4xForecaster

Hitting Targets: A Week Synopsis | $BTC #bitcoin #litecoin

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
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Traders,


Following in the thread is a chart just posted highlighting this recent week activity in predicting trend and forecasting targets. It also reflects a bit of my mind in terms of decision process made along the week, across M15, H4 and DAILY charts .

Overall, I share this for the junior traders, passionate as I am, about the constant study of an incessant market of things, values, lines, and movement. It all flows like a river, and it never seems to run out of salmon - This might explain the perpetual existence of bears in our midst.

Thank you for the kind comments and referrals you have made recently.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
FOLLOWING IS A QUICK SYNOPTIC "WEEK IN REVIEW" OF THE PREDICTIVE ANALYSES AND FORECASTING THAT GENERATED CHARTING:


This review starts up on 12 AUG 2014 with the following series of charts, when price was at a stand-still, and I offered a bearish bias through the following three targets:

1 - TG-1 = 557.43 - 11 AUG 2014
2 - TG-2 = 538.42 - 11 AUG 2014
3 - TG-Lo = 524.20 - 11 AUG 2014

12 AUG 2014
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13 AUG 2014
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The precision of the predictive/forecasting model can be appreciated at those points where either 1) A candle touches the forecast target at its most foreward point, or 2) the candle uses the forecast target as a transitional level to close then open a new candle. In this particular case, both of these events occurred right at TG-1, whereas TG-2 got steam-rolled. What occurred at TG-Lo though was an expression of the first condition, when price tip-toed right at TG-Lo and retreated significantly. In any case, all targets were hit quick precisely.


Despite this successful series of direct hits, what ensued was unusual, in the sense that TG-Lo was expected to act as a reversal level, as it started on this chart:


14 AUG 2014:
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Instead, price started to march on downward, completing a BACA and forming new candles BELOW this TG-Lo. As per the discussion, when this occurs against the model's forecast, there is a good chance that force from a higher timeframe would be interfering within any and all of the lesser timeframes - Note that the H4 chart did produce a weak target at 492.49. Hence, this forced the model to define new BEARISH targets using a higher timeframe, namely the DAILY chart, as follows. The targets that was first defined were:

1 - 492.49
2 - 471.00
3 - 448.84

Note that there was no quantitative (TG-1, TG-2, ...) or qualitative (TG-Lo, TG-Hi) definition assigned, as the model was calibrated to be most precise on its ability to predict towards which quantitative target price would tend to, and at which qualitative target it would reverse. However, at a higher timeframe, this ability to decipher S/R from reversals is not as good a resolution, hence the targets were left without this detail, as per this DAILY chart:


14 AUG 2014 - H4 Chart: Defining a weak target at 492.49:
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14 AUG 2014 - DAILY chart: Defining weak targets at 471.00 and 448.84:
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What ensued was another attainment of the targets. As just discussed, the deciphering of S/R versus reversal levels cannot be guaranteed at a higher timeframe. For this reason, a "Pink Range" (a separate set of measurements independent from the model) was overlaid onto the chart and targets for added definition. The result was satisfactory, as per this resulting series of charts where all three targets (H4: 492.49 and DAILY: 471.00 + 448.84) are progressively hit:


15 AUG 2014:
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16 AUG 2014:
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17 AUG 2014:
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17 AUG 2014:
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18 AUG 2014:
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19 AUG 2014:
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Here is how it looked like in the DAILY chart:


18 AUG 2014:
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20 AUG 2014:
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What ensued was the realization that DAILY timeframes did not matter at that point. As you recall, the higher timeframe had to be used on the assumption that a failure of the predictive/forecasting model at the H4 level (where it was calibrated to work best) would suggest interference of heavier price-moving players, typically at higher timeframes. Now that price had settled, we turned out eyes back to H4, and even used the following M15 timeframes to calibrate the reactive rally, as follows:


20 AUG 2014: M15 Timeframe used to calibrate overhead resistance; Defined as 523.79:
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20 AUG 2014:
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Here is the view using the H4 timeframe, which is the one we would use for most of the predictive analyses and forecasting:


20 AUG 2014:
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And here is the DAILY view, just to keep an eye on the potential overhead hurtles:


20 AUG 2014:
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Now, remember the M15 timeframe with the forecast 523.79? Here we are hitting and reversing at that forecast level:


20 AUG 2014 - M15: Hit forecast target at 523.79:
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20 AUG 2014 - M15: Reverses from forecast target at 523.79
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At this point, we figured that 523.79 was a significant trench war between bulls and bears, and that it would be a matter of time before bears would simply consumed all bulls, based on the predictive model which pointed to more downwards pressure. For this reason, it offered the following two targets:

1 - TG-1 = 496.35 - 21 AUG 2014
2 - TG-2 = 481.92 - 21 AUG 2014


21 AUG 2014 - M15: Defining TWO bearish targets at 496.35 + 481.92:
snapshot



Now, while the targets remained pending, price continued to oscillate up and down in a manner reminiscent of an Elliott Wave's pattern, called a Triple Zig-Zag. While this was not apparent right away, several near-hit with subsequent retractions prompted me to share this quick review of the pattern, as per the following link and chart:


snapshot



Essentially, I became suspicious that, while the predictive/forecasting results were reliable and still valid, the fact that price had not committed to them was for technical reasons of a nature that would be best revealed through Elliott Wave patterning. What unfolded was simply just that:


21 AUG 2014:
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22 AUG 2014:
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22 AUG 2014: Plotting An Elliott Wave Triple Zig-Zag:
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22 AUG 2014:
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Here is the schematic being used, mapping out only 2 degrees of impulsive and corrective waves:


22 AUG 2014: Mapping out 2 degrees of impulsive and corrective waves:
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So, here we are today, Saturday, August 23rd, with a well-mapped out pathway, thanks to a predictive/forecasting model and an overlay of Elliott Wave to gain added confirmation - Result: Another hit, dead-on:


23 AUG 2014:
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OVERALL:

The objective of this synopsis is to show the trader that technical analysis can be played at several levels, such as pattern analysis and other occult geometries, or using in-field or out-of-field indicators, as well as a combination of several of them. In any case, trading has a way to require all faculties at all times, and to constantly adapt to the situation, given the correct interpretation of the event, even if (or I should say, especially when) a "system error" occurs, such as the realization that the predictive model had defined a quantitative target (TG-Lo) which was supposed to act as a reversal level, but instead failed to do so. It did not take to doubt the trading plan which is represented by the model, but simply to interpret conditions that would invalidate the plan and quickly adapt to it, such as recognizing that heavier players in higher timeframes had interfered against H4 and M15 levels of activities.

Another important lesson that I am fond of being reminded by the market every day is that it takes several tools to trade. While sticking to one should help the trader in most of the situations most of the time, I recommend traders to learn broaden their knowledge base by turning to patterns, indicators, trendline and even stepping out of the crowd and read into occult geometries and measurements, such as those encountered in Connie Brown, or Prechter's Elliott Wave material, or simply looking at charts in a totally different way all on your own.

As some of my former students had to endure repeatedly hearing me say:

"Price is a carrot dangling at the end of a stick, held by institutional hands"

This means that all of your orders, positions, stop-losses and take-profits are either known well in advance before they are posted on the chart by way of a predictable mass psychology, or simply by the very disadvantageous fact that institutional traders can in fact see all of these positions on their own screens. In fact, it is the very bank in which you own an account where these traders might be. Beware.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


---------------
Twitter: @4xForecaster
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PS: Here we are now, with a price action looking to come down further to (perhaps) hit TG-2 = 481.92 - 21 AUG 2014

23 AUG 2014: Current price action as of the time of this writing:
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+2 Reply
ChartArt 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thanks for sharing this in-depth analysis with us. Now I need to buy some time :)
+1 Reply
grahvity 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Wow. Thanks for taking the time to lay it all out in one continuous post.
+1 Reply
BuyBitcoin.WS 4xForecaster
2 years ago
do u think we might revisit 523 a last time before heading to 481?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO BuyBitcoin.WS
2 years ago
Hello @EliX - As mentioned recently by @marek.krajecki (see his statement to you below), price is likely to complete what is called a Kiss of Death, or "KoD".

This pattern calls for one small parabola, followed by a deeper parabola, thus completing a TRIPLE-TOP formation. I have demonstrated this pattern in the past with some low-moderate success in terms of expected result. However, here the trend remains BEARISH, therefore, the triple-top is very likely to play itself out.

So, lurk around the 511 corner and knock the bulls on the head (not too hard, though, so that you have a chance to ride them with sustainable friendship later on), and see them roll down a little if they must.

If they stand firm, or the pattern becomes too protracted, then consider staying on the sideline until:

1 - Either price breaks the LOWER level of the first, shallower parabola (risky short);
2 - Or price breaks below the level of the second, deeper parabola;
3 - Or price persists in its ascension at above 1.414 of the large parabola, In which case, expect a rebound off of its top base before it continues to rise.


snapshot



Hoping this makes sense.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
johnrfraser 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Evening David, or Afternoon for you I guess. A long weekend here in the UK so interesting to see if there's an effect...the US bank holidays have been seen to have an effect on BTCUSD price...I wonder if the UKs elusive market influence (small population, yet large market presence) will show up here?
Anyway, looking forward to the Kiss of Death.
Did you discover this pattern?
+1 Reply
johnrfraser johnrfraser
2 years ago
PS nice little 5 wave impulse forming on 4H chart that might neatly fit a 482 end point!
I precariously have a buy order at 467 though...contrary to your target.
A voice screaming in my head,'you always lose out when you defy Davids targets', but as you always say, we trade our own targets and our own strategies...so I will stick to my guns and watch from the sidelines as the rest of you rake in a profit! ;-)
Reply
4xForecaster PRO johnrfraser
2 years ago
Hello @johnrfraser - No, I learned about the KoD pattern from @Jason_Stapleton when I was a member of the "MasterMind" group, an international group of traders gathered under one organization, which he had put together. Anothe trader well versed in this and other patterns is @Akil_Stokes.
Reply
BuyBitcoin.WS 4xForecaster
2 years ago
David your a genius, Bitfinex just hit right on 510+- KOD. sold without any loss and now can rebuy at the lower 400s
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO BuyBitcoin.WS
2 years ago
@EliX - Hey, this is great Elix. Glad this is put to good, profitable use. Have a great week-end - David
+1 Reply
BuyOnPurple PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Incredible post. This is what tradingview was made for. Thank you.
+1 Reply
marek.krajecki BuyOnPurple
2 years ago
Elix what I see on last Daves chart is correction to 511 then to tg2. :)
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO marek.krajecki
2 years ago
@marek.krajecki : Exactly - David
+1 Reply
Intuit PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Fantastic post Dave! Very impressive too. :)

After checking out one of @DanV's charts he opened my eyes to the possibility of a continued bullish retracement to 560 before we are able to fall below the 481-494 levels
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This seems to be in-line with your predicted 560 resistance level.
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I'm still not ruling out the possibility of a bullish retracement to 511 and then a fall back down to 481 before finally continuing on our path up to 560. This would also lead to the completion of the Z wave. My speculative prediction started at the black line and has held true up until here. I originally based this prediction off of your black line and my red trend-line and the 1 fib line.
snapshot
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Intuit
2 years ago
@Scamcoins - Great posts.

Yes, 511.00 is a probable level where bears will push bulls back into a brawl.

At this point, a significant trendline-crossing rally is occurring (see M15 chart below), which brings to sight a break-out which is occurring underway.


snapshot



An alternative pathway could occur based on these blue lines as well, but for the H4 trader, the net outcome would end up looking the same - Here is the alt. pathway:


snapshot


The W-Y-Z pattern above can also be assimilated into a IMP-COR-IMP anatomy which defines a simple Zig-Zag by definition. In any case, the ghosted arrows depict a potential lesser scenario, whereas the blue arrows depict a possible scenario. Again, this may be of little value to the bulls, IF and once bears gain the upper hand.


I agree with you and @DanV regarding the potential range of price action in the higher timeframe, where a significant bearish push-back could take place down to that prior 448.84 to 471.00 range.

However, with so much bullish anticipation, I would not be surprised to see some serious weak-hand shaking causing price to fall as low as low-400 to high 370's. For this (apocalyptic, unthinkable to some) scenario, I have laid down the "worst-case scenario" value, which in the case of Bitcoin is NOT an excessive contingent mindset to preserve. Here is what the price range could look like, in such abysmal scenario, per model:


snapshot



The ghosted arrows are drawn as a less probable scenario, and it would take LARGER institutional hands for this DAILY chart to gain control over price. At this point, model remains reliable at the H4, and if and once it stopped making sense at that level, then we would possibly be dealing with better-funded players, which for any interference above the H4 timeframe, it would have to be such larger players as "big dogs".

We will know if this interference is taking, as we would be dealing with the exact same circumstance as what occurred this past week, when we we "forced" to leave the H4 timeframe temporarily and calibrate the trades at the DAILY level. Turns out that it did offer the correct prediction/forecasts, and that once price resumed its sensible activity at the H4 level, then we were right to assume that higher-frame control had ceased to interfere.

In essence, it's all a matter of keeping an ear on the ground and ear the muffled paws of bears ganging up on bulls grazing in peace. At this point, bulls might push the bears up the hill, but a battle is VERY likely to ensue at the levels defined in the H4 and DAILY charts.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
23 AUG 2014 - Quick note:

Just for fun, let's see whether this current leg up will make it to about 513.83, based on model x hidden geometry. It's a M15 level, so it could be a bit too sensitive a timeframe. That's pretty much what happens when there is nothing going on at work right now ... Dabbling around in occult geometries. What not:


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David
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
I calculated 512.959...let's see what happens :D
+1 Reply
24 AUG 2014 - Update ... "Just for fun" ... 513.83 Target Hit!


Last night, things got a little dull at work, so decided to look into a smaller timeframe in which to apply the model and aim for a finer granulation target @ 513.83.
- Result: ... Bang! Target hit:


$BTCUSD/M15 - BEFORE:
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$BTCUSD/M15 - AFTER
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:-)


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
LastBattle 4xForecaster
2 years ago
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To infinity and beyond? :D
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO LastBattle
2 years ago
@LastBattle - I think there is ample room for optimism here, but the room might require extra chairs for a few VIP bears as well. At least for the time being - David
+1 Reply
LastBattle 4xForecaster
2 years ago
It does make sense too... I've been long since 495, I guess I will just sit tight and see how much it can grow from here.
Having a tight trailing stop loss :)
+1 Reply
BuyBitcoin.WS LastBattle
2 years ago
from here I'd say 460-+ then we head down. will see though, too early still
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO BuyBitcoin.WS
2 years ago
@EliX - Feel free to post your charts for illustration, if you'd like - David
Reply
LastBattle LastBattle
2 years ago
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Looks like the VIP grizzly bear is out, back to the channel I guess? :D
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everthelast 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David, this thread is awesome! Greetings from Vienna/Austria ;)
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO everthelast
2 years ago
Hi, @gerhard.joksch - Thank you! Greeting s from Kansas ... On my way back home to Colorado - David
Reply
DanLaffas
2 years ago
Hi David, am I correct in seeing a Head & Shoulders pattern here in the 5 minute chart?

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And would this signal the final move down to your TG2 and TG-Lo?
+1 Reply
LastBattle DanLaffas
2 years ago
I wouldn't recommend looking at 5 min trend for H&S, it can be manipulated easily by whales.
+1 Reply
DanLaffas LastBattle
2 years ago
Yeah, I don't usually dwell on the M5. I like to hang around the H4 but it is so slow at the moment.
So is the M5 useful for anything?
+1 Reply
LastBattle DanLaffas
2 years ago
In times of heavy selling/buying maybe I will go with M1/M3/ M5, you can spot any reversal or continuation pattern. However I'll always look at H1 & H4 for the overall trend.
+1 Reply
DanLaffas LastBattle
2 years ago
Thanks for the input. I guess we can agree this isn't a heavy selling/buying time right now :)

Do you have any thoughts as to where this may be headed? With the RSI on both the H1 & H4 hanging around the mid 40's, I can't see any real direction or pattern forming. Might just have to sit on the sidelines for a while.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO DanLaffas
2 years ago
Try market facilitation index, all blue bars lately...I think we may be heading down, but it's up to the longer term traders to decide.
Reply
4xForecaster PRO DanLaffas
2 years ago
Hello @DanLaffas - Yes, you are correct in the way you have laced the envelope around the points so as to give it this geometric appearance. However, the intentions of the market could be that it had to course through a geometric path that could not do otherwise than give it this shape. Do you have indicators to indicate that the market is likely to roll down, and thus give this pattern validation?

I will post a new Bitfinex chart and see what the predictive/forecasting model says about it. I usually post H4 levels, so I am not sure whether it will do to highlight this pattern. But again, in my technical approach, patterns are last to analyses, just like a coat is put on last before coming out with a conclusion about what the whether is - bad analogy, but oh well.

Instead, I like to look at what's inside of the price action (direction, strength of market, S/R levels, for instance) before deciding on "what to wear" as far as a pattern goes.

The importance of patterns though should not be diminished. For instance, the H&S have an excellent geometry-based forecasting application which does not exist in any other patterns. Let me look into this particular exchange, and supposing that price will go in the way of this H&S (i.e.: declining), I will draw out a few "worst case scenarios" and see how they might compare to recent BTCUSD/Bitstamp exchange.

David Alcindor
Reply
QUICK NOTE: Revealing the occult market geometries I use in my trading plan:

I have just finished writing an explanation of the methodology I use in my trading. Sort of a game theory application in which I define the application of Fibonacci projections for risk management to my trading. Very simple and approachable.

Here is the link:

https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#5eHLst6YxeVqGlaO

Hope this shed more light on how I do things - Caveat here is that what I am revealing leaves out details of the predictive/forecasting mode. However, you will see how irrelevant it becomes once you concentrate on the geometric information revealed to your mind's eyes, using the Hennessy system as an overlay.

Hope you enjoy it. Feel free to contact me with any question, or share if you find the information valuable - Credit given to the author is courteous and always appreciated.

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
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