4xForecaster

Target hit Dead-On; Expecting Reversal | $BTC #bitcoin #forex

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
3285 65 21
Traders,

Following a protracted consolidation, price finally came down to hit the forecast target on the nose. Target-low was defined on July 26th as "Tg-Lo = 568.22 - 26 JUL 2014".

In the recent analyses, I reminded the traders that all numerical targets (i.e.: TG-1, TG-2, ... etc) tend to act as step-wise points along a reactionary pathway, typically during an interim reversal. However, non-numerical targets such as the predefined TG-Hi and TG-Lo appear as the lowest probability target (i.e.: it would take price a considerable and less likely amount of "force" to reach these levels), but IF and once reached, they would tend to act as reversal levels.

Hence, expect the current level reached, exactly at TG-Lo = 568.22 (electronic data = 568.00), to act as a probable level of reversal.

I will unplug for a little while until a resolute trend emerges out of this situation - For this reason, I will keep the directional indicator as "Neutral".

Appreciate your kind following and friendly referral among other traders.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting


--------------------
Twitter signals: @4xForecaster
Archives of signals: http://bit.ly/16JMnH8
--------------------
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
ChartArt
2 years ago
I agree. My target based on your last chart was hit dead on. This is my adaption of 4xForecaster's last Bitcoin outlook. Original version of this chart with his thoughts can be found here:
Forecast And Channel Overlay; Bullish Outlook | #bitcoin $BTC


A possible path of a big Bitcoin correction (4xForecaster chart)
+4 Reply
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artem.koloskov flibbr
2 years ago
Those targets were defined long before descending wedge formed. And we're argument end as high mid and low probability to hit. But low probability still is a probability. Target defined - target hit, what is wrong with that?
+1 Reply
artem.koloskov artem.koloskov
2 years ago
Damn you autocorrect" *were argumented as
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4xForecaster PRO artem.koloskov
2 years ago
@artem.koloskov - I very much appreciate coming to my defense here, but @Flibbr's comment only come at the time when I hit a target of a chart he follows. I am not sure what the benefit is to him, since I do not trade and do not own bitcoin/litecoin or any cryptocurrency, and that I continue to post forecasts and predictive analyses on a pure and sheer interest in technical analysis. All this is done with no request or commercial end. Again, I very much appreciate your following and reading the analyses - David
Reply
4xForecaster PRO flibbr
2 years ago
@flibbr - Appreciate your challenging feedback, but the record stands as it is. Not sure what flip-flopping comment you are referring to. Please, refer to prior thread for a step-by-step definition and completion of the targets - Link:
Bulls Held At Bearish Trench ... Bullish Outlook | $BTC #Bitcoin
.

Target-low was defined on July 26th, and since then followed the following pathway:

snapshot


snapshot


snapshot


snapshot


snapshot


snapshot


snapshot



Please, note that TG-Lo remains in plain sight and pending with each image; each image is taken from a timed/dated analysis with explicit definition of the patterns under development and the definition of each point. It foretells ahead of time that TG-Lo is a target-low with a low probability of getting hit, but if it does, it will likely act as a reversal point.

Did I miss something, or do I simply not quite understand the same point you seem to make everytime I hit a taget dead-on?

I will leave your comments for others to help explain the point you are making. After that while, I will remve your comments, unless they clarify your point and add to the analysis.

Flibbr, no insult here, but I cannot really understand the purpose of your incessant objections whenever a target is hit. Keep in mind that this is all educational and quite fun for me. I would hope that it holds the same value for you as well.

Respectfully,

David Alcindor
+4 Reply
4xForecaster PRO flibbr
2 years ago
@Flibbr - To be fair, I will leave your comment for the next hour, time to let you substantiate your position. After that time, I will have to remove you off of my list.

If you feel that I misled you, feel free to initiate that removal in your own accord.

Thank you.

David Alcindor
+3 Reply
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Jameve flibbr
2 years ago
You need to calm down! Your criticism isn't very constructive right now that is probably why you got modded
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4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
26 JUL 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------------------------
Model points to strong interim support @593.28; If breaks, floor opens to 568.22

snapshot


@tradingview $BTCUSD #bitcoin
---------------------------
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
REPOST OF ORIGINAL ANALYSIS ON JULY 26th, 2014:


snapshot



-----------------------------
Crypto'ers,

Model is currently refining potential downwards support levels. Newly defined:

1 - 593.28 - Defined as a potential support level, which is probably continue to provide only interim support before opening floor to lower levels.

and

TG-Lo = 568.22 - 26 JUL 2014 - Defined today as a strong floor with reversal potentials.

