Following in the thread is a chart just posted highlighting this recent week activity in predicting trend and forecasting targets. It also reflects a bit of my mind in terms of decision process made along the week, across M15, H4 and .
Overall, I share this for the junior traders, passionate as I am, about the constant study of an incessant market of things, values, lines, and movement. It all flows like a river, and it never seems to run out of salmon - This might explain the perpetual existence of bears in our midst.
Thank you for the kind comments and referrals you have made recently.
I have just finished writing an explanation of the methodology I use in my trading. Sort of a game theory application in which I define the application of Fibonacci projections for risk management to my trading. Very simple and approachable.
Here is the link:
Hope this shed more light on how I do things - Caveat here is that what I am revealing leaves out details of the predictive/forecasting mode. However, you will see how irrelevant it becomes once you concentrate on the geometric information revealed to your mind's eyes, using the Hennessy system as an overlay.
Hope you enjoy it. Feel free to contact me with any question, or share if you find the information valuable - Credit given to the author is courteous and always appreciated.
Do you have any thoughts as to where this may be headed? With the RSI on both the H1 & H4 hanging around the mid 40's, I can't see any real direction or pattern forming. Might just have to sit on the sidelines for a while.
I will post a new Bitfinex chart and see what the predictive/forecasting model says about it. I usually post H4 levels, so I am not sure whether it will do to highlight this pattern. But again, in my technical approach, patterns are last to analyses, just like a coat is put on last before coming out with a conclusion about what the whether is - bad analogy, but oh well.
Instead, I like to look at what's inside of the price action (direction, strength of market, S/R levels, for instance) before deciding on "what to wear" as far as a pattern goes.
The importance of patterns though should not be diminished. For instance, the H&S have an excellent geometry-based forecasting application which does not exist in any other patterns. Let me look into this particular exchange, and supposing that price will go in the way of this H&S (i.e.: declining), I will draw out a few "worst case scenarios" and see how they might compare to recent BTCUSD/Bitstamp exchange.
Last night, things got a little dull at work, so decided to look into a smaller timeframe in which to apply the model and aim for a finer granulation target @ 513.83.
- Result: ... Bang! Target hit:
$BTCUSD/M15 - BEFORE:
$BTCUSD/M15 - AFTER