4xForecaster
Short

$BTCUSD/BitFinex: Worse Case Scenario | $BTC #bitcoin #litecoin

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
4283 62 25
Traders,


A lot of my work consists of thinking out worse case scenarios. I pretty much look for rocks, count them, and then order the tests that overturns all the rocks. I simply act as the eternal pessimist, and let the facts prove me wrong. This way, there is already a contingency plan for the worse case scenario, and if all is well, I remain pleasantly assured.

In the case of $BTCUSD (here, I decided to look into a different exchange other than the usual Bitstamp where all my charts in bitcoin are derived, simply to look at the same market through a different exchange), the predictive/forecasting model I use put out three "worst-case scenario" targets I would look for in your approach, as you continue to slash your way through the jungle thickets.

The targets are:

1 - TG-1 = 404.96 - 25 AUG 2014

2 - TG-2 = 386.21 - 25 AUG 2014

and

3 - TG-Lo = 329.42 - 25 AUG 2014

The reason I am looking at this exchange (Bitfinex vs. Bitstamp ) is simply that I am interested in comparing the worse-case scenarios that I have posted recently using the same predictive/forecasting model when looking at the Bitstamp exchange.


First, a few technical comments.

1 - The H4 level implies a bearish impulse. The are 3 verifiable degrees in terms of wave count (whether using the standard Elliott Waves Theory (let's call it "SEWT") or the T.S. Hennessy new Elliott Wave technique (let's call it "NEWT") - note that the bearish bias is reinforced by a current BEARISH signal on the predictive/forecasting model.

2 - The first count at the top-left of the chart illustrates parenthesed numbers, and reflects a potential NEWT count. I say potential because a longer impulse would be able to verify its validity.

3 - Assuming that price as more space to fall, and that the current vawe-based situation puts us in the middle of a Wave-III SEWT count, then I would consider TWO potential scenarios:

-- a - ONE that would have price complete a A-B-C correction from the lower-achieved (5) point, crossing the steep overhead resistance symmetrically (see the S1 to S2 speculative projection);

OR

-- b - ANOTHER that would have price continue its downward course along its overhead resistance line and achieve a later geometry to conclude at Point-III (Point-III is defined as a strong bias based on the model's new and future R/S levels defined in TG-1 and TG-2.


In any way, at this point, this is all speculative game theory, looking for the multifaceted ways of getting killed and thinking up ways we would have survived by devising a plot before getting killed - Sort of a future retrospection (huh?).


As explained recently to another trader, I do spend quite a lot of my time looking at internal strength of the asset, once a direction and a target is defined. This is an important part of my trading methodology, as price does have some degree of mechanical nature, and looking for the piece and parts that would give its legs to get from here to there is really limited by the available geometries that repeat themselves across all times, charts and assets.

Let's see where this leads us. Feel free to peruse through the "Links To Related Ideas" for recent and older BTCUSD             charts where this predictive/forecasting method has been applied quick satisfactorily.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
Jameve
2 years ago
I am glad you posted this chart! As much as I'd like to be bull on bitcoin, I think seeing 300s again is inevitable now. The corrective period for bitcoin was arguably over with the rally from 450 to 680 but now a massive top has been put in the mid to high 600s and it's just been making lower highs and lower lows. Bitcoin has been showing its true colors recently.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Jameve
2 years ago
@Jameve, depending how you look at it (i.e.: which time frame, as well as from a trading vs. investing in the asset), Bitcoin remains an EXCELLENT bullish play in the LONG term (i.e.: Daily and above).

The intermediate timeframes offer the chance to look at this currency under "buy at the low" opportunities. I suspect that some traders are running after this asset like a toddle runs after the wagging tail of a golden retriever, but it's the head of the dog that will determine the trend, not the tail. So far, the mechanisms that are put into place by various businesses (large and small) reflect not only an interest in the Bitcoin phenomenon, but a real financial belief that it will hold a place in the future.

Now, whether this translates into an improved or dismal valuation of the currency is a matter of debate, of course. All I have is a palpating cane in my model and a dim intuitive light in my understanding of intermarket analysis to guide my opinion. The rest waits in the recesses of future events, and only then will we know how foolish or smart one must have been to take one action or another.

