$BTCUSD: 3-in-One | $BTC #BTCe #Bitfinex #Bitstamp #bitcoin
I decided to focus strictly on the price action of all 3 exchanges, namely:
1 - BTCe
2 - Bitfinex
I have averaged all three exchanges on an equal-weight basis, such that the current price reflects a synthetic expression of the following:
(BTCe + Bitfinex + ) / 3
Overall, the synthetic product is meant to reflect a price action averaged across these three relatively large exchanges,such that any differential in price action in one might be attenuated as a total movement, since what we are interested is not so much the differential as much as the directional consensus, much like three pets tied on a leash of relatively low elasticity - What matters is the net move.
There is a lot of information in the chart. While I have erased a lot of the basic , I have left what i perceived at pertinent elements.
There are THREE points at the bottom left of the chart: a, b and c. Points a/b are used to project the thicker dashed , whereas points b/c are used to project the thinner dotted .
What matters here is to see the relative importance of the a/b projection versus that of the b/c projection. Turns out that the a/b projection amasses a higher number of validations than the b/c line. This is not too surprising, since softer tend to belong to more conservative price action, reflecting longer-term behavioral tendencies from better funded market participants.
From the simplest Principle ("EWP") wave count, I have highlighted TWO critical segments:
1 - The first segment represents an impulse move, declared via the 1-2-3-4-5 points in BLUE. There are certainly several other internal wave counts that could be further defined, but this is where I left the chart in its least confusing rendition.
2 - The segment segment represents a combination of simple series of internal A-B-C as well as complex W-X-Y-XX-Z . The more astute wave counter and the type-A Elliotician might have something to ruminate and counter-regurgitate here, but the gist here is to recognize that this protracted segment which emanated from the height at Point-5 represents a complex involution of corrective patterns, pushing price to retrace to ever-more abysmal levels - For the most astute pattern recon person, see if you can see the development of a , with its internal 5-3-5-3-5 pedigree.
- PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL
... Cont'd ...
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Looking strictly at the predictive/forecasting model. I decided to only defined the "Worst-Case Scenario", which is represents by the following nominal target, namely:
- TG-x = 216.80 - 31 OCT 2014.
As you may recall, the predictive/forecasting model offers a numerical target (e.g.: TG-1, TG-2, TG-3, ... TG-n) which represents a future pivot level as price retraces in the Fibonacci order of 0.382 to 0.618 range.
In contrast, the same mo