Target hit Dead-On; Expecting Reversal | $BTC #bitcoin #forex

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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Following a protracted consolidation, price finally came down to hit the forecast target on the nose. Target-low was defined on July 26th as "Tg-Lo = 568.22 - 26 JUL 2014".

In the recent analyses, I reminded the traders that all numerical targets (i.e.: TG-1, TG-2, ... etc) tend to act as step-wise points along a reactionary pathway, typically during an interim reversal. However, non-numerical targets such as the predefined TG-Hi and TG-Lo appear as the lowest probability target (i.e.: it would take price a considerable and less likely amount of "force" to reach these levels), but IF and once reached, they would tend to act as reversal levels.

Hence, expect the current level reached, exactly at TG-Lo = 568.22 (electronic data = 568.00), to act as a probable level of reversal.

I will unplug for a little while until a resolute trend emerges out of this situation - For this reason, I will keep the directional indicator as "Neutral".

Appreciate your kind following and friendly referral among other traders.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting

Twitter signals: @4xForecaster
Archives of signals: http://bit.ly/16JMnH8


30 JUL 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
$BTCUSD rallies from forecast TG-Lo; Seek BACA @ Point-3 for added reversal confirmation

via @tradingview #bitcoin


In my experience, a BACA (i.e.: Break-Above, Close-Above) event at Point-3 of the most recent pattern (approx. = $590.00) has to occur FIRST and foremost when seeking added confirmation of a reversal underway.

An entry at TG-Lo was have been best, had you followed the signals, but if you are coming late into the trade, wait for a slight reversal (again, typically NEAR point-3) with the formation of a higher-low (i.e.: a decline that would stop above TG-Lo value ... something I will define as price action develops according to this probable scenario).

If you are new to my predictive analyses and forecasting, feel free to visit my archive where Forex-based calls were made off of my older site - Here is the link: bit.ly/16JMnH8

Appreciate your following and readership - A lot of hours and tedious work go into these analyses, so please feel free to comment, post charts and opine, but in a way that is constructive to all.

Thank you.

David Alcindor
+6 Reply
I agree. My target based on your last chart was hit dead on. This is my adaption of 4xForecaster's last Bitcoin outlook. Original version of this chart with his thoughts can be found here:

+4 Reply
There seems to be some movement right now along with a rising volume.

Here's some key price level with a sell wall of above 400 BTC on Bitstamp:
+1 Reply
LastBattle LastBattle
+1 Reply
3 months of downtrend broken (via RSI !) Good time to go very very very long.

I'm buying an additional 20 BTC now :)
+1 Reply
4xForecaster LastBattle
@LastBattle - RMI is breaking to the upside, Stoch and Stock-RSI are posting a positive divergence (i.e. a lower low in RSI as well as a double-bottom in Stock-RSI) - All of this hiints at a bullish expectation.

However, there needs to be more of a signal than a hint. Be careful with this bear.

I would wait for a price residing above the Ichimoku (currently lacks directional commitment being in the greyed zone), as well as a SAR inversion to support (currently remains under bearish pressure with SAR above price), and RSI remains under the 50-line at 46. All of these would be absorbed by algos as predominant bearish compilation of data.

+3 Reply
01 AUG 2014 - Update:

@Asterix - The pink resistance defines a level which IF valid (i.e.: if price penetrates but fails to cross) would indicate a likely reversal (here to the DOWN side).

HOWEVER, this had NOT occurred. In fact, price has rallied through it like a bull through a field of lambs. Therefore, bears have not defended that level, allowing price to rally, break above then close above with ease.

At this point, the "battle" is structural, as price will have to overcome 607.90. Once accomplished, a NEW bearish entrenchment will wait the bulls IF and when they get there - And that level is expected to be quite fierce.


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Asterix 4xForecaster
Yeah, I agree that we are far from being out of the woods yet, but going through this pink zone "like a bull through a field of lambs" (:)) was quite impressive. Thanks for the updated chart, much appreciated!

Failed on hit...
+1 Reply
4xForecaster LastBattle
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