Unfortunately, there is no forecasting machine strong enough to vacuum the future into the present. That same vacuum works well to clean past mistakes though. And this is all we were ever given to learn.

David
+3 Reply
Maddie
2 years ago
You gave me a good picture of what's (potentially) coming.
In my opinion it could be worse ... I hope you're right if and we don't go any lower than what you're expecting :)
Thanks for sharing this chart!
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Maddie
2 years ago
Thank you @Maddie for your vote of confidence - David
+1 Reply
johnrfraser
2 years ago
Great chart David, great to see a Bitfinex study and with an Elliot Analysis for us learnig EW, thanks so much.
Finally had to GoPro in order to save it as a hands on reference...keeping your logos as requested before.
One question re your targets...the date annotations you give them...do they mean you've identified them on that date? Or you're predicting them to be hit on that date?
If so, the 25 Aug dates make for some dramatic targets tonight?
Many thanks,
John
Reply
DanLaffas johnrfraser
2 years ago
Hey @Johnfraser, the annotation dates refer to the date David identifies the targets.
Reply
johnrfraser DanLaffas
2 years ago
Hi thanks Dan. That makes more sense ;-)
Do you know how to post a picture of the order book in Tradingview btw?
I'm seeing a big stack on the BFX book which to me says, 'Down'.
I'd like to open it up for discussion by way of a post.
Cheers,
John
Reply
devlspawn
2 years ago
Loving all the BTC commentary you've been doing lately. What does the line you've created at 561.47 represent?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO devlspawn
2 years ago
Hi, @devlspawn - Glad you are enjoying the comments. I hope they also help.

The line is a structural top against which any bullish push is likely to get some significant push-back. A M15 trader could use that to get short, say 38.2% from prior impulse.

David
+1 Reply
DanLaffas
2 years ago
Thanks for the Bitfinex chart David. Your thoughts are similar to mine and line up (direction wise) with my weekly charts posted a couple of months back. I had my lows around the 260-280 range, but that is also completely speculative. My forecast is based on BTC hitting it's historical base growth line (thick green line at point D) so the final target really is dependent on how long this takes to resolve. Mind you, this is a Bitstamp chart as Bitfinex data doesn't go back far enough.

Do you see much overall difference between the Stamp and Finex chart patterns? They seem follow each other fairly closely albeit with a few exchange specific moves now and then.


Bitstamp Weekly Chart - Updated 15 July 2014
+1 Reply
PaulAnthony
2 years ago
hey david, you're a mod, so maybe you can look into this. in the bitfinex 1D chart, the candles for 8/22 and 8/23 seem to be missing:
snapshot


any idea what's going on?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO PaulAnthony
2 years ago
@PaulAnthony - I just submitted a query on your behalf - David
Reply
Avatarhash 4xForecaster
2 years ago
David whats your opinion regarding the recent pump, is it going to continue or we are expecting a dump before midnight? (since it crosses the downtrend line but not much volume)
+1 Reply
MoonTrader Avatarhash
2 years ago
There's plenty of volume in the bigger time frames.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO MoonTrader
2 years ago
Hello @MoonTrader - The Richard D. Wyckoff methodology would help in this instance (if any of you traders is familiar with the volume spread analysis of this Bitfinex, feel free to chime in). Large volumes can NOT be coordinated among retail traders, simply because these orders are channeled in ways that allows the brokering houses - where the same accounts are held - to somehow "package and stack" by the same broker taking opposite positions - They would likely absorb lots from sellers, take institutional orders and sell by creating a spread, which is how it would work on an oversimplified explanation. So, it leaves large volumes per unit of times to be the reference in this methodology. What I would look for is exceeding large volumes occurring in the smallest price range (i.e.: where the candle is the tiniest), which would suggest that the large volume (i.e.: increased activity) was allowed to occur while price was literally held down - Sort of accelerating in first gear while holding on the car by pressing on the breaks, if you see what I mean.

Feel free to post that segment of high volume vs. price.

David
Reply
4xForecaster PRO Avatarhash
2 years ago
Hello @Avatarhash - I noticed the whipsaw movement that occurred recently. I am not sure what could cause this, except for large players perhaps taking certain position.

