaO). As a student of the market, I have to preface here that I have my own methodology, and that I have relied on my own model to define particular R/S and reversal levels.

However, what I am putting forth here is a simpler way to define a potential S/R or reversal level using a Fibonacci forecast level from a higher timeframe, and then returning to the smaller timeframe of interest, and catch the S/R or reversal-based swing trade using the amplitude that is offered from the higher timeframe.

In this example, I used the 0.618-Fib from the DAILY and returned to the H4 chart where it is clearly shown.

I then used the T.S. Hennessy wave count methodology, as outlined within the chart, and define that area of reversal with some satisfactory accuracy.

What then ensued was to simply use the SMALLEST Fibonacci reversal value (i.e.: 0.382) to catch a counter-trend opportunity.

The chart will clearly demonstrate that this is exactly what this method would have allowed you to do by merely calibrating your trade first at the DAILY for a likely 0.618 price reaction, and then down to the H4 for a definable limit to that price reaction.

Whether price decides to go further down or not is really irrelevant in this simple strategy.

As I post this, please give me time to cut/paste the recent discussion I posted regarding more specifics about the occult geometries I employ within my own, albeit more complex, methodology.

I hope that you will appreciate this methodology for its simplicity and for its ability to open your mind's eyes to other, alternate and quite simpler way of trading. I am a passionate student of the market, and my background, which I offer in the discussion, will help clarify the sort of mind bending processing that may go into trading.

If you are interested, then I suggest that you turn to your next level of trading complexity by learning from the likes of Constance Brown for more complex and occult geometries, from Ashraf Laidi for a global understanding of Inter-Market Analysis. And if you liked this method or the material I am offering here, feel free to share around. Please, leave credit where credit is due.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting


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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
18 OCT 2014 - Update;

From Twitter:
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$BTCUSD continues to march along its bullish baseline trendline:

snapshot


via @tradingview | $BTC #bitstamp #bitcoin $USD
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snapshot


(Source: chart dates back to 03 APR 2014)


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
30 AUG 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------------------
$BTCUSD: Altern. #elliottwave count & occult geometries: Reversal @ 563.27 per module:

snapshot


via @tradingview | #bitcoin
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snapshot



As per tweet:

"$BTCUSD: Altern. #elliottwave count & occult geometries: Reversal @ 563.27 per module"

However, this is short of the predictive/forecasting model, so this is a great opportunity to pit the two against one another.

We'll see.

Have a fantastic week-end.

Buckle up, slow down, wear your helmet - Labor Day week-end spells only one name where I work, so don't become a stat.

Cheers!


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
eYou 4xForecaster
Interesting chart, David. Thank you for this idea.

I have a question.

Do you think we break out from this 500-level to the upside and visit your target 563.27 (Bitstamp), or do we break out to the downside first to for example 0.618 Fib level from Daily chart, i.e. 471.00 Bitstamp, and then have a relief rally to the upside and visit your target 563.27. So, in your chart, the retracement in module 2 (green) goes a little deeper, more like the other module-2 (blue box).

Thank you for your charting. I learn a lot.

Have a fantastic week-end, for you too.

Herbert
Reply
Hello @eYou - In the middle of the chart, looking into the GREEN range (defined at the bottom of the chart using Hennessy's alternate wave count), there are TWO modules. The second module's top-level is defined as Point-1.


snapshot





Per model, that Point-1 has an incredible bearish entrenchment packed in it ( = 534.14).

So, although I have left the arrow pointing towards the 563.27 (which is derived NOT from the model but by the occult geo-analysis I have laid in the chart - explanation coming in the future), I remain guarded unless the condition (price > 1) is met. But this would be in the most immediate expectation.

In the intermediate (S/T), I would expect some further unwinding to the downside, simply by imposing Hennessy's count in the field.

In the long-term, the BEARISH targets remain intact and in force per model.

Hope this answers your query.

Have the most wonderful and safest weekend.

Sincerely,


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
eYou 4xForecaster
Thank you David, that makes sense.
+1 Reply
Jameve 4xForecaster
Hi David,

Why is 329 your target lo on the bitfinex chart and 359 on bitstamp?
+1 Reply
Jameve Jameve
and both are 4 hr charts
+1 Reply
Hi, Jameve - The model is defining two separate charts given separate samples of data. The TG-Lo is a qualitative level (i.e.: Lowest considered target are designated as TG-Lo, while higher considered targets are designated as TG-Hi. It's the most extreme available data with the following two characterisits:

1 - TG-Lo or TG-Hi have the LEAST level of probability of getting hit
2 - If and once TG-Lo or TG-Hi gets hit, it carries the HIGHEST probability of a market reversal (not just retracement, but actual reversal.

Reversal is defined as a market turning around to carve out new highs/lows in the opposite direction, past the start of the impulse that led to TG-Hi/TG-Lo validation.

Following is an example illustrating the reversieffect of TG-Lo/TG-Hi:

GER-30
Chart: Predictive Analysis | #DAX  #GER30


Point is that the model prints a number on two positively correlated currencies/bitcoin with a separate exchange, and if it projects a significant discrepancy in the data, this is cause for me to either question the model or simply believe that there may be some uncoupling of the two occurring in the future.

You got my attention on this, because it did not even occur to me that the levels are significantly different in their targets.

Be sure to call my attention if and once price get there, because this is a very intriguing price differential in such two tightly correlated crytpo-currencies.

Excellent notice, and thank you for bringing this up in here.

David
Reply
DanLaffas 4xForecaster
Hi David, am I correctly seeing a 121 pattern here?
snapshot


I've been reading through tradingarsenal.com which you posted on another chart and found this 121 pattern. Is this another tool you use on occasion?
+1 Reply
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