4xForecaster

Hitting Targets: A Week Synopsis | $BTC #bitcoin #litecoin

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
1705 34 8
Traders,


Following in the thread is a chart just posted highlighting this recent week activity in predicting trend and forecasting targets. It also reflects a bit of my mind in terms of decision process made along the week, across M15, H4 and DAILY charts .

Overall, I share this for the junior traders, passionate as I am, about the constant study of an incessant market of things, values, lines, and movement. It all flows like a river, and it never seems to run out of salmon - This might explain the perpetual existence of bears in our midst.

Thank you for the kind comments and referrals you have made recently.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
QUICK NOTE: Revealing the occult market geometries I use in my trading plan:

I have just finished writing an explanation of the methodology I use in my trading. Sort of a game theory application in which I define the application of Fibonacci projections for risk management to my trading. Very simple and approachable.

Here is the link:

https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#5eHLst6YxeVqGlaO

Hope this shed more light on how I do things - Caveat here is that what I am revealing leaves out details of the predictive/forecasting mode. However, you will see how irrelevant it becomes once you concentrate on the geometric information revealed to your mind's eyes, using the Hennessy system as an overlay.

Hope you enjoy it. Feel free to contact me with any question, or share if you find the information valuable - Credit given to the author is courteous and always appreciated.

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Hi David, am I correct in seeing a Head & Shoulders pattern here in the 5 minute chart?

snapshot


And would this signal the final move down to your TG2 and TG-Lo?
+1 Reply
I wouldn't recommend looking at 5 min trend for H&S, it can be manipulated easily by whales.
+1 Reply
DanLaffas LastBattle
Yeah, I don't usually dwell on the M5. I like to hang around the H4 but it is so slow at the moment.
So is the M5 useful for anything?
+1 Reply
In times of heavy selling/buying maybe I will go with M1/M3/ M5, you can spot any reversal or continuation pattern. However I'll always look at H1 & H4 for the overall trend.
+1 Reply
DanLaffas LastBattle
Thanks for the input. I guess we can agree this isn't a heavy selling/buying time right now :)

Do you have any thoughts as to where this may be headed? With the RSI on both the H1 & H4 hanging around the mid 40's, I can't see any real direction or pattern forming. Might just have to sit on the sidelines for a while.
+1 Reply
Try market facilitation index, all blue bars lately...I think we may be heading down, but it's up to the longer term traders to decide.
Reply
Hello @DanLaffas - Yes, you are correct in the way you have laced the envelope around the points so as to give it this geometric appearance. However, the intentions of the market could be that it had to course through a geometric path that could not do otherwise than give it this shape. Do you have indicators to indicate that the market is likely to roll down, and thus give this pattern validation?

I will post a new Bitfinex chart and see what the predictive/forecasting model says about it. I usually post H4 levels, so I am not sure whether it will do to highlight this pattern. But again, in my technical approach, patterns are last to analyses, just like a coat is put on last before coming out with a conclusion about what the whether is - bad analogy, but oh well.

Instead, I like to look at what's inside of the price action (direction, strength of market, S/R levels, for instance) before deciding on "what to wear" as far as a pattern goes.

The importance of patterns though should not be diminished. For instance, the H&S have an excellent geometry-based forecasting application which does not exist in any other patterns. Let me look into this particular exchange, and supposing that price will go in the way of this H&S (i.e.: declining), I will draw out a few "worst case scenarios" and see how they might compare to recent BTCUSD/Bitstamp exchange.

David Alcindor
Reply
24 AUG 2014 - Update ... "Just for fun" ... 513.83 Target Hit!


Last night, things got a little dull at work, so decided to look into a smaller timeframe in which to apply the model and aim for a finer granulation target @ 513.83.
- Result: ... Bang! Target hit:


$BTCUSD/M15 - BEFORE:
snapshot



$BTCUSD/M15 - AFTER
snapshot



:-)


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
LastBattle PRO 4xForecaster
snapshot


To infinity and beyond? :D
+1 Reply
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