However, the directional bias of the market remains bearish in the composite timeframe (where most retail and institutional players would overlap their activities), therefore, I would look at this as a net bearish event.

Had the move resulted in the model change from bearish to bullish, then I would have called it an early market reversal sign, but this is not what resulted from the event - I wish I knew exactly what is going on among large institutional players as far as bitcoin goes, but I was suppose that next week will likely reveal the net influence of all of their machineries.

David

snapshot
+1 Reply
QUICK NOTE: Revealing the occult market geometries I use in my trading plan:

I have just finished writing an explanation of the methodology I use in my trading. Sort of a game theory application in which I define the application of Fibonacci projections for risk management to my trading. Very simple and approachable.

Here is the link:

https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#5eHLst6YxeVqGlaO

Hope this shed more light on how I do things - Caveat here is that what I am revealing leaves out details of the predictive/forecasting mode. However, you will see how irrelevant it becomes once you concentrate on the geometric information revealed to your mind's eyes, using the Hennessy system as an overlay.

Hope you enjoy it. Feel free to contact me with any question, or share if you find the information valuable - Credit given to the author is courteous and always appreciated.

David Alcindor
+3 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Checking it out asap, thanks!
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Here is a visual example of my methodology - A very approachable and user-friendly composite of a simple A-B-C wave count relative to trendline breaks, counted forward towards a predefine Fib level from a larger timeframe - Easy enough?


EXAMPLE OF DAVID ALCINDOR'S HYBRID USE OF BASIC GEOMETRY, HENNESSY COUNT AND FIBONACCI LEVELS:
snapshot




Let me know if I need to clarify. Feel free to pass along if you like it. Here too, credit to author is the cool thing to do - Much appreciated.

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
(I had to repost the image - It looked like I tried to make the 471.00 target rest at a lower level than it really was - David
Reply
27 AUG 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
--------------------
$BTCUSD broke through a significant overhead resistance; Chooses symmetry:

snapshot


via @tradingview | #$BTC $USD #bitcoin
-------------------


snapshot



Traders,

I should have become apparent by now that, given the two arrows left yesterday on the chart like a fork in the road, price took the high-way and turned its back to the low path.

If you read recently my explanation of Hennessy's wave count, you will see that this example illustrate the game theory approach to this trading conundrum, by simply taking the best two possible pathways given a set of possibilities, on the assumption that although price can randomly walk across the electronic field, it still has to submit itself to a set of rules that characterize, and perhaps help forecast to some extent, how it should proceed, much like you would know which limited move of displacement characterizes each piece of a chessboard game.

In any case, while it remains to be seen whether price will move in the forecast direction towards TG-1, TG-2 and TG-Lo, the most immediate interest here is to see whether price will unfold in a way that would adhere to certain geometries (here, we are looking at a potential symmetric unfolding across the overhead resistance, just crossed), or whether price would push a little further to mind the structural resistance at 561.47. One thing remains sure for the time being, is that the model remains bearish - I will assume that you have your own directional and market strength indicator - such that the lower targets remain valid.

Now that we have some idea about the potential height of this corrective move, we can safely define Limit Orders, as well as set safely-distanced Stop-Losses, and maintain the targets down below in sight.

Therefore, the game theory whereby a solution concept is devised based on a set of assumptions (e.g.: predictive/forecasting model; price movement expands by remains tethered by Fibonacci-limiting values), rules (e.g.: structure as once support and now resistance; Wave count), and known parameters (e.g.: Fibonacci numbers) can be used as a way to project a potential directional outcome, while a risk management, based on the same set of rules, can be defined to cast objective entries, profitable or loss-limiting exits.

It's all how you use what you already know:
1 - Trendline
2 - Fibonacci
3 - Standard patterns

Cheers,


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
27 AUG 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
------------------------
$BTCUSD Elliott + Hennessy wave count overlay; Moving along geometric forecast:

snapshot


via @tradingview | $BTC #bitcoin
------------------------


snapshot



Hello Crypto'ers,

If you have been following any of the new development lately, you will see that I have spent a considerable amount of time sharing essential technical elements of the methodology I use in predicting direction, trend and forecast S/R levels - Some of it can be glanced over several rooms I entertain, such as the Predictive Analysis/Forecasting Room ( https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#5eHLst6YxeVqGlaO ), the Forex Intel Room ( https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#xsmm44S00HaO5wCZ ), as well as the e-MINI S&P500 Room ( https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#Fu3tMkKy660WGNhU ). In the last room (e-Mini), I have gone into step-by-step, detailed explanation of targets, using as many frames as possible, so as to demonstrate the best I could to the peeping trader the level of technical detail invested "in the moment".