Note that 581.62 and 576.39 are both lower probability levels of support which were defined in an earlier analysis. I have left these values within the chart as they are likely going to play some temporizing role in the current price descent. However, I remain open to the lower probability which TG-Lo offers to price's ability to rappel down to that bearish cavernous level.


Overall, bitcoin remains a favored asset. Businesses are slowly but positively developing infrastructures and forcing regulatory bodies to reconsider the inclusion of this novel currency into the cash flow of domestic industries across the globe.

At this point, the model has turned cautiously bearish WITHOUT a bearish confirmation signal, but I expect this to remain temporary, considering the supportive fundamental background upon which the cryptocurrencies seem to enjoy every month.
--------------------------------------

Thank you,

David
+3 Reply
30 JUL 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
-----------------------
$BTCUSD rallies from forecast TG-Lo; Seek BACA @ Point-3 for added reversal confirmation

snapshot


via @tradingview #bitcoin
-----------------------

Traders,

In my experience, a BACA (i.e.: Break-Above, Close-Above) event at Point-3 of the most recent pattern (approx. = $590.00) has to occur FIRST and foremost when seeking added confirmation of a reversal underway.

An entry at TG-Lo was have been best, had you followed the signals, but if you are coming late into the trade, wait for a slight reversal (again, typically NEAR point-3) with the formation of a higher-low (i.e.: a decline that would stop above TG-Lo value ... something I will define as price action develops according to this probable scenario).

snapshot




If you are new to my predictive analyses and forecasting, feel free to visit my archive where Forex-based calls were made off of my older site - Here is the link: bit.ly/16JMnH8

Appreciate your following and readership - A lot of hours and tedious work go into these analyses, so please feel free to comment, post charts and opine, but in a way that is constructive to all.

Thank you.

David Alcindor
+6 Reply
Comment removed
4xForecaster PRO flibbr
2 years ago
@flibbr,

I have not used any of the moderation tools at my disposition. No ban, just clicking on the same "Spam" and "Delete" buttons that are at your disposition.

Also, I have nothing to sell.

Not sure I understand your point here. I will let you post things that is beneficial, and will remove the comments that are not adding anything to the chart.

Thank you.

David
+1 Reply
LastBattle
2 years ago
snapshot


Instant bounce, interesting.. I'd love to see another retest of 570 before I go all-in, making a nice triple bottom :D
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO LastBattle
2 years ago
@LastBattle - I was wondering in fact whether the recent push represents a 3rd wave of an Elliott 5-Wave move.

However, a "Truncated Wave-5" could occur here as well, which is what I usually expect following a reversal where a reversal is expected. If not, a lower low could occur, but I expect it a lot less at this point - David
+1 Reply
Macainian 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Could you illustrate this possible elliott 5 wave move? I can't see where. I realize that you said it COULD be and I just thought maybe you could illustrate it.
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4xForecaster PRO Macainian
2 years ago
@Macainian - Sorry for this delayed reply ... I am NOT too well versed in EW waves, but I can define some of its known patterns, such as the truncation of Wave-5.

First, here are the characteristics of this "missed" bearish progression:

1 - Wave 5 does not exceed the end of wave 3
2 - Contains necessary five subwaves
3 - Often occurs after a strong third wave

Now, you might or might not agree that these conditions fit within the current price action. Personally, I hold no particular bias, but I do keep this potential in mind. Hence, given this definition of moves and potential development of such pattern, here is what I would submit to consideration "in the back of my mind", while price is still consolidating (which, really, is what a truncation is, by morphology):

snapshot


I hope this sheds some light on what I was proposing earlier.

Thank you for your request and participation.

David Alcindor
Reply
Macainian 4xForecaster
2 years ago
You made a typo. You accidentally spelled "extremely swift reply" as "delayed reply". :)

I see now where your waves are located. I was also wondering what your thoughts/forecast/guess is for a more midtermish time frame. For instance, for September/October. Thanks again for your timely response.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Macainian
2 years ago
Hi, @Macainian - I was just typing you a PM to alert you of my reply. Ah! Yes: I appreciate your humor greatly. I do my best to reply in real time, especially as the chart remains quite active. Plus, it''s always nice to document the development of an idea as soon as possible. Here, the height of corrective Wave-4 and that of the last impulse Wave-5 are designed to (hopefully) anticipate a potential overall move. I'm not good at these details, but I often find it intrigued how some moves can be anticipated.

In the case of a Wave-5 truncation, it bears a lot of interest to me, as it reflects an old trading strategy I use to apply, called "EAGLE", which stands for (E)xtremely (AG)gressive (L)evel of (E)ntry, whereby a trader is given the opportunity to enter at a low risk premium when price carves a higher low (here, in the speculative Point-5) relative to the structure low (at Point-3), and thus minimizes his risk exposure and inversely increases his reward-to-risk ratio.

