4xForecaster

$BTCUSD: 3-in-One | $BTC #BTCe #Bitfinex #Bitstamp #bitcoin

Short
Friends,


SYNTHETIC EXPRESSION:

I decided to focus strictly on the price action of all 3 bitcoin exchanges, namely:

1 - BTCe
2 - Bitfinex
3 - Bitstamp

I have averaged all three exchanges on an equal-weight basis, such that the current price reflects a synthetic expression of the following:

(BTCe + Bitfinex + Bitstamp ) / 3



Overall, the synthetic product is meant to reflect a price action averaged across these three relatively large exchanges,such that any differential in price action in one might be attenuated as a total movement, since what we are interested is not so much the differential as much as the directional consensus, much like three pets tied on a leash of relatively low elasticity - What matters is the net move.


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

There is a lot of information in the chart. While I have erased a lot of the basic technical analysis , I have left what i perceived at pertinent elements.

- TRENDLINES:

There are THREE points at the bottom left of the chart: a, b and c. Points a/b are used to project the thicker dashed bullish trendline, whereas points b/c are used to project the thinner dotted bullish trendline.

What matters here is to see the relative importance of the a/b projection versus that of the b/c projection. Turns out that the a/b projection amasses a higher number of validations than the b/c line. This is not too surprising, since softer trendlines tend to belong to more conservative price action, reflecting longer-term behavioral tendencies from better funded market participants.


- ELLIOTT WAVE:

From the simplest Elliott Wave Principle ("EWP") wave count, I have highlighted TWO critical segments:

1 - The first segment represents an impulse move, declared via the 1-2-3-4-5 points in BLUE. There are certainly several other internal wave counts that could be further defined, but this is where I left the chart in its least confusing rendition.

2 - The segment segment represents a combination of simple series of internal A-B-C as well as complex W-X-Y-XX-Z zig-zag . The more astute wave counter and the type-A Elliotician might have something to ruminate and counter-regurgitate here, but the gist here is to recognize that this protracted segment which emanated from the height at Point-5 represents a complex involution of corrective patterns, pushing price to retrace to ever-more abysmal levels - For the most astute Elliott Wave pattern recon person, see if you can see the development of a LEADING DIAGONAL , with its internal 5-3-5-3-5 pedigree.


- PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL

... Cont'd ...

David Alcindor

Comments

08 DEC 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$BTCUSD - Upside break opens to loftier 447.99 and 467.16 targets:



via @UnknownUnicorn305 | $BTC $USD #bitcoin #forex
----------





David Alcindor
+7 Reply
Avatarhash 4xForecaster
Thanks david for the update
+1 Reply
devlspawn 4xForecaster
Wait I'm confused, it broke to the downside so you expect it to go up?
+2 Reply
StuddMuffin devlspawn
It didn't really break to the downside, it just tested support at the $360 level that he posted about prior. If this zone holds, we may be going up.
+2 Reply
StuddMuffin StuddMuffin
I should have said, if this zone holds and it breaks to the upside...
+1 Reply