Non of this information is difficult. It merely makes use of indicators and measurements that are readily at your disposal, most of which might already be known to you.

Here, we return to the $BTCUSD/Bitfinex chart to assess our situation today. If you recall, yesterday was somewhat of an expose' as I attempted to detail as clearly as possible the two possible pathways that could be anticipated. Admittedly, this will take quite some time, but I have decided to demonstrate how fractals and occult geometries can easily be derived from already known patterns of development. As I mentioned earlier today, everybody has a gait, and everybody leaves footprints. This is in this manner of thinking that I am able to match my predictive/forecasting targets with the probability of a price action pathway.

With the recent queries on Hennessy wave count, I also attempted to simplify his methodology down to the most basic level, such that I have come up with pearls and recommendations that should make it quite easier for the wave counters out there. Here too, the explanation is given in the links offered above.

At this point, I believe that price will know a slight decline to the level defined in the (attached) chart, but will maintain a net bullish move to meet us at the marks left on the chart, either at the termination of the 4th Wave (4C), or at the structural level valued at 461.47.

As mentioned before, the exercise here is based purely on a game theory, given a set of infinite possibilities, but knowing the adversarial gait and footprints. Feel free to refer to the chess board analogy I offered in the links above as well. Whether price prove to follow strictly or loosely the geometries laid down is not so much important as having defined a narrowed-down set of options based on objective data derived from either understanding of certain market rules (e.g.: velocity of price is limited by its ability to expand or contract strictly based on Fibonacci numbers, such that expansions to 1.131, 1.414, 1.618 ... and contractions to 0.214, 0.382, 0.618, ... 0.886, are the quasi-mechanical gears that will cause a rate-limiting signature through which a gait and a footprint can be defined.

If you add relevant geometric envelopes, such as basic patterns in Bats, Sharks, 5-0 and what not, then you not have a quasi-physical ground over which the gait can evolve and the footprints left in a narrower geometric corridor.

Today, I have been able to demonstrate this through the e-Mini sing M5 and M15 frames, which at the time of this writing remains closed spoused to the geometric contours that were assigned ahead of its actual development. I hope that this stimulates further your interest in technical analysis, and that you will take on the challenge to read more on your own. If you need referrals, I can certainly come up with a small but relevant bibliography as well.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Feel free to quote some...always interesting to read your write ups.
+1 Reply
BuyBitcoin.WS 4xForecaster
2 years ago
so a test of 481 at max then bounce upwards to the 4th Wave (4C)
I think u meant "at the structural level valued at 561.47".
Else ty for the explanation, learned something new
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO BuyBitcoin.WS
2 years ago
Hello @EliX - Thank you for this correction. Indeed, as the chart illustrates, the number should read 561.47 and not any thing else, as I wrote in error.

Basically, what you are looking into here would be the same as what a structural trader would look at, when considering to what level could this likely correction rise to. If there was no such thing as a Fibonacci scale, or there was no possibility answering this question other than letting the recent price action tell you what is likely to unfold, then a simple glance at the structures would do.

In this case, we are looking at the possibility of price eroding its way upwards, past the single downward spike and into higher levels where S/R have been defined.

It appears to me that the symmetrical projection of the current 4C point (which remains underway) would define a plausible level of reversal, as it also corresponds to a cluster of S/R levels that marked the very first downward reaction following the highest level in the chart - See the highlight in PURPLE called "Bearish Entrenchment":


snapshot



So, at the point, price remains in a probable correction, with a possible overhead range defined by historical clusters of bear vs. bull embattlement, and the overall trend denotes an incomplete 5-Wave count per EWT, using an alternate count to simplify the measured counts and reinforce the expectation of a bearish net outcome down to the predictive/forecasting-defined targets below.

Time is the only late comer here, and it's the only one capable of telling the story. After it happened, that is.