A similar trade occurred today, when I signaled $AUDCAD, where RR was over 12:1 - trade is still on-going with over 40 pips since entry - Here are the links:

Twitter warning - 9 Hours ago:
- https://twitter.com/4xForecaster/status/494394561457045504

Twitter chart release - 5-Hours ago:
- https://twitter.com/4xForecaster/status/494449772233650179

Twitter Follow-Up - 2Hrs ago:
- https://twitter.com/4xForecaster/status/494494617849434115

Current chart:
snapshot


So, in essence, the EAGLE is a measured entry into a risk-diminished trade, by virtue of an inverse correlation between a deep entry and low risk exposure. In harmonic terms, an EW would certainly see a Truncated Wave-5 completion, I suppose.

Cheers,

David
+1 Reply
Asterix
2 years ago
Hi Dave, we went $10 below your potential reversal target and looks like we will close the current 4h candle below, too. What is you current outlook? Is going below this target a bearish confirmation in your model or is an imminent reversal still possible or even likely?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Asterix
2 years ago
Hi, @Asterix - The current price action clearly demonstrated that the TG-Lo was not going to act as a reversal level. The model is offering lower values (as low as 544.89), indicative of further bearish outlook.

Once a TG-Lo fails as a matter of probability outcome, I let the market run its course and let the model re-run its own analysis. As any predictive/forecasting model, it has to rely on a probability level that rests on less than 100% certainty.

The directional bias of the model remains bearish at this point. A price action rallying above 590 would have contradicted that directional bias and posted a provisional reversal signal. However, this did not occur, and instead, the outcome has only reinforced the bearish bias at this point.

The lowest target in consideration is 544.89 at this point, suggesting additional room down below. That level should stomp price, just as TG-Lo did, but it remains uncertain whether it will have the force to hold the weight of bears, or hold support to propel bulls from that level forward.

Following is the chart I am currently working on, where that lower value is defined:

snapshot


Based on the model, I would expect price to remain able to reach that level as the next level of support.

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Asterix 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thanks Dave for such prompt reply in such turbulent times. I was hoping for a reversal soon, as market seems to be very oversold. Do you also think we are very oversold in the long term (daily) scale?
+1 Reply
LastBattle Asterix
2 years ago
snapshot


I'm sticking to 544 for now... at that level, it completes a 3 drive pattern and a long term triple bottom.
+2 Reply
Asterix LastBattle
2 years ago
Very interesting chart, have not noticed this pattern - thx!
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4xForecaster PRO LastBattle
2 years ago
Excellent observation and choice.

PS: Take a look at the DAILY chart I drew and the note on POSITIVE DIVERGENCE (to NOT confuse by bullish divergence) - David
Reply
4xForecaster PRO LastBattle
2 years ago
The type of Triple Bottom here is called a Kiss Of Death, or "KoD" for short.

This occurs when a small parabola (first double-bottom) is followed by a larger parabola (i.e.: similar base at the bottom, but the second comes with a HIGHER dome, or apex.

David
+1 Reply
LastBattle 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hey David, thanks for the clarification! Its nice to know more about the technicals behind that.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO LastBattle
2 years ago
@LastBattle - Anytime. You are very welcome - David
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Asterix
2 years ago
@Asterix - Looking at the Daily timeframe, all I see is a very optimistic chart, based mainly on a RARE technical phenomenon occurring in RSI called a POSITIVE (not bullish!) DIVERGENCE.

In a Positive Divergence, RSI carves a LOWER low, while price carves a HIGHER low. When this occurs, it has a "mechanical" outcome equivalent to a sling-shot, where RSI because more and more taut to the downside, while price remains ready as it sits at a higher low.

snapshot


Several things worth noting:

1 - RSI is revisiting the level that triggered last bullish impulse
2 - This is occurring while price rests at a HIGHER high, while RSI seeks a LOWER low
3 - This phenomenon is a rare set of confluence indicative of an internal "spring loading" potential
4 - The model's 544.89 defined after today's low falls in line with historical structures
5 - A RELIEF RALLY is likely to occur on the back of above divergence, as well as structural imposition

So, yes, I'd say that the chart looks ripe for something.

Cheers,

David
+3 Reply
Asterix 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi Dave, great chart, my thoughts about daily RSI, only you expressed them better :). Do you think the upward trend (green line on the price chart) is still intact or there is a substantial risk of entering bear phase on daily? I still hope it will not happen and increase my btc position on dips.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Asterix
2 years ago
@Asterix - My main timeframe of consideration is the 4-hour chart. In my experience, a lot more reliable information is going on at the H4 level, but this is likely a matter of opinion.

