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$BTCUSD: 3-in-One | $BTC #BTCe #Bitfinex #Bitstamp #bitcoin

Friends,


SYNTHETIC EXPRESSION:

I decided to focus strictly on the price action of all 3 bitcoin exchanges, namely:

1 - BTCe
2 - Bitfinex
3 - Bitstamp

I have averaged all three exchanges on an equal-weight basis, such that the current price reflects a synthetic expression of the following:

(BTCe + Bitfinex + Bitstamp ) / 3



Overall, the synthetic product is meant to reflect a price action averaged across these three relatively large exchanges,such that any differential in price action in one might be attenuated as a total movement, since what we are interested is not so much the differential as much as the directional consensus, much like three pets tied on a leash of relatively low elasticity - What matters is the net move.


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

There is a lot of information in the chart. While I have erased a lot of the basic technical analysis , I have left what i perceived at pertinent elements.

- TRENDLINES:

There are THREE points at the bottom left of the chart: a, b and c. Points a/b are used to project the thicker dashed bullish trendline , whereas points b/c are used to project the thinner dotted bullish trendline .

What matters here is to see the relative importance of the a/b projection versus that of the b/c projection. Turns out that the a/b projection amasses a higher number of validations than the b/c line. This is not too surprising, since softer trendlines tend to belong to more conservative price action, reflecting longer-term behavioral tendencies from better funded market participants.


- ELLIOTT WAVE:

From the simplest Elliott Wave Principle ("EWP") wave count, I have highlighted TWO critical segments:

1 - The first segment represents an impulse move, declared via the 1-2-3-4-5 points in BLUE. There are certainly several other internal wave counts that could be further defined, but this is where I left the chart in its least confusing rendition.

2 - The segment segment represents a combination of simple series of internal A-B-C as well as complex W-X-Y-XX-Z zig-zag . The more astute wave counter and the type-A Elliotician might have something to ruminate and counter-regurgitate here, but the gist here is to recognize that this protracted segment which emanated from the height at Point-5 represents a complex involution of corrective patterns, pushing price to retrace to ever-more abysmal levels - For the most astute Elliott Wave pattern recon person, see if you can see the development of a LEADING DIAGONAL , with its internal 5-3-5-3-5 pedigree.


- PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL

... Cont'd ...

David Alcindor
... Cont'd ...


PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:

Looking strictly at the predictive/forecasting model. I decided to only defined the "Worst-Case Scenario", which is represents by the following nominal target, namely:

- TG-x = 216.80 - 31 OCT 2014.

As you may recall, the predictive/forecasting model offers a numerical target (e.g.: TG-1, TG-2, TG-3, ... TG-n) which represents a future pivot level as price retraces in the Fibonacci order of 0.382 to 0.618 range.

In contrast, the same model would define a nominal target (e.g.: TG-Hi, TG-Lo, and in this case TG-x), which represents a future reversal high/low from which price would reversal in the Fibonacci order of at least 0.618, and further in the upwards extensions of 1.131, 1.414, ... 1.618.


OVERALL:

This synthetic view of the cryptocurrency is meant to look at the directional consensus, where not one or two price might dominate the motion, but instead where the average of the three will define a committed directional step which can subsequently be used for technical purposes.

The timeframe is also a synthetic time element, being a 8-hour range. This means that it favors an institutional recording of price (retail traders are typically involved at the M5, M15, M60 and H4 levels, whereas larger funded players look at price from a H4, H8, daily and above level). So, at H8, surveillance of price action keep an eye on the larger market forces.

Hope this offers a helpful alternative way for you to loo into this crypto-market - Here is the prior, most recent analysis:
-
Bear Brass Bare-Knucle Brigade Pummel Bulls $BTC #bitcoin #Forex


Look for older analyses in each of these exchanges in the "Link To Related Ideas" below.

I appreciate your following thus far and your supportive readership.

Sincerely,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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+5 Reply
01 NOV 2014 - Update: BitFinex

First of all, Happy November! Crazy, it has been hot here in Colorado until tonight. I am now on the road, and I take a bit of my time to review each of the three exchanges. So, in keeping with this habit, I will continue to post M15, M60, H4 charts relative to all three exchanges, namely: Bitfinex, BTCe and Bitstamp. I will take some request for other exchanges, but it may not really add much to the technical perception of this synthetic view already. Still, feel free to chime it - Remember too that I will assume that the readers are advance traders, so I might not spent too much time defining basic technical concepts, patterns and abstract market geometries, unless there is a chance for confusion.

Following is a re-post of the Bitfinex chart at M15:

snapshot


As a reminder, i may "hint" at structural levels that would define a direction. Here, it should be clear that 331.00 is defined as a trigger level that could commit price to slide to lower lows. It may not be a safe level of action for a smaller account trader, but the interest I have in defining this level is that it points to a potential trigger value that would push price in the direction of the target defined by the model. As important, the TG-Lo value should be construed as true for this exchange, and may NOT be the lowest achievable value, now that our mind's eyes are turned to the SYNTHETIC chart, rather than the individual participating exchanges. Again, the interest here is purely technical, as we continually gauge the directional commitment of the market. We are NOT trying to the right, or ahead of the market, but simply attempting to remain with the market. Remember the pet analogy.


In this following larger timeframe, the model was used to define TWO worst-case scenarios, thus yielding two targets. In my experience, the lower of the two is the one to keep in mind, although the nature of the nominal target is that it represents a lower-probability of price attainment, but if and once price gets there, it is likely to act as a strong repulsive force. Once again, if price reaches that level in this Btifinex-H4 chart, I would STILL keep a wary eyes on the SYNTHETIC chart, as we are looking at a consensual move in terms of directional bias:


snapshot



Following is a DAILY chart of the Bitfinex, with a geometric overlay that carries a high-probability of achieving its end. In this case, it would tend to push price back in a reversal/retracement range. In terms of Elliott Wave pattern definition, it would be a best-fit for an Ending Diagonal. I personally prefer to use Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Waves points definitions, since what is implied in the Wolfe Waves pattern is the definition of a 1-4 Line projection acting as a potential Profit-Line ... Tomato, potato.

As we are looking at a total A-B-C correction, this pattern may or may not fit the geometric circumstance in which a ED might be defined, but we are likely at the Wave-C of a correction, and this is typically at this level that such a pattern would emerge:


snapshot



OVERALL - All charts above are Bitfinex. I decided to reproduce the charts as a continuation to a long thread (here is the link to that recent analysis:
Bear Brass Bare-Knucle Brigade Pummel Bulls $BTC #bitcoin #Forex
).

Cheers,

David Alcindor
+7 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
Great thorough analysis...It's good to see confluence in the price targets and directional bias when watching these things myself.
Have a nice weekend David :)
+2 Reply
Thank you @IvanLabrie - you too. Have a good weekend - David
+2 Reply
noto1235 4xForecaster
i like :P
thanx for the time n effort that u put in .
+2 Reply
minbari PRO 4xForecaster
I concur, once again this is simply fantastic analysis
+4 Reply