David
+2 Reply
PaulAnthony 4xForecaster
2 years ago
hey david. how confident are you that we'll hit TG-1 and TG-2?
Reply
So this chart is almost a month old, but we smacked your point III and TG-2 levels *perfectly* ;-) Your more recent charts are showing a breach of bear levels that would indicate no bouncing just dropping to 270s, but this old chart shows a path to point IV before going to the 200s -- care to revisit this forecast?
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO ronfkingswanson
2 years ago
HI, @ronfkingswanson - Yes, I am in the process of doing some house-cleaning in the Bitcoins.

I will be adding the following:

1 - LTCUSD - @ronfkingswanson: What exchange should I consider? Discussion of late recommended BTCe, BitFinex - However, outside research/data suggested NO REAL differentiation in comparative volumes among the 3-4 major exchanges. It indicated that since the fall of MtGox, which used to handle 80-90% of transactions, the Bitcoin crowd has since been scattered across all other available exchanges.

There is a prospect of further consolidation among these exchanges, and I suspect that more "interventions" as may have happened against MtGox could occur once again so as to trim more branches and offer more "control" over these exchanges, but for now, I am not sure which I should include in the analyses.

Care to comment? I trust your judgment considering how long you've been at it and knowing your fundamental grasp on this currency.

David
+1 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi 4XForecaster. Although I'm a complete noob at reading charts and trading I find your charts and explanations very enlightening and informative. I'd just like to thank you for all your efforts and time producing your charts and sharing your insight. Your predictions are remarkable and truly amaze me with their accuracy.

Kind regards
iefan
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
@iefan - Thank you for this very generous feedback. I am very glad I can provide that which lacked in the beginning of my years, which is not so much what and where to trade, as much as realizing how far and wide the field is that allows the mind to wander far and away from conventional thinking.

I have spent countless hours, money and brain power trying to join and be intimate with sheepish herds of conventional indicator grazers. However, it has taken many years to realize that being a love wolf far outdoes being a wooly gregarious animal in terms of understanding of the whole picture of trading, markets and mathematics.

In offering my unconventional thinking - introducing Junior traders to the likes of Constance Brown - I like to think that I provide what was missing the most in my years, so that curiosity about trading, market analysis and the wide spectrum of thinking beyond institutional constraints, becomes an option to the trader interested in becoming his/her own self-sufficient thinker.

I always say that price is the carrot which dangles at the hand of the institutional stick as a way to explain that there are other ways to look at Forex, Indices, stocks and what not. I do not use price in my analysis as a matter of habit by now. I recommend all other traders to pare down to 1-2 indicator(s), and start looking at them as non-price events, where the market may reveal its intentions more clearly that the filtered method by which price often tricks the misinformed herd.

So, if you are a new trader, I highly recommend that you not fall to the hypnotic price method, and that instead, you don your own filters by studying the market in the most unconventional ways. The most efficient method which I postponed the longest has been Elliott Waves Principles, and most recently Gann's methodology, all of which appear so far-fetched, but have stood the wears of time.

A personal method I use is simple geometries. I have also studied the RSI for many years, read books that clearly where revealing truths or perpetrated errors, but I have decided to ignore it all (as RSI believers would coalesce under their own sort of peer-pressured influences) and follow my own rules, which are intrinsic to the predictive/forecasting methodology used in this and other charts (anything that moves, really).

Feel free to discuss and comment on any particular aspect of trading that you enjoy or are reluctant to use most. I like to remind myself that what causes the least curiosity as an object of new learning is probably because it represents the most painful, arduous or lengthy thing to grasp, but may also contain all the answers we seek. I found it to be true regarding Elliott Waves (still a student of it, for life), Gann Square of 9 (still at the fetal stage of understand what it really means, but quite impressed by its temporal resiliency, since it was Gann's plagiarism of a more ancient culture using this method), and satisfaction in being more wrong than right - otherwise how well could we learn things.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
+4 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
TYPO in 2nd paragraph: *I meant a lone wolf, not "love wolf". Interesting typo, though - David
Reply
kakola 4xForecaster
2 years ago
So that's how he does it! :)
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO kakola
2 years ago
LOL. Yes, exactly like that.
Reply
MoonTrader 4xForecaster
2 years ago
4xForecaster, do you actually trade the BTC market? If so, have you found your methodology satisfactorily rewarding?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO MoonTrader
2 years ago
@MoonTrader - I have never opened a Bitcoin or Litecoin account, nor have I ever engaged in any transaction using any of the crypto-currency.