When it comes to trend/direction determination, I use my model, which is independent of the price field.

Nonetheless, I use the DAILY chart for structural analysis (looking at prior highs/lows that may influence future price action), and I use the M15 timeframe to "calibrate" my analysis off of the model, since the M15 offers a finer granular level of resolution in terms of defining targets, support, resistance and reversal levels.

The trendline and annotation within the RSI were only used to illustrate the particular divergence within the RSI. So, I would not put too much reliance on that Daily, but again, this is how I approach charting as the H4 gives me more time to manage my trades.

Hope this answers your question.

David
+1 Reply
Asterix 4xForecaster
2 years ago
I think it is also simply matter of how often you trade, I prefer to trade rarely (less than once a year per asset, if long term continues) so I was using daily a lot to get an understanding where we are within bigger cycle. But you are right that 4h has many useful information, looks like we are about to triple bottom on it.
+1 Reply
LastBattle Asterix
2 years ago
Its quite unpredictable... Yeah, its best to trade once in a while.
Once a week for me on BTCe, 100 BTC + 3x leverage = 300 BTC. Gains are impressive but loss are equally heavy.

Whereas on BTCChina I have ~60 BTC, and since there's 0 exchange fee I will do so once every day or so. These 2 weeks alone I've gained 4 BTC here..
Reply
Asterix
2 years ago
Do you think reversal occurs already? We have broken up from downward channel on 1h. I remain optimistic, even though there is triple top forming on 15min, RSI seems to signal upward movement.
Reply
LastBattle Asterix
2 years ago
Wow man..... huge ass manipulation on Huobi. Someone just bought 6k BTC within 5 minutes.
I think this should end the downtrend for real, all exchanges are going up right now.
Reply
LastBattle Asterix
2 years ago
snapshot

Broke the upper falling channel... if you've yet to buy, wait for the fall above the downward channel line :)


snapshot

2 hours until 4H close. We'll see if this holds.
Reply
LastBattle LastBattle
2 years ago
BTC PUMPPPPPPPPP
Reply
Asterix LastBattle
2 years ago
Wow, $584 already :)

Yeah, I still have plenty of fiat to buy, would like to at least double my current btc stash. I agree with not buying on breakout, btc raises too fast and I detest panic buying ;), so I buy btc only on dips, if I think that main trend is up. Will see if we bottomed up or if you will see some version of your 3 drives pattern. Will buy more in the latter case :)
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31 JUL 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
-------------------------
$BTCUSD bumps head at significant resist. zone; Remains bearish; support @544 (mod) + 538 (Lo)

snapshot


via @tradingview
-------------------------

Traders,

The overhead zone represents a significant bearish entrenchment. If price BACA it, then a structural trader might consider this as an EARLY (i.e.: unconfirmed) sign of reversal.

Model posts the following:

1 - Bearish strength remains in force
2 - Moderate-probability target near 544
3 - Low-Probability target at @538, with potential reversibility IF and once reached.

Remember, this is a probability game.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Here is the visual for above analysis:

snapshot


David
Reply
LastBattle 4xForecaster
2 years ago
http://imageshack.com/a/img673/1866/CjdkaA.jpg

Looks pretty bearish on BTCChina, Huobi & Okcoin... Rising price and dropping volume.
I'm going to dump my holdings into this rally...
+1 Reply
31 JUL 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------------------------
$BTCUSD: 3rd 4-Hr candle at resist. level validates bearish strength and lower targets

snapshot


@tradingview | #bitcoin
---------------------------


snapshot



Traders,

Directional bias remains BEARISH per model. A recent rally got stomped at a strong bearish entrenchment. A push-back to lower lows remains a higher probability at this point, based on algo model results.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Reply
Asterix 4xForecaster
2 years ago
I am cautiously optimistic, based on some indicators (TSI, RSI) I think we may have bottomed out already and are just starting slow zigzacking upwards. But I do have funds set aside to buy low substantial amount in case I am wrong.
+1 Reply
LastBattle Asterix
2 years ago
snapshot


There's still a chance for another leg down. I've sold half of my Bitcoins for profit now... if it goes above the RSI, I'll get back in.
+2 Reply
Jameve LastBattle
2 years ago
fomo yolo retailers getting excited
+1 Reply
LastBattle LastBattle
2 years ago
Update. 8/2/2014

snapshot

http://imageshack.com/a/img540/6858/vFwyTH.jpg

We'll see if this holds :D 1D RSI is approaching that and 4h StochRSI is pretty much maxed for now.
+1 Reply
Asterix LastBattle
2 years ago
Yeah, there is definitely some room for retracement, recovery has been very rapid. I have noticed that almost nobody believes that we bottomed up, I also do not believe that we are going straight up from here, but I think we may not get as low as $544-$550 on another leg down. Unless of course some really bad news emerges or something will be spanned this way. Last sell off felt really panicky, especially on Stamp, I thought it maybe local capitulation.

And apparently whatever happens longs on Bitfinex remain around 30M, so it looks like we will just have to learn to live with it ;).
+1 Reply
Asterix 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi Dave, we are above your pink resistance area now. Wondering what your thoughts are and what your model predicts now?
+1 Reply
01 AUG 2014 - Update:

@Asterix - The pink resistance defines a level which IF valid (i.e.: if price penetrates but fails to cross) would indicate a likely reversal (here to the DOWN side).

HOWEVER, this had NOT occurred. In fact, price has rallied through it like a bull through a field of lambs. Therefore, bears have not defended that level, allowing price to rally, break above then close above with ease.

At this point, the "battle" is structural, as price will have to overcome 607.90. Once accomplished, a NEW bearish entrenchment will wait the bulls IF and when they get there - And that level is expected to be quite fierce.

snapshot


Cheers,


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Asterix 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Yeah, I agree that we are far from being out of the woods yet, but going through this pink zone "like a bull through a field of lambs" (:)) was quite impressive. Thanks for the updated chart, much appreciated!
Reply
LastBattle Asterix
2 years ago
snapshot


Failed on hit...
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO LastBattle
2 years ago
Meaning?
Reply
LastBattle 4xForecaster
2 years ago
I mean the RSI correctly predicted where it'll stop rising :)
I managed to sell some of my BTC at the top.
+1 Reply
Asterix LastBattle
2 years ago
Yeah, the local top was almost exactly at Dave's $607.9 target - again :)
+1 Reply
02 AUG 2014 - Update

Watch for that 851.55 level

= Donchian mean line
= 50% retracement

David Alcindor
Reply
LastBattle 4xForecaster
2 years ago
What do you mean by the 851.55 level?

If there's a 50% retracement:
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO LastBattle
2 years ago
@LastBattle - Not sure why your data shows anything different from mine, but the 50% level resides at 581.55 on my data:

snapshot


David
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
@LastBattle - Just noted that yourdata is BTCe - That's why.

David
Reply
LastBattle 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Spot on :) Its indeed close to 50% retracement...
I got back in right on the StochRSI reversal. http://imageshack.com/a/img742/144/q6Q18j.jpg
+1 Reply
itsheng 4xForecaster
2 years ago
581.55? Thanks for the update!
+1 Reply
LastBattle itsheng
2 years ago
That makes more sense... :) thanks...
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
- Ooops, my bad: Yes, that was a bad typo indeed - I trst you were able to put it into context though.

David
Reply
LastBattle
2 years ago
3 months of downtrend broken (via RSI !) Good time to go very very very long.

snapshot


I'm buying an additional 20 BTC now :)
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO LastBattle
2 years ago
@LastBattle - RMI is breaking to the upside, Stoch and Stock-RSI are posting a positive divergence (i.e. a lower low in RSI as well as a double-bottom in Stock-RSI) - All of this hiints at a bullish expectation.

However, there needs to be more of a signal than a hint. Be careful with this bear.

I would wait for a price residing above the Ichimoku (currently lacks directional commitment being in the greyed zone), as well as a SAR inversion to support (currently remains under bearish pressure with SAR above price), and RSI remains under the 50-line at 46. All of these would be absorbed by algos as predominant bearish compilation of data.


David
+3 Reply
LastBattle
2 years ago
There seems to be some movement right now along with a rising volume.

Here's some key price level with a sell wall of above 400 BTC on Bitstamp:
snapshot
+1 Reply
LastBattle LastBattle
2 years ago
http://imageshack.com/a/img746/6141/VCz2uI.png - BitBot on Windows 8.1
+1 Reply
07 AUG 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
------------------------------
$BTCUSD: IF 607.20 breaks, THEN roof opens to 626.21 and 645.22

snapshot


via @tradingview | $BTC $USD #bitcoin
-----------------------------


snapshot



Traders,

Potential price action is highlighted by ever fading greyed arrows. Closest has good probability and better than higher up.

I have NOT provided these targets any probability profile (neither numerical as in TG-1 and TG-2, nor qualitative as in TG-Hi) as the model has not confirmed the directional bias to the upside at this point.

More on this as we move along on up.

David Alcindor
Reply
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