When I joined TradingView as a MOD, I looked at the popularity of the BTC families, and at the time, it appeared that MtGox had the widest audience, hence the most liquidity.

So, I decided to chart BTC as a matter of testing my model - I like to analyze under which set of dynamic conditions (consolidation, break-out, upswings or downswings), or which set of temporal condition (M1 to DAILY) would the model fail to provide a reliable prediction and forecast.

As I was doing this and posting them - I really did not and still do not mind being wrong, since it is really testing the "Nulls hypothesis" of the model. As the model proved able to provide predictions and forecast that would hold well over any set of conditions, it also seemed to attract different sorts of attentions.

At first, I proposed that as BTCUSD had gone to the thousands in value, that it would possibly go to the 600, then 400 and then mid 200's. I collected a fair number of irate replies, but that was not that interesting as collecting data that proved the system solid over time. In the same time, bitcoin traders demanded more analyses and more questions, which I took as a challenge to the Model. Hence, I offered multi-timeframes, and them across exchange analyses, predictions and forecasts.

So far, it has held well, but I continue to regard this currency with the same scientific curiosity as I would any other price-moving asset. Just as with the Forex pairs, indices and other asset I chart, I do not trade or possess all that I chart.

A good friend of mine living in Colorado is a gold trader. So, I started soon after his interest in my charting and analyses to post Gold-related charts.

My real interest is more academic than engaging in some getting rich scheme. I have received offers for the model, but none is for sale, and no lesson could ever reveal its content. It just cannot happen.

If I ever had to open an account, I would ask this group of bitcoin trader more question about it, but the fact that I do not own any of this currency and continue to analyze it for what it does, and not what it would represent in ownership, I feel that I can more freely provide the predictions and forecasts with the objectivity that would be required had this been a paid service.

David
+2 Reply
kakola 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Imagine if Gann or Eliott kept all their discoveries secret though. I'm not saying that you should go out and teach your model, but it seems like all those methods and information would be wasted if you were to die, and we would all be wondering "How did he make those Dead-On predictions?". So you should at least write it down somewhere, right?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO kakola
2 years ago
@kakola - I appreciate the death insurance thing here, but I will keep looking right and left before crossing the roads, and keep putting my seatbelt on - David
Reply
devlspawn 4xForecaster
2 years ago
David can you please clarify what you mean when you say not to pay attention to price or without price? Elliot waves which you refer to are based on price levels in the chart. Are you talking about ignoring *current* price, or finding indicators that have nothing to do with price at all?

+1 Reply
devlspawn devlspawn
2 years ago
NM it looks like you address this in your post below.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO devlspawn
2 years ago
@devlspawn - Yes, sorry for the confusion. I was simply explaining my overall development as a trader. Starting by reading price, then overdoing with indicators and price, then paring down to a few indicators, then re-interpreting and finding new meaning through back testing an even smaller number of indicators, and finally looking only at indicators while ignoring price ("Ghost Trading"), and then finally ceding to wave analysis and now devising my own wave count - The predictive analysis was born out of "Ghost Trading", but I like to re-inforce my trades with a layered approach using each components in the technical analyses, and the Model for predictive analysis and forecast. When I present a fully developed analysis, it will contain a short fundamental view, (typically a bank, institutional or sovereign information if it's a Forex analysis, then a pattern analysis, then a trendline analysis, then a structural analysis, and finally a predictive (directional bias, strength) and analysis and forecast (to include the quantitative TG-1, TG-2, TG-n, ... targets that define shallower retracements, and the qualitative TG-Hi or TG-Lo, which defined deeper retracement - greater than 0.618 - as well as complete reversal) - David
+1 Reply
LastBattle
2 years ago
It've been quite a while since this was posted! Totally dead on!
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO LastBattle
2 years ago
@LastBattle - This proves that M5, M15 or what ever the timeframe does not matter as much as the fractal nature of price motion across space. I used nothing more than the same method I would have used, had this been a smaller or larger timeframe - First of all, do NOT use price as it tends to weave patterns that triggers memories of prior patterns, and build the conviction that price will move this or that way. Instead, consider using your own set of indicators - It really does not pattern which one. What matters is the pattern that reiterates itself as it correlates with a particular price action. What does it do before, during or after price moves in a certain way. How is it repeating itself at the M1, M5, M15, H1, H4 levels (which are really the levels at which most retailers live), and what repetitive, predictive move can you distill from these past movement, going as far back as the data affords (i.e.: doing a formal back-testing with chart in sight and a pen and notepad in your non-dominant hand, redrawing the indicator-to-price correlation in moves.

Sounds weird?

For several years, I traded Bats, then Bats and Crabs, then Bats and Crabs and Sharks, then Bats and Crabs and Sharks and 5-0 patterns. I would pull a pen and pad, and draw the RSI, MACD, TRIX, ... sometimes up to 7 indicators, and minimizing the price field where the pattern had already completed. What I was after was looking for indicators's ability to reveal the pattern on their own, as it price was subservient to the indicator, and that the indicator was the drawing hand of the resulting pattern - I know this is absurd, since the mathematics of any indicator is simply subject to price, and not the way around. Regardless, i decided to draw as if the indicator was the light source, the price the shadow and the chart the canvas screen onto which it would all project.

My next exercise was to simply preempt price by drawing the evolving pattern based on what the indicator did, and thus not regarding price as anything else but an accidental coincidence. I called it "Ghost Trading".

In any case, this is simply to say that there is no magic, noting complicated, and certainly no genius power here, but a sustained exercise to stay away from price.

I have since returned to price as a way to count my waves, and using the hidden geometries and other little discoveries amassed along the way, I have developed my own wave count. However, I recommend any trader to simply go for the jugular, and learn to count waves. Best source is Elliott Waves International, where Bob Prechter and his team provide countless free education on this matter. Any other endeavor after this will appear much easier and perhaps less relevant than the count of undulations that occur in all price-moving asset.

Have a fantastic Saturday, and thank you for noticing the Dead-On call.

David
+3 Reply
LastBattle 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Similar sentiments too, when I first started I had as many indicators as possible but I always end up losing money in the long term. I came to realize that indicators are nothing but a shadow of the price action.

As of now I've yet to truly master how Elliot wave works, my current way of trading are simply based past trend & patterns but that worked really well for this downtrend without much reference to indicators and that more than doubled my 100 Bitcoin here in days.

Hey David, once again I really thank you for taking your time in writing this! Ever since I started following you, my trading skills have improved a lot given your well detailed explanation. I can't be more appreciative than this, and it is certainly not something that money can buy.

Have a great weekend too!
+2 Reply
looks like we just turned on our way to point IV
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO ronfkingswanson
2 years ago
Little grain of bull won't salt the bearish platter: The technicals remain rim-full of saucy bear chunks - David
+1 Reply
ronfkingswanson PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
so you think that current data makes that old 500 target for this wave too optimistic? I'm perfectly happy to short all the way down the next leg, but I'd like to do so from a nice high...
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO ronfkingswanson
2 years ago
@ronfkingswanson - let me look into the internals a bit closer ... The prior two waves are perfect corrective patterns, back to back, and this one straight shot calls for an impulse wave.

COR x COR x IMP = Flat

So, as price fall, first COR moves UP in zig-zag moves, then second COR moves DOWN in zig-zag moves, then IMP moves UP in lesser time and more straight-forward fashion (as it just did).

Again, let me scrub closer at the waves with soap and wring this through the old predictive/forecasting Maytag with some on the spring water I get by my van by the river. BRB.

David
+1 Reply
abail
2 years ago
Do you believe it will touch 490 IV before heading back to your TG Lo?
Amazing how u make things easy!! Impressive David.

Cheers
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO abail
2 years ago
@abail - Yes, it could hiccup its way there, but the bears remain in charge. For now - David
+2 Reply
23 SEP 2014 - update:

From Twitter:
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Is $BTCUSD completing a Bearish #elliottwave Flat? An impulse here would confirm:

snapshot


via @tradingview | $BTC #bitcoin
---------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
LastBattle 4xForecaster
